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The accurate representation of epistemic uncertainty is a challenging yet essential task in machine learning. A widely used representation corresponds to convex sets of probabilistic predictors, also known as credal sets. One popular way of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-30 Mira Jürgens , Thomas Mortier , Eyke Hüllermeier , Viktor Bengs , Willem Waegeman

We consider the task of evaluating policies of algorithmic resource allocation through randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Such policies are tasked with optimizing the utilization of limited intervention resources, with the goal of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-02-07 Aditya Mate , Bryan Wilder , Aparna Taneja , Milind Tambe

Statistical hypothesis testing and effect size measurement are routine parts of quantitative research. Advancements in computer processing power have greatly improved the capability of statistical inference through the availability of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-18 Michael J. Crosse , John J. Foxe , Sophie Molholm

We propose a new nonparametric test for the supposition of independence between two continuous random variables. The test is based on the size of the longest increasing subsequence of a random permutation. We identified the independence…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-13 Jesus E. Garcia , Veronica A. Gonzalez-Lopez

Online experiments such as Randomised Controlled Trials (RCTs) or A/B-tests are the bread and butter of modern platforms on the web. They are conducted continuously to allow platforms to estimate the causal effect of replacing system…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-24 Olivier Jeunen

Covariate shift in the test data is a common practical phenomena that can significantly downgrade both the accuracy and the fairness performance of the model. Ensuring fairness across different sensitive groups under covariate shift is of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-09 Shreyas Havaldar , Jatin Chauhan , Karthikeyan Shanmugam , Jay Nandy , Aravindan Raghuveer

We develop a central limit theorem (CLT) for a non-parametric estimator of the transition matrices in controlled Markov chains (CMCs) with finite state-action spaces. Our results establish precise conditions on the logging policy under…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-26 Ziwei Su , Imon Banerjee , Diego Klabjan

The Complete Mediation Test (CMT) serves as a specialized approach of mediation analysis to assess whether an independent variable A, influences an outcome variable Y exclusively through a mediator M, without any direct effect. An…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-22 Yichin Tsai , Wan-Tzu Chang , Jia Jyun Sie , Cathy SJ Fann , Iebin Lian

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCT) are the current gold standards to empirically measure the effect of a new drug. However, they may be of limited size and resorting to complementary non-randomized data, referred to as observational, is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-11 Ahmed Boughdiri , Julie Josse , Erwan Scornet

Aggregating multiple effects is often encountered in large-scale data analysis where the fraction of significant effects is generally small. Many existing methods cannot handle it effectively because of lack of computational accuracy for…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-03 Mingya Long , Zhengbang Li , Wei Zhang , Qizhai Li

Species sampling processes have long served as the fundamental framework for modeling random discrete distributions and exchangeable sequences. However, data arising from distinct but related sources require a broader notion of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-03 Beatrice Franzolini , Antonio Lijoi , Igor Prünster , Giovanni Rebaudo

We introduce a random recursive tree model with two communities, called balanced community modulated random recursive tree, or BCMRT in short. In this setting, pairs of nodes of different type appear sequentially. Each node of the pair…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-12 Anna Ben-Hamou , Vasiliki Velona

In the field of multiple hypothesis testing, combining p-values represents a fundamental statistical method. The Cauchy combination test (CCT) (Liu and Xie, 2020) excels among numerous methods for combining p-values with powerful and…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-17 Yanyan Ouyang , Xingwei Liu , Lixing Zhu , Wangli Xu

In this paper we describe the testing procedure for assessing the statistical significance of treatment effect under the experimental conditions of baseline imbalance across covariates and attrition from the survey, using the permutation…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-26 Christis Katsouris

One fundamental statistical question for research areas such as precision medicine and health disparity is about discovering effect modification of treatment or exposure by observed covariates. We propose a semiparametric framework for…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-04 Muxuan Liang , Menggang Yu

Not many tests exist for testing the equality for two or more multivariate distributions with compositional data, perhaps due to their constrained sample space. At the moment, there is only one test suggested that relies upon random…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-12 Volkan Sevinc , Michail Tsagris

In lifetime data, like cancer studies, theremay be long term survivors, which lead to heavy censoring at the end of the follow-up period. Since a standard survival model is not appropriate to handle these data, a cure model is needed. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-31 Ana López-Cheda , M. Amalia Jácome , Ingrid Van Keilegom , Ricardo Cao

Expectations of multivariate functions with missing labels occur in various fields such as transfer learning and average treatment effects. Although non-parametric estimators based on nearest-neighbour matching are frequently used in this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-18 Simon Viel

Causal mediation analysis in cluster-randomized trials (CRTs) is complicated by the presence of multiple mediators, intracluster correlation, and within-cluster interference. Existing mediation methods often fall short in accommodating…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-14 Jiaqi Tong , Chao Cheng , Fan Li

Given observations from a stationary time series, permutation tests allow one to construct exactly level $\alpha$ tests under the null hypothesis of an i.i.d. (or, more generally, exchangeable) distribution. On the other hand, when the null…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-09 Joseph P. Romano , Marius A. Tirlea