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It is commonly required to detect change points in sequences of random variables. In the most difficult setting of this problem, change detection must be performed sequentially with new observations being constantly received over time.…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-05-08 Gordon J Ross

In a sequence of multivariate observations or non-Euclidean data objects, such as networks, local dependence is common and could lead to false change-point discoveries. We propose a new way of permutation -- circular block permutation with…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-06 Hao Chen

We consider an integer-valued time series $Y=(Y_t)_{t\in\Z}$ where the models after a time $k^*$ is Poisson autoregressive with the conditional mean that depends on a parameter $\theta^*\in\Theta\subset\R^d$. The structure of the process…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-05 William Kengne , Isidore Séraphin Ngongo

We consider a popular online change-point problem of detecting a transient change in distributions of i.i.d. random variables. For this change-point problem, several change-point procedures are formulated and some advanced results for a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-08 Jack Noonan

Dynamic networks are ubiquitous for modelling sequential graph-structured data, e.g., brain connectome, population flows and messages exchanges. In this work, we consider dynamic networks that are temporal sequences of graph snapshots, and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-30 Deborah Sulem , Henry Kenlay , Mihai Cucuringu , Xiaowen Dong

In this paper, we consider the structural change in a class of discrete valued time series, which the true conditional distribution of the observations is assumed to be unknown. The conditional mean of the process depends on a parameter…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-03-29 Mamadou Lamine Diop , William Kengne

Modeling functions that are sequentially observed as functional time series is becoming increasingly common. In such models, it is often crucial to ensure data homogeneity. We investigate the sensitivity of graph-based change point…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-25 Jeremy VanderDoes , Shojaeddin Chenouri

While many methods are available to detect structural changes in a time series, few procedures are available to quantify the uncertainty of these estimates post-detection. In this work, we fill this gap by proposing a new framework to test…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-16 Sean Jewell , Paul Fearnhead , Daniela Witten

The problem of sequential change diagnosis is considered, where observations are obtained on-line, an abrupt change occurs in their distribution, and the goal is to quickly detect the change and accurately identify the post-change…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-24 Austin Warner , Georgios Fellouris

We consider change-point estimation in a sequence of high-dimensional signals given noisy observations. Classical approaches to this problem such as the filtered derivative method are useful for sequences of scalar-valued signals, but they…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-01-08 Yong Sheng Soh , Venkat Chandrasekaran

We consider the problem of change-point detection in multivariate time-series. The multivariate distribution of the observations is supposed to follow a graphical model, whose graph and parameters are affected by abrupt changes throughout…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-20 Loïc Schwaller , Stéphane Robin

The detection of change points is a pivotal task in statistical analysis. In the quantum realm, it is a new primitive where one aims at identifying the point where a source that supposedly prepares a sequence of particles in identical…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2017-10-11 Gael Sentís , John Calsamiglia , Ramon Munoz-Tapia

Dynamic networks consist of a sequence of time-varying networks, and it is of great importance to detect the network change points. Most existing methods focus on detecting abrupt change points, necessitating the assumption that the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-13 Yuzhao Zhang , Jingnan Zhang , Yifan Sun , Junhui Wang

Nonlinear dynamical systems are ubiquitous in nature and they are hard to forecast. Not only they may be sensitive to small perturbations in their initial conditions, but they are often composed of processes acting at multiple scales.…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2025-10-06 Chenyu Dong , Davide Faranda , Adriano Gualandi , Valerio Lucarini , Gianmarco Mengaldo

We present a robust test for change-points in time series which is based on the two-sample Hodges-Lehmann estimator. We develop new limit theory for a class of statistics based on the two-sample U-quantile processes, in the case of short…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-05-17 Herold Dehling , Roland Fried , Martin Wendler

In this paper we propose a novel machine-learning method for anomaly detection applicable to data with periodic characteristics where randomly varying period lengths are explicitly allowed. A multi-dimensional time series analysis is…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-05-22 Lia Ahrens , Julian Ahrens , Hans D. Schotten

The aim of change-point detection is to identify behavioral shifts within time series data. This article focuses on scenarios where the data is derived from an inhomogeneous Poisson process or a marked Poisson process. We present a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-07 C. Dion-Blanc , D. Hawat , E. Lebarbier , S. Robin

This paper is devoted to the estimation of the shift parameter in a semiparametric regression model when the distribution of the observation times is unknown. Hence, we propose to use a stochastic algorithm which takes into account the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-12-23 Philippe Fraysse

Many systems of interacting elements can be conceptualized as networks, where network nodes represent the elements and network ties represent interactions between the elements. In systems where the underlying network evolves in time, it is…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-05-05 Ian Barnett , Jukka-Pekka Onnela

This article introduces a novel method for detecting distinctive structural changes in economic data, particularly within frequency distribution tables. The approach identifies significant shifts in the distribution of a variable over time…

Applications · Statistics 2025-09-04 Joanna Dębicka , Edyta Mazurek