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This article shows that a large class of posterior measures that are absolutely continuous with respect to a Gaussian prior have strong maximum a posteriori estimators in the sense of Dashti et al. (2013). This result holds in any separable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-10 Hefin Lambley

It has recently been established that the numerical solution of ordinary differential equations can be posed as a nonlinear Bayesian inference problem, which can be approximately solved via Gaussian filtering and smoothing, whenever a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-01-13 Filip Tronarp , Simo Sarkka , Philipp Hennig

In certain applications involving the solution of a Bayesian inverse problem, it may not be possible or desirable to evaluate the full posterior, e.g. due to the high computational cost of doing so. This problem motivates the use of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-27 Han Cheng Lie , T. J. Sullivan , Aretha Teckentrup

A frequent matter of debate in Bayesian inversion is the question, which of the two principle point-estimators, the maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) or the conditional mean (CM) estimate is to be preferred. As the MAP estimate corresponds to the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-18 Martin Burger , Felix Lucka

Maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation, like all Bayesian methods, depends on prior assumptions. These assumptions are often chosen to promote specific features in the recovered estimate. The form of the chosen prior determines the shape of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-15 Zilai Si , Yucong Liu , Alexander Strang

In order to rigorously define maximum-a-posteriori estimators for nonparametric Bayesian inverse problems for general Banach space valued parameters, we derive and prove certain previously postulated but unproven bounds on small ball…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-07-07 Philipp Wacker

In many instances, the application of approximate Bayesian methods is hampered by two practical features: 1) the requirement to project the data down to low-dimensional summary, including the choice of this projection, which ultimately…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-26 David T. Frazier

Bayesian and frequentist inference are two fundamental paradigms in statistical estimation. Bayesian methods treat hypotheses as random variables, incorporating priors and updating beliefs via Bayes' theorem, whereas frequentist methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Sarthak Mittal , Yoshua Bengio , Nikolay Malkin , Guillaume Lajoie

Solutions to inverse problems that are ill-conditioned or ill-posed may have significant intrinsic uncertainty. Unfortunately, analysing and quantifying this uncertainty is very challenging, particularly in high-dimensional problems. As a…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-07-12 Marcelo Pereyra

Many Bayesian statistical inference problems come down to computing a maximum a-posteriori (MAP) assignment of latent variables. Yet, standard methods for estimating the MAP assignment do not have a finite time guarantee that the algorithm…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-31 Harsh Vardhan Dubey , Ji Ah Lee , Patrick Flaherty

The Bayesian approach is effective for inverse problems. The posterior density distribution provides useful information of the unknowns. However, for problems with non-unique solutions, the classical estimators such as the maximum a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-08-31 Jiguang Sun

Signal processing makes extensive use of point estimators and accompanying error bounds. These work well up until the likelihood function has two or more high peaks. When it is important for an estimator to remain reliable, it becomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-04 Ning Xu , Christopher M. Foster , Jonathan H. Manton

Bayesian models quantify uncertainty and facilitate optimal decision-making in downstream applications. For most models, however, practitioners are forced to use approximate inference techniques that lead to sub-optimal decisions due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-12 Tomasz Kuśmierczyk , Joseph Sakaya , Arto Klami

Bayesian inference allows machine learning models to express uncertainty. Current machine learning models use only a single learnable parameter combination when making predictions, and as a result are highly overconfident when their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-23 Andrew Wood , Moshik Hershcovitch , Daniel Waddington , Sarel Cohen , Peter Chin

Inverse problems use physical measurements along with a computational model to estimate the parameters or state of a system of interest. Errors in measurements and uncertainties in the computational model lead to inaccurate estimates. This…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-02-02 Vishwas Rao , Adrian Sandu

Recently, several researchers have claimed that conclusions obtained from a Bayes factor (or the posterior odds) may contradict those obtained from Bayesian posterior estimation. In this short paper, we wish to point out that no such…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-10-24 Harlan Campbell , Paul Gustafson

The maximum likelihood principle is widely used in statistics, and the associated estimators often display good properties. indeed maximum likelihood estimators are guaranteed to be asymptotically efficient under mild conditions. However in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-12-01 Christophe Culan , Claude Adnet

Approximate Bayesian Computation is a family of likelihood-free inference techniques that are well-suited to models defined in terms of a stochastic generating mechanism. In a nutshell, Approximate Bayesian Computation proceeds by computing…

Computation · Statistics 2010-07-28 Michael Blum

We study the posterior distribution of the Bayesian multiple change-point regression problem when the number and the locations of the change-points are unknown. While it is relatively easy to apply the general theory to obtain the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-08-21 Heng Lian

A demanding challenge in Bayesian inversion is to efficiently characterize the posterior distribution. This task is problematic especially in high-dimensional non-Gaussian problems, where the structure of the posterior can be very chaotic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-04 Tapio Helin , Martin Burger
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