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We introduce a covariance matrix estimator that both takes into account the heteroskedasticity of financial returns (by using an exponentially weighted moving average) and reduces the effective dimensionality of the estimation (and hence…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-02 Szilard Pafka , Marc Potters , Imre Kondor

Identifying the number of factors in a high-dimensional factor model has attracted much attention in recent years and a general solution to the problem is still lacking. A promising ratio estimator based on the singular values of the lagged…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-23 Zeng Li , Qinwen Wang , Jianfeng Yao

This paper considers the estimation and inference of the low-rank components in high-dimensional matrix-variate factor models, where each dimension of the matrix-variates ($p \times q$) is comparable to or greater than the number of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-10-20 Elynn Y. Chen , Jianqing Fan

Factor modeling is an essential tool for exploring intrinsic dependence structures among high-dimensional random variables. Much progress has been made for estimating the covariance matrix from a high-dimensional factor model. However, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-10-26 Quefeng Li , Guang Cheng , Jianqing Fan , Yuyan Wang

The paper considers linear regression problems where the number of predictor variables is possibly larger than the sample size. The basic motivation of the study is to combine the points of view of model selection and functional regression…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-02-24 Alois Kneip , Pascal Sarda

We combine high-dimensional factor models with fractional integration methods and derive models where nonstationary, potentially cointegrated data of different persistence is modelled as a function of common fractionally integrated factors.…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-05-12 Tobias Hartl

Estimates of the approximate factor model are increasingly used in empirical work. Their theoretical properties, studied some twenty years ago, also laid the ground work for analysis on large dimensional panel data models with cross-section…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-08-04 Jushan Bai , Serena Ng

Factor analysis aims to describe high dimensional random vectors by means of a small number of unknown common factors. In mathematical terms, it is required to decompose the covariance matrix $\Sigma$ of the random vector as the sum of a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-08-02 Valentina Ciccone , Augusto Ferrante , Mattia Zorzi

This paper introduces a consistent estimator and rate of convergence for the precision matrix of asset returns in large portfolios using a non-linear factor model within the deep learning framework. Our estimator remains valid even in low…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-08-30 Mehmet Caner , Maurizio Daniele

The factor modeling for high-dimensional time series is powerful in discovering latent common components for dimension reduction and information extraction. Most available estimation methods can be divided into two categories: the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-26 Xinghao Qiao , Zihan Wang , Qiwei Yao , Bo Zhang

Dynamic factor models are often estimated by point-estimation methods, disregarding parameter uncertainty. We propose a method accounting for parameter uncertainty by means of posterior approximation, using variational inference. Our…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-14 Erik Spånberg

This paper develops an inferential theory for high-dimensional matrix-variate factor models with missing observations. We propose an easy-to-use all-purpose method that involves two straightforward steps. First, we perform principal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-26 Yongxia Zhang , Jinwen Liang , Liwen Xu , Keming Yu , Maozai Tian

We study the spectral density of factor models of multivariate time series. By making use of the Random Matrix Theory we analytically quantify the effect of noise dressing on the spectral density due to the finiteness of the sample. We…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Fabrizio Lillo , Rosario N. Mantegna

Recent developments in deep learning techniques have motivated intensive research in machine learning-aided stock trading strategies. However, since the financial market has a highly non-stationary nature hindering the application of…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-12-15 Kentaro Imajo , Kentaro Minami , Katsuya Ito , Kei Nakagawa

This paper develops estimation and inference methods for conditional quantile factor models. We first introduce a simple sieve estimation, and establish asymptotic properties of the estimators under large $N$. We then provide a bootstrap…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-06-21 Qihui Chen

In this paper, we show how to estimate the asymptotic (conditional) covariance matrix, which appears in central limit theorems in high-frequency estimation of asset return volatility. We provide a recipe for the estimation of this matrix by…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-26 Kim Christensen , Mark Podolskij , Nopporn Thamrongrat , Bezirgen Veliyev

Factor models are a class of powerful statistical models that have been widely used to deal with dependent measurements that arise frequently from various applications from genomics and neuroscience to economics and finance. As data are…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-14 Jianqing Fan , Kaizheng Wang , Yiqiao Zhong , Ziwei Zhu

We introduce a HD DCC-HEAVY class of hierarchical-type factor models for high-dimensional covariance matrices, employing the realized measures built from higher-frequency data. The modelling approach features straightforward estimation and…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-07-17 Emilija Dzuverovic , Matteo Barigozzi

The aim of this work is to build financial crisis indicators based on spectral properties of the dynamics of market data. After choosing an optimal size for a rolling window, the historical market data in this window is seen every trading…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-09-11 Antoine Kornprobst , Raphael Douady

We study the estimation of a high dimensional approximate factor model in the presence of both cross sectional dependence and heteroskedasticity. The classical method of principal components analysis (PCA) does not efficiently estimate the…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-10-01 Jushan Bai , Yuan Liao