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We propose Partition Tree, a novel tree-based framework for conditional density estimation over general outcome spaces that supports both continuous and categorical variables within a unified formulation. Our approach models conditional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Felipe Angelim , Alessandro Leite

In this article, we consider a non-parametric Bayesian approach to multivariate quantile regression. The collection of related conditional distributions of a response vector Y given a univariate covariate X is modeled using a Dependent…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-03 Indrabati Bhattacharya , Subhashis Ghosal

Nested nonparametric processes are vectors of random probability measures widely used in the Bayesian literature to model the dependence across distinct, though related, groups of observations. These processes allow a two-level clustering,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-10 Federico Camerlenghi , Riccardo Corradin , Andrea Ongaro

Recursive Bayesian inference, in which posterior beliefs are updated in light of accumulating data, is a tool for implementing Bayesian models in applications with streaming and/or very large data sets. As the posterior of one iteration…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-05 Henry R. Scharf

Inference of latent feature models in the Bayesian nonparametric setting is generally difficult, especially in high dimensional settings, because it usually requires proposing features from some prior distribution. In special cases, where…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-14 Michael Minyi Zhang , Sinead A. Williamson , Fernando Perez-Cruz

Non-linear latent variable models have become increasingly popular in a variety of applications. However, there has been little study on theoretical properties of these models. In this article, we study rates of posterior contraction in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-01-27 Shuang Zhou , Debdeep Pati , Anirban Bhattacharya , David Dunson

Current causal discovery approaches require restrictive model assumptions in the absence of interventional data to ensure structure identifiability. These assumptions often do not hold in real-world applications leading to a loss of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-25 Anish Dhir , Ruby Sedgwick , Avinash Kori , Ben Glocker , Mark van der Wilk

This paper considers the topic of finding prior distributions when a major component of the statistical model depends on a nonlinear function. Using results on how to construct uniform distributions in general metric spaces, we propose a…

Computation · Statistics 2014-05-09 Björn Bornkamp

Analysis of observational studies increasingly confronts the challenge of determining which of a possibly high-dimensional set of available covariates are required to satisfy the assumption of ignorable treatment assignment for estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-23 Chanmin Kim , Mauricio Tec , Corwin M Zigler

We propose a general nonparametric Bayesian framework for binary regression, which is built from modeling for the joint response-covariate distribution. The observed binary responses are assumed to arise from underlying continuous random…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-09-06 Maria DeYoreo , Athanasios Kottas

Multivariate spatial fields are of interest in many applications, including climate model emulation. Not only can the marginal spatial fields be subject to nonstationarity, but the dependence structure among the marginal fields and between…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-21 Paul F. V. Wiemann , Matthias Katzfuss

In this paper, we develop a new and effective approach to nonparametric quantile regression that accommodates ultrahigh-dimensional data arising from spatio-temporal processes. This approach proves advantageous in staving off computational…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-27 Soudeep Deb , Claudia Neves , Subhrajyoty Roy

Effectively modeling non-stationary dynamics in probabilistic multivariate time series(MTS) forecasting requires balancing expressiveness with robustness. Existing parametric approaches benefit from strong inductive biases but lack…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Jinglin Li , Jun Tan , QI Fang , Ning Gui

Bayesian learning using Gaussian processes provides a foundational framework for making decisions in a manner that balances what is known with what could be learned by gathering data. In this dissertation, we develop techniques for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-29 Alexander Terenin

Recent advancements in generative modeling, particularly diffusion models, have opened new directions for time series modeling, achieving state-of-the-art performance in forecasting and synthesis. However, the reliance of diffusion-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-13 Marcel Kollovieh , Marten Lienen , David Lüdke , Leo Schwinn , Stephan Günnemann

In recent years, conditional copulas, that allow dependence between variables to vary according to the values of one or more covariates, have attracted increasing attention. In high dimension, vine copulas offer greater flexibility compared…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-24 Rosario Barone , Luciana Dalla Valle

The problem of developing binary classifiers from positive and unlabeled data is often encountered in machine learning. A common requirement in this setting is to approximate posterior probabilities of positive and negative classes for a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-01-11 Shantanu Jain , Martha White , Michael W. Trosset , Predrag Radivojac

We introduce conditional push-forward neural networks (CPFN), a generative framework for conditional distribution estimation. Instead of directly modeling the conditional density $f_{Y|X}$, CPFN learns a stochastic map…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-23 Nicola Rares Franco , Lorenzo Tedesco

Posterior contractions rates (PCRs) strengthen the notion of Bayesian consistency, quantifying the speed at which the posterior distribution concentrates on arbitrarily small neighborhoods of the true model, with probability tending to 1 or…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-01-31 Federico Camerlenghi , Emanuele Dolera , Stefano Favaro , Edoardo Mainini

The usefulness of Bayesian models for density and cluster estimation is well established across multiple literatures. However, there is still a known tension between the use of simpler, more interpretable models and more flexible, complex…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-07 Henrique Bolfarine , Hedibert F. Lopes , Carlos M. Carvalho
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