Related papers: Unexpected Default in an Information Based Model
We develop a complete analysis of a general entry-exit-scrapping model. In particular, we consider an investment project that operates within a random environment and yields a payoff rate that is a function of a stochastic economic…
We establish the Brownian bridge asymptotics for a scaled self-avoiding walk conditioned on arriving to a far away point $n \vec{a}$ for $\vec{a}$ in $Z^d$, as $n$ increases to infinity.
A robust model predictive control scheme for a class of constrained norm-bounded uncertain discrete-time linear systems is developed under the hypothesis that only partial state measurements are available for feedback. Off-line calculations…
The drift diffusion model (DDM) is a model of sequential sampling with diffusion (Brownian) signals, where the decision maker accumulates evidence until the process hits a stopping boundary, and then stops and chooses the alternative that…
We consider a model for transitory queues in which only a finite number of customers can join. The queue thus operates over a finite time horizon. In this system, also known as the $\Delta_{(i)}/G/1$ queue, the customers decide…
We consider an individual or household endowed with an initial capital and an income, modeled as a deterministic process with a continuous drift rate. At first, we model the discounting rate as the price of a zero-coupon bond at zero under…
We consider a coupled bistable N-particle system driven by a Brownian noise, with a strong coupling corresponding to the synchronised regime. Our aim is to obtain sharp estimates on the metastable transition times between the two stable…
This paper characterizes the probability of a market failure defined as the default of two or more globally systemically important banks (G-SIBs) in a small interval of time. The default probabilities of the G-SIBs are correlated through…
We show that a Brownian motion on $\mathbb{R}_{\ge 0}$ which is allowed to spend a total of $s > 0$ time units outside a bounded interval does not leave the interval at all. This can be seen as an extreme example of entropic repulsion.…
Observing stochastic trajectories with rare transitions between states, practically undetectable on time scales accessible to experiments, makes it impossible to directly quantify the entropy production and thus infer whether and how far…
Interbank contagion can theoretically exacerbate losses in a financial system and lead to additional cascade defaults during downturn. In this paper we produce default analysis using both regression and neural network models to verify…
Information-theoretic Bayesian regret bounds of Russo and Van Roy capture the dependence of regret on prior uncertainty. However, this dependence is through entropy, which can become arbitrarily large as the number of actions increases. We…
We find that factors explaining bank loan recovery rates vary depending on the state of the economic cycle. Our modeling approach incorporates a two-state Markov switching mechanism as a proxy for the latent credit cycle, helping to explain…
We consider data losses in a single node of a packet-switched Internet-like network. We employ two distinct models, one with discrete and the other with continuous one-dimensional random walks, representing the state of a queue in a router.…
This paper develops the first class of algorithms that enable unbiased estimation of steady-state expectations for multidimensional reflected Brownian motion. In order to explain our ideas, we first consider the case of compound Poisson…
We introduce a binary regression accounting-based model for bankruptcy prediction of small and medium enterprises (SMEs). The main advantage of the model lies in its predictive performance in identifying defaulted SMEs. Another advantage,…
This paper develops a new model of business cycles. The model is economical in that it is solved with an aggregate demand-aggregate supply diagram, and the effects of shocks and policies are obtained by comparative statics. The model builds…
We consider the degenerate Einstein's Brownian motion model for the case when the time interval ($\tau$) of particle Jumps before collision (free jumps) reciprocal to the number of particles per unit volume $u(x,t) > 0$ at the point of…
We study a financial market where the risky asset is modelled by a geometric It\^o-L\'{e}vy process, with a singular drift term. This can for example model a situation where the asset price is partially controlled by a company which…
In this work, we consider the case where a source with bursty traffic can adjust the transmission duration in order to increase the reliability. The source is equipped with a queue in order to store the arriving packets. We model the system…