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Estimating the probability of rare channel conditions is a central challenge in ultra-reliable wireless communication, where random events, such as deep fades, can cause sudden variations in the channel quality. This paper proposes a…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-07-08 Tobias Kallehauge , Anders E. Kalør , Pablo Ramírez-Espinosa , Christophe Biscio , Petar Popovski

Although many computational methods for rare event sampling exist, this type of calculation is not usually practical for general nonequilibrium conditions, with macroscopically irreversible dynamics and away from both stationary and…

Mesoscale and Nanoscale Physics · Physics 2015-05-18 Joshua T. Berryman , Tanja Schilling

Many statistical applications involve models for which it is difficult to evaluate the likelihood, but from which it is relatively easy to sample. Approximate Bayesian computation is a likelihood-free method for implementing Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-29 Wentao Li , Paul Fearnhead

In this work we address the problem of approximating high-dimensional data with a low-dimensional representation. We make the following contributions. We propose an inverse regression method which exchanges the roles of input and response,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-09-04 Antoine Deleforge , Florence Forbes , Radu Horaud

Discrete Markov random fields are undirected graphical models that capture complex conditional dependencies between discrete variables. Conducting exact posterior inference in these models is often computationally challenging because…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Giuseppe Arena , Maarten Marsman

Estimating copulas with discrete marginal distributions is challenging, especially in high dimensions, because computing the likelihood contribution of each observation requires evaluating $2^{J}$ terms, with $J$ the number of discrete…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-11-12 D. Gunawan , M. -N. Tran , K. Suzuki , J. Dick , R. Kohn

There has been considerable recent interest in Bayesian modeling of high-dimensional networks via latent space approaches. When the number of nodes increases, estimation based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo can be extremely slow and show poor…

Computation · Statistics 2022-05-30 Emanuele Aliverti , Massimiliano Russo

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) provides us with a way to infer parameters of models, for which the likelihood function is not available, from an observation. Using ABC, which depends on many simulations from the considered model, we…

Approximate Bayesian Computational (ABC) methods (or likelihood-free methods) have appeared in the past fifteen years as useful methods to perform Bayesian analyses when the likelihood is analytically or computationally intractable. Several…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-05-01 Meili Baragatti , Agnès Grimaud , Denys Pommeret

Penalized likelihood and quasi-likelihood methods dominate inference in high-dimensional linear mixed-effects models. Sampling-based Bayesian inference is less explored due to the computational bottlenecks introduced by the random effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-24 Sreya Sarkar , Kshitij Khare , Sanvesh Srivastava

Classic Bayesian methods with complex models are frequently infeasible due to an intractable likelihood. Simulation-based inference methods, such as Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC), calculate posteriors without accessing a likelihood…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-09 Elliot Maceda , Emily C. Hector , Amanda Lenzi , Brian J. Reich

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a likelihood-free approach for Bayesian inferences based on a rejection algorithm method that applies a tolerance of dissimilarity between summary statistics from observed and simulated data.…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2013-09-26 Shigeki Nakagome , Kenji Fukumizu , Shuhei Mano

This work introduces and compares approaches for estimating rare-event probabilities related to the number of edges in the random geometric graph on a Poisson point process. In the one-dimensional setting, we derive closed-form expressions…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-07-14 Christian Hirsch , Sarat B. Moka , Thomas Taimre , Dirk P. Kroese

Driven by the critical needs of biomanufacturing 4.0, we introduce a probabilistic knowledge graph hybrid model characterizing the risk- and science-based understanding of bioprocess mechanisms. It can faithfully capture the important…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-03 Wei Xie , Keqi Wang , Hua Zheng , Ben Feng

Genetic data obtained on population samples convey information about their evolutionary history. Inference methods can extract this information (at least partially) but they require sophisticated statistical techniques that have been made…

By their very nature, rare event probabilities are expensive to compute; they are also delicate to estimate as their value strongly depends on distributional assumptions on the model parameters. Hence, understanding the sensitivity of the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-10-28 Michael Merritt , Alen Alexanderian , Pierre Gremaud

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has advanced in two decades from a seminal idea to a practically applicable inference tool for simulator-based statistical models, which are becoming increasingly popular in many research domains. The…

In this paper we develop a methodology that we call split sampling methods to estimate high dimensional expectations and rare event probabilities. Split sampling uses an auxiliary variable MCMC simulation and expresses the expectation of…

Computation · Statistics 2013-11-04 John R. Birge , Changgee Chang , Nicholas G. Polson

We consider posterior sampling in the very common Bayesian hierarchical model in which observed data depends on high-dimensional latent variables that, in turn, depend on relatively few hyperparameters. When the full conditional over the…

Computation · Statistics 2016-10-24 Richard A. Norton , J. Andres Christen , Colin Fox

Factors models are routinely used to analyze high-dimensional data in both single-study and multi-study settings. Bayesian inference for such models relies on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods which scale poorly as the number of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-29 Blake Hansen , Alejandra Avalos-Pacheco , Massimiliano Russo , Roberta De Vito
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