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This paper studies estimation of causal effects in a panel data setting. We introduce a new estimator, the Triply RObust Panel (TROP) estimator, that combines (i) a flexible model for the potential outcomes based on a low-rank factor…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-11 Susan Athey , Guido Imbens , Zhaonan Qu , Davide Viviano

Long-term causal inference has drawn increasing attention in many scientific domains. Existing methods mainly focus on estimating average long-term causal effects by combining long-term observational data and short-term experimental data.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Weilin Chen , Ruichu Cai , Junjie Wan , Zeqin Yang , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

This paper introduces a novel framework for estimation and inference in penalized M-estimators applied to robust high-dimensional linear regression models. Traditional methods for high-dimensional statistical inference, which predominantly…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-15 Dian Zheng , Lingzhou Xue

Doubly robust estimators (DRE) are widely used in causal inference because they yield consistent estimators of average causal effect when at least one of the nuisance models, the propensity for treatment (exposure) or the outcome…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-25 Hao Wu , Lucy Shao , Toni Gui , Tsungchin Wu , Zhuochao Huang , Shengjia Tu , Xin Tu , Jinyuan Liu , Tuo Lin

This paper proposes a class of parametric multiple-index time series models that involve linear combinations of time trends, stationary variables and unit root processes as regressors. The inclusion of the three different types of time…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-11-04 Chaohua Dong , Jiti Gao , Bin Peng , Yundong Tu

We study identification and estimation of causal effects in settings with panel data. Traditionally researchers follow model-based identification strategies relying on assumptions governing the relation between the potential outcomes and…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-02-18 Dmitry Arkhangelsky , Guido W. Imbens

ML is playing an increasingly crucial role in estimating causal effects of treatments on outcomes from observational data. Many ML methods (`causal estimators') have been proposed for this task. All of these methods, as with any ML…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-06 Damian Machlanski , Spyridon Samothrakis , Paul Clarke

It is essential to capture the true probability distribution of uncertain data in the distributionally robust optimization (DRO). The uncertain data presents multimodality in numerous application scenarios, in the sense that the probability…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-03-14 Yueyao Li , Chenglong Bao , Wenxun Xing

This paper illustrates the use of selected robust estimators of covariance or correlation in the identification of anomalous laboratory results in inter-laboratory data. It is shown that robust estimators can substantially reduce the impact…

Applications · Statistics 2019-05-29 Stephen L R Ellison

Predicting the effect of interventions with many possible variations, e.g., therapeutic content that affects mental health outcomes or an earnings call transcript that drives movement in share price, is useful across several domains.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Nikita Dhawan , Arnav Paruthi , Andrew Kim , Lovedeep Gondara , Jekaterina Novikova , Chris J. Maddison

Multiple imputation has become one of the standard methods in drawing inferences in many incomplete data applications. Applications of multiple imputation in relatively more complex settings, such as high-dimensional clustered data, require…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-08 Qiushuang Li , Recai Yucel

Uncovering the heterogeneity of causal effects of policies and business decisions at various levels of granularity provides substantial value to decision makers. This paper develops estimation and inference procedures for multiple treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-09-09 Michael Lechner , Jana Mareckova

Reliable causal effect estimation from observational data requires adjustment for confounding and sufficient overlap in covariate distributions between treatment groups. However, in high-dimensional settings, lack of overlap often inflates…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-21 Linying Yang , Robin J. Evans

Generalized causal effect estimands, including the Mann-Whitney parameter and causal net benefit, provide flexible summaries of treatment effects in randomized experiments with non-Gaussian or multivariate outcomes. We develop a unified…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-27 Xinyuan Chen , Fan Li

Multidimensional item response theory (MIRT) models have generated increasing interest in the psychometrics literature. Efficient approaches for estimating MIRT models with dichotomous responses have been developed, but constructing an…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-08 Chengyu Cui , Chun Wang , Gongjun Xu

We herein propose a new robust estimation method based on random projections that is adaptive and, automatically produces a robust estimate, while enabling easy computations for high or infinite dimensional data. Under some restricted…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-29 Ricardo Fraiman , Marcela Svarc

Modern machine learning (ML) methods typically fail to adequately capture causal information. Consequently, such models do not handle data distributional shifts, are vulnerable to adversarial examples, and often learn spurious correlations.…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-01-27 Rishi Goel , Casey R. Myers , Sally Shrapnel

Under current policy decision making paradigm, we make or evaluate a policy decision by intervening different socio-economic parameters and analyzing the impact of those interventions. This process involves identifying the causal relation…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-07 Md Saiful Islam , Md Sarowar Morshed , Gary J. Young , Md. Noor-E-Alam

Propensity score methods are widely used in observational studies for evaluating marginal treatment effects. The generalized propensity score (GPS) is an extension of the propensity score framework, historically developed in the case of…

Applications · Statistics 2020-07-07 Valérie Garès , Guillaume Chauvet , David Hajage

Causal inference is a fundamental research topic for discovering the cause-effect relationships in many disciplines. However, not all algorithms are equally well-suited for a given dataset. For instance, some approaches may only be able to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-11 Zhipeng Ma , Marco Kemmerling , Daniel Buschmann , Chrismarie Enslin , Daniel Lütticke , Robert H. Schmitt