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Five-year cancer survival rates are widely reported and often interpreted to mean that early detection saves lives, that a late fatal diagnosis would have been prevented by earlier detection, and that increasing survival over time proves…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-23 Allen B. Downey

In observational studies, the observed association between an exposure and outcome of interest may be distorted by unobserved confounding. Causal sensitivity analysis can be used to assess the robustness of observed associations to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-04 Rui Hu , Ted Westling

Uncertainty quantification of prediction models through prediction sets is increasingly popular and successful, but most existing methods rely on directly observing the outcome and do not appropriately handle censored outcomes, such as…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-06 Wenwen Si , Hongxiang Qiu

In epidemiological research, modeling the cumulative effects of time-dependent exposures on survival outcomes presents a challenge due to their intricate temporal dynamics. Conventional spline-based statistical methods, though effective,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-01 Kang-Chung Yang , Shinsheng Yuan

The classical approach to analyze time-to-event data, e.g. in clinical trials, is to fit Kaplan-Meier curves yielding the treatment effect as the hazard ratio between treatment groups. Afterwards commonly a log-rank test is performed in…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-16 Kathrin Möllenhoff , Achim Tresch

Positive and negative likelihood ratios are parameters which are used to assess and compare the effectiveness of binary diagnostic tests. Both parameters only depend on the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test and are…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2024-09-02 Jose Antonio Roldan-Nofuentes , Saad Bouh Sidaty-Regad

Many studies that gather social network data use survey methods that lead to censored, missing or otherwise incomplete information. For example, the popular fixed rank nomination (FRN) scheme, often used in studies of schools and…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-12-27 Peter Hoff , Bailey Fosdick , Alex Volfovsky , Katherine Stovel

Advances in survival analysis have facilitated unprecedented flexibility in data modeling, yet there remains a lack of tools for graphically illustrating the influence of continuous covariates on predicted survival outcomes. We propose the…

Applications · Statistics 2024-01-15 Yushu Shi , Liangliang Zhang , Kim-Anh Do , Robert R. Jenq , Christine B. Peterson

We consider frequently used scoring rules for right-censored survival regression models such as time-dependent concordance, survival-CRPS, integrated Brier score and integrated binomial log-likelihood, and prove that neither of them is a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-03 David Rindt , Robert Hu , David Steinsaltz , Dino Sejdinovic

In this paper, we expand the methodology presented in Mertens et. al (2020, Biometrical Journal) to the study of life-time (survival) outcome which is subject to censoring and when imputation is used to account for missing values. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-06 Bart J. A. Mertens

Surveys are commonly used to facilitate research in epidemiology, health, and the social and behavioral sciences. Often, these surveys are not simple random samples, and respondents are given weights reflecting their probability of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-20 Adway S. Wadekar , Jerome P. Reiter

This paper is devoted to robust estimation based on dual divergences estimators for parametric models in the framework of right censored data. We give limit laws of the proposed estimators and examine their asymptotic properties through a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-06-15 Mohamed Cherfi

The Brier score is a widely used metric evaluating overall performance of probabilistic predictions for binary outcomes in clinical research. However, its interpretation can be complex, as it does not align with commonly taught concepts in…

Applications · Statistics 2025-07-08 Linard Hoessly

Understanding patterns in mortality across subpopulations is essential for local health policy decision making. One of the key challenges of subnational mortality rate estimation is the presence of small populations and zero or near zero…

Applications · Statistics 2025-12-16 Ameer Dharamshi , Monica Alexander , Celeste Winant , Magali Barbieri

A very classical problem in statistics is to test the stochastic superiority of one distribution to another. However, many existing approaches are developed for independent samples and, moreover, do not take censored data into account. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-19 Dennis Dobler , Kathrin Möllenhoff

Understanding how the causal effect of a treatment evolves over time, including the potential for waning, is important for informed decisions on treatment discontinuation or repetition. For example, waning vaccine protection influences…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-25 Eni Musta , Joris Mooij

In binary classification applications, conservative decision-making that allows for abstention can be advantageous. To this end, we introduce a novel approach that determines the optimal cutoff interval for risk scores, which can be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-01 Yishu Wei , Wen-Yee Lee , George Ekow Quaye , Xiaogang Su

We report experiment results on binary categorization of (i) gray color, (ii) speech sounds, and (iii) number discrimination. Data analysis is based on constructing psychometric functions and focusing on asymptotics. We discuss the…

Medical Physics · Physics 2019-10-11 Ihor Lubashevsky , Ian Wilson , Rio Suzuki , Yuki Kato

Screening before model building is a reasonable strategy to reduce the dimension of regression problems. Sure independence screening is an efficient approach to this purpose. It applies the slope estimate of a simple linear regression as a…

Applications · Statistics 2014-01-21 Sheng-Mao Chang

We consider the problem of designing experiments for the comparison of two regression curves describing the relation between a predictor and a response in two groups, where the data between and within the group may be dependent. In order to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-01-15 Kirsten Schorning , Holger Dette