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The stochastic volatility model is a popular tool for modeling the volatility of assets. The model is a nonlinear and non-Gaussian state space model, and consequently is difficult to fit. Many approaches, both classical and Bayesian, have…

We introduce a novel Bayesian framework for estimating time-varying volatility by extending the Random Walk Stochastic Volatility (RWSV) model with Dynamic Shrinkage Processes (DSP) in log-variances. Unlike the classical Stochastic…

The Ensemble Kalman Filters (EnKF) employ a Monte-Carlo approach to represent covariance information, and are affected by sampling errors in operational settings where the number of model realizations is much smaller than the model state…

Modern approaches to perform Bayesian variable selection rely mostly on the use of shrinkage priors. That said, an ideal shrinkage prior should be adaptive to different signal levels, ensuring that small effects are ruled out, while keeping…

Stein showed that the multivariate sample mean is outperformed by "shrinking" to a constant target vector. Ledoit and Wolf extended this approach to the sample covariance matrix and proposed a multiple of the identity as shrinkage target.…

There is a wide variety of models in which the dimension of the parameter space is unknown. For example, in factor analysis the number of latent factors is typically not known and has to be inferred from the observed data. Although…

Variable selection over a potentially large set of covariates in a linear model is quite popular. In the Bayesian context, common prior choices can lead to a posterior expectation of the regression coefficients that is a sparse (or nearly…

Vector autogressions (VARs) are widely applied when it comes to modeling and forecasting macroeconomic variables. In high dimensions, however, they are prone to overfitting. Bayesian methods, more concretely shrinkage priors, have shown to…

In all areas of human knowledge, datasets are increasing in both size and complexity, creating the need for richer statistical models. This trend is also true for economic data, where high-dimensional and nonlinear/nonparametric inference…

This letter addresses the problem of estimating block sparse signal with unknown group partitions in a multiple measurement vector (MMV) setup. We propose a Bayesian framework by applying an adaptive total variation (TV) penalty on the…

Monitoring downside risk and upside risk to the key macroeconomic indicators is critical for effective policymaking aimed at maintaining economic stability. In this paper I propose a parametric framework for modelling and forecasting…

Many exact Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms have been developed for posterior inference in Bayesian nonparametric models which involve infinite-dimensional priors. However, these methods are not generic and special methodology must be…

Motivated by reduction of computational complexity, this work develops sign-error adaptive filtering algorithms for estimating time-varying system parameters. Different from the previous work on sign-error algorithms, the parameters are…

Bayesian disease mapping, yet if undeniably useful to describe variation in risk over time and space, comes with the hurdle of prior elicitation on hard-to-interpret random effect precision parameters. We introduce a reparametrized version…

We introduce a class of randomly time-changed fast mean-reverting stochastic volatility models and, using spectral theory and singular perturbation techniques, we derive an approximation for the prices of European options in this setting.…

This paper presents a methodology to introduce time-dependent parameters for a wide family of models preserving their analytic tractability. This family includes hybrid models with stochastic volatility, stochastic interest-rates, jumps and…

We revisit a model for time-varying linear regression that assumes the unknown parameters evolve according to a linear dynamical system. Counterintuitively, we show that when the underlying dynamics are stable the parameters of this model…

This paper introduces a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with stochastic volatility-in-mean and time-varying skewness. Unlike previous approaches, the proposed model allows both volatility and skewness to directly affect macroeconomic…

Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods are used to carry out inference in non-linear and non-Gaussian state space models, where the posterior density of the states is approximated using particles. Current approaches usually perform…

We develop a variational Bayes approach for dynamic variable selection in high-dimensional regression models with time-varying parameters and predictors that exhibit a predefined group structure. Through comprehensive simulation studies, we…