Related papers: Bayesian fractional posteriors
We consider the asymptotic behavior of posterior distributions if the model is misspecified. Given a prior distribution and a random sample from a distribution $P_0$, which may not be in the support of the prior, we show that the posterior…
We present a continuation method that entails generating a sequence of transition probability density functions from the prior to the posterior in the context of Bayesian inference for parameter estimation problems. The characterization of…
Optimization is widely used in statistics, and often efficiently delivers point estimates on useful spaces involving structural constraints or combinatorial structure. To quantify uncertainty, Gibbs posterior exponentiates the negative loss…
We study spike-and-slab priors for generalized linear models with possible grouped sparsity. The main result is an oracle Bernstein--von Mises theorem for the fractional posterior under supportwise likelihood assumptions. The proof develops…
Bayesian methods are actively used for parameter identification and uncertainty quantification when solving nonlinear inverse problems with random noise. However, there are only few theoretical results justifying the Bayesian approach.…
In this work, we investigate the estimation of a parameter $f$ in PDEs using Bayesian procedures, and focus on posterior distributions constructed using Gaussian process priors, and its variational approximation. We establish contraction…
Reduced rank regression (RRR) is a widely employed model for investigating the linear association between multiple response variables and a set of predictors. While RRR has been extensively explored in various works, the focus has…
We present a survey of some of our recent results on Bayesian nonparametric inference for a multitude of stochastic processes. The common feature is that the prior distribution in the cases considered is on suitable sets of piecewise…
Piecewise constant priors are routinely used in the Bayesian Cox proportional hazards model for survival analysis. Despite its popularity, large sample properties of this Bayesian method are not yet well understood. This work provides a…
Under model misspecification, it is known that Bayesian posteriors often do not properly quantify uncertainty about true or pseudo-true parameters. Even more fundamentally, misspecification leads to a lack of reproducibility in the sense…
We consider a Bayesian nonparametric approach to a family of linear inverse problems in a separable Hilbert space setting with Gaussian noise. We assume Gaussian priors, which are conjugate to the model, and present a method of identifying…
We derive rates of contraction of posterior distributions on nonparametric or semiparametric models based on Gaussian processes. The rate of contraction is shown to depend on the position of the true parameter relative to the reproducing…
We provide a general solution to a fundamental open problem in Bayesian inference, namely poor uncertainty quantification, from a frequency standpoint, of Bayesian methods in misspecified models. While existing solutions are based on…
Constraints are a natural choice for prior information in Bayesian inference. In various applications, the parameters of interest lie on the boundary of the constraint set. In this paper, we use a method that implicitly defines a…
We study posterior contraction behaviors for parameters of interest in the context of Bayesian mixture modeling, where the number of mixing components is unknown while the model itself may or may not be correctly specified. Two…
The prior distribution on parameters of a sampling distribution is the usual starting point for Bayesian uncertainty quantification. In this paper, we present a different perspective which focuses on missing observations as the source of…
A spectral approach to Bayesian inference is presented. It pursues the emulation of the posterior probability density. The starting point is a series expansion of the likelihood function in terms of orthogonal polynomials. From this…
We study a nonparametric Bayesian approach to linear inverse problems under discrete observations. We use the discrete Fourier transform to convert our model into a truncated Gaussian sequence model, that is closely related to the classical…
The elicitation of power priors, based on the availability of historical data, is realized by raising the likelihood function of the historical data to a fractional power {\delta}, which quantifies the degree of discounting of the…
Using observation data to estimate unknown parameters in computational models is broadly important. This task is often challenging because solutions are non-unique due to the complexity of the model and limited observation data. However,…