Related papers: Towards High-Efficiency Cascading Outage Simulatio…
We use machine learning tools to model the line interaction of failure cascading in power grid networks. We first collect data sets of simulated trajectories of possible consecutive line failure following an initial random failure and…
We propose a phase model to study cascade failure in power grids composed of generators and loads. If the power demand is below a critical value, the model system of power grids maintains the standard frequency by feedback control. On the…
Power system resilience is vital to modern society, as outages caused by extreme weather can severely disrupt communities. Existing statistical and simulation-based methods for resilience quantification are either retrospective or rely on…
Online decision support for effective mitigation actions against propagating cascading outages in a power grid still poses a big challenge to grid operators. This paper proposes an online mitigation strategy against cascading outages using…
In studies on complex network systems using graph theory, eigen-analysis is typically performed on an undirected graph model of the network. However, when analyzing cascading failures in a power system, the interactions among failures…
In today's global economy, supply chain (SC) entities have become increasingly interconnected with demand and supply relationships due to the need for strategic outsourcing. Such interdependence among firms not only increases efficiency but…
As one important means of ensuring secure operation in a power system, the contingency selection and ranking methods need to be more rapid and accurate. A novel method-based least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) algorithm…
Transmission line outage rates are fundamental to power system reliability analysis. Line outages are infrequent, occurring only about once a year, so outage data are limited. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model that leverages line…
Ensuring reliable operation of large power systems subjected to multiple outages is a challenging task because of the combinatorial nature of the problem. Traditional approaches for security assessment are often limited by their scope…
Energy systems resilience is becoming increasingly important as the frequency of major grid outages increases. In this work, we present a methodology to optimize a behind-the-meter distributed energy resource system to sustain a site's…
Importance Sampling (IS) is a widely used variance reduction technique for enhancing the efficiency of Monte Carlo methods, particularly in rare-event simulation and related applications. Despite its effectiveness, the performance of IS is…
Electricity systems are experiencing increased effects of randomness and variability due to emerging stochastic assets. The increased effects introduce new uncertainties into power systems that can impact system operability and reliability.…
This paper proposes niching importance sampling, a framework that combines concepts from reliability analysis, e.g. Markov chains, importance sampling, and relative cross entropy minimisation, with niching techniques from evolutionary…
Cascading failures represent a fundamental threat to the integrity of complex systems, often precipitating a comprehensive collapse across diverse infrastructures and financial networks. This research articulates a robust and pragmatic…
Simulated annealing - moving from a tractable distribution to a distribution of interest via a sequence of intermediate distributions - has traditionally been used as an inexact method of handling isolated modes in Markov chain samplers.…
Optimal sensor scheduling with applications to networked estimation and control systems is considered. We model sensor measurement and transmission instances using jumps between states of a continuous-time Markov chain. We introduce a cost…
From biotechnology to cyber-risks, most extreme technological risks cannot be reliably estimated from historical statistics. Therefore, engineers resort to predictive methods, such as fault/event trees in the framework of probabilistic…
In this paper, the multi-type branching process is applied to describe the statistics and interdependencies of line outages, the load shed, and isolated buses. The offspring mean matrix of the multi-type branching process is estimated by…
In network systems, a local perturbation can amplify as it propagates, potentially leading to a large-scale cascading failure. Here we derive a continuous model to advance our understanding of cascading failures in power-grid networks. The…
Cascading failures are one of the main reasons for blackouts in electric power transmission grids. The economic cost of such failures is in the order of tens of billion dollars annually. The loading level of power system is a key aspect to…