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We explore uncertainty quantification in large language models (LLMs), with the goal to identify when uncertainty in responses given a query is large. We simultaneously consider both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, where the former…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-18 Yasin Abbasi Yadkori , Ilja Kuzborskij , András György , Csaba Szepesvári

This paper presents the latest improvements introduced in Version 4 of the UQpy, Uncertainty Quantification with Python, library. In the latest version, the code was restructured to conform with the latest Python coding conventions,…

When performing Monte-Carlo simulations, distributions are sometimes determined only for sub-intervals of the desired total range. In such cases, a frequent problem is to connect, or glue, individual distributions to obtain the final…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-07-19 Peter Werner

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an important component of molecular property prediction, particularly for drug discovery applications where model predictions direct experimental design and where unanticipated imprecision wastes valuable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-21 Lior Hirschfeld , Kyle Swanson , Kevin Yang , Regina Barzilay , Connor W. Coley

The proliferation of Deep Neural Networks has resulted in machine learning systems becoming increasingly more present in various real-world applications. Consequently, there is a growing demand for highly reliable models in many domains,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Pedro Conde , Rui L. Lopes , Cristiano Premebida

We present a computational framework for analyzing and quantifying system flexibility. Our framework incorporates new features that include: general uncertainty characterizations that are constructed using composition of sets, procedures…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-06-25 Joshua L. Pulsipher , Daniel Rios , Victor M. Zavala

PowerSimulations.jl is a Julia-based BSD-licensed power system operations simulation tool developed as a flexible and open source software for quasi-static power systems simulations including Production Cost Models. PowerSimulations.jl…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-04-05 Jose Daniel Lara , Clayton Barrows , Daniel Thom , Sourabh Dalvi , Duncan S. Callaway , Dheepak Krishnamurthy

The treatment of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty by recent methods often requires an high computational effort. In this abstract, we propose a numerical sampling method allowing to lighten the computational burden of treating the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2007-12-14 Eric Chojnacki , Jean Baccou , Sébastien Destercke

In this technical report we study the problem of propagation of uncertainty (in terms of variances of given uni-variate normal random variables) through typical building blocks of a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). These include layers…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-12 Christos Tzelepis , Ioannis Patras

We present a correlated \textit{and} gate which may be used to propagate uncertainty and dependence through Boolean functions, since any Boolean function may be expressed as a combination of \textit{and} and \textit{not} operations. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-07-22 Enrique Miralles-Dolz , Ander Gray , Edoardo Patelli , Scott Ferson

We apply a probabilistic approach to study the computational complexity of analog computers which solve linear programming problems. We analyze numerically various ensembles of linear programming problems and obtain, for each of these…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-11-11 Yaniv Avizrats , Joshua Feinberg , Shmuel Fishman

Large-language models (LLMs) and chatbot agents are known to provide wrong outputs at times, and it was recently found that this can never be fully prevented. Hence, uncertainty quantification plays a crucial role, aiming to quantify the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Michael Kirchhof , Gjergji Kasneci , Enkelejda Kasneci

Despite the widespread adoption of large language models (LLMs) for recommendation, we demonstrate that LLMs often exhibit uncertainty in their recommendations. To ensure the trustworthy use of LLMs in generating recommendations, we…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-02-13 Wonbin Kweon , Sanghwan Jang , SeongKu Kang , Hwanjo Yu

Despite demonstrating impressive capabilities, Large Language Models (LLMs) still often struggle to accurately express the factual knowledge they possess, especially in cases where the LLMs' knowledge boundaries are ambiguous. To improve…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-26 Boyang Xue , Fei Mi , Qi Zhu , Hongru Wang , Rui Wang , Sheng Wang , Erxin Yu , Xuming Hu , Kam-Fai Wong

The modeling and uncertainty quantification of closed curves is an important problem in the field of shape analysis, and can have significant ramifications for subsequent statistical tasks. Many of these tasks involve collections of closed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-15 Hengrui Luo , Justin D. Strait

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly assisting users in the real world, yet their reliability remains a concern. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) has been heralded as a tool to enhance human-LLM collaboration by enabling users to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Siddartha Devic , Tejas Srinivasan , Jesse Thomason , Willie Neiswanger , Vatsal Sharan

We introduce a software package, Pigeons.jl, that provides a way to leverage distributed computation to obtain samples from complicated probability distributions, such as multimodal posteriors arising in Bayesian inference and…

The idea of using unfolding as a way of computing a program semantics has been applied successfully to logic programs and has shown itself a powerful tool that provides concrete, implementable results, as its outcome is actually source…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2017-08-29 José María Rey-Poza , Julio Mariño-Carballo

Molecular dynamics simulation is now a widespread approach for understanding complex systems on the atomistic scale. It finds applications from physics and chemistry to engineering, life and medical science. In the last decade, the approach…

Computational Physics · Physics 2021-04-28 Shunzhou Wan , Robert C. Sinclair , Peter V. Coveney

Evaluation of relativistic molecular integrals over exponential-type spinor orbitals require using the relativistic auxiliary functions in prolate spheroidal coordinates. They have derived recently by the author [Physical Review E 91,…

Computational Physics · Physics 2022-01-26 Ali Bagci
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