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Statistical extreme value theory is concerned with the use of asymptotically motivated models to describe the extreme values of a process. A number of commonly used models are valid for observed data that exceed some high threshold.…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-10 J. Lee , Y. Fan , S. A. Sisson

The goal of this paper is to develop distributionally robust optimization (DRO) estimators, specifically for multidimensional Extreme Value Theory (EVT) statistics. EVT supports using semi-parametric models called max-stable distributions…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-02 Patrick Kuiper , Ali Hasan , Wenhao Yang , Yuting Ng , Hoda Bidkhori , Jose Blanchet , Vahid Tarokh

The study of multivariate extremes is dominated by multivariate regular variation, although it is well known that this approach does not provide adequate distinction between random vectors whose components are not always simultaneously…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-08-17 Natalia Nolde , Jennifer L. Wadsworth

Extreme value statistics provides accurate estimates for the small occurrence probabilities of rare events. While theory and statistical tools for univariate extremes are well-developed, methods for high-dimensional and complex data sets…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-06 Sebastian Engelke , Jevgenijs Ivanovs

In the multivariate setting, estimates of extremal risk measures are important in many contexts, such as environmental planning and structural engineering. In this paper, we propose new estimation methods for extremal bivariate return…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-11 C. J. R. Murphy-Barltrop , J. L. Wadsworth , E. F. Eastoe

The extreme value index is a fundamental parameter in univariate Extreme Value Theory (EVT). It captures the tail behavior of a distribution and is central in the extrapolation beyond observed data. Among other semi-parametric methods (such…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-05-02 Clément Dombry , Ana Ferreira

This paper develops new extremal principles of variational analysis that are motivated by applications to constrained problems of stochastic programming and semi-infinite programming without smoothness and/or convexity assumptions. These…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-07-23 Boris S. Mordukhovich , Pedro Pérez-Aros

Extreme events such as natural and economic disasters leave lasting impacts on society and motivate the analysis of extremes from data. While classical statistical tools based on Gaussian distributions focus on average behaviour and can…

Applications · Statistics 2023-11-01 Michele Nguyen , Almut E. D. Veraart , Benoit Taisne , Tan Chiou Ting , David Lallemant

We introduce and study Multi-Quantile estimators for the parameters $( \xi, \sigma, \mu)$ of Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions to provide a robust approach to extreme value modeling. Unlike classical estimators, such as the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-03 Sen Lin , Ao Kong , Robert Azencott

Impact assessment of natural hazards requires the consideration of both extreme and non-extreme events. Extensive research has been conducted on the joint modeling of bulk and tail in univariate settings; however, the corresponding body of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Chenglei Hu , Ben Swallow , Daniela Castro-Camilo

Several environmental phenomena can be described by different correlated variables that must be considered jointly in order to be more representative of the nature of these phenomena. For such events, identification of extremes is…

Applications · Statistics 2018-03-15 Raúl Torres , Carlo De Michele , Henry Laniado , Rosa E. Lillo

Estimation of extreme quantile regions, spaces in which future extreme events can occur with a given low probability, even beyond the range of the observed data, is an important task in the analysis of extremes. Existing methods to estimate…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-28 Boris Beranger , Simone A. Padoan , Scott A. Sisson

Extreme value theory provides an asymptotically justified framework for estimation of exceedance probabilities in regions where few or no observations are available. For multivariate tail estimation, the strength of extremal dependence is…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-02-06 Sebastian Engelke , Jevgenijs Ivanovs

Estimating the parameters of max-stable parametric models poses significant challenges, particularly when some parameters lie on the boundary of the parameter space. This situation arises when a subset of variables exhibits extreme values…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-08 Anas Mourahib , Anna Kiriliouk , Johan Segers

Multivariate extreme-value analysis is concerned with the extremes in a multivariate random sample, that is, points of which at least some components have exceptionally large values. Mathematical theory suggests the use of max-stable models…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-04-03 Johan Segers

When modeling a vector of risk variables, extreme scenarios are often of special interest. The peaks-over-thresholds method hinges on the notion that, asymptotically, the excesses over a vector of high thresholds follow a multivariate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-23 Anas Mourahib , Anna Kiriliouk , Johan Segers

We consider stationary stochastic processes arising from dynamical systems by evaluating a given observable along the orbits of the system. We focus on the extremal behaviour of the process, which is related to the entrance in certain…

We use extreme value theory to estimate the probability of successive exceedances of a threshold value of a time-series of an observable on several classes of chaotic dynamical systems. The observables have either a Fr\'echet (fat-tailed)…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-11-07 Meagan Carney , Mark Holland , Matthew Nicol , Phuong Tran

Accurate prediction of traffic crash risks for individual vehicles is essential for enhancing vehicle safety. While significant attention has been given to traffic crash risk prediction, existing studies face two main challenges: First, due…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-03-07 Kequan Chen , Pan Liu , Yuxuan Wang , David Z. W. Wang , Yifan Dai , Zhibin Li

In risk management, often the probability must be estimated that a random vector falls into an extreme failure set. In the framework of bivariate extreme value theory, we construct an estimator for such failure probabilities and analyze its…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-04 Holger Drees , Laurens de Haan