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Under the Neyman causal model, it is well-known that OLS with treatment-by-covariate interactions cannot harm asymptotic precision of estimated treatment effects in completely randomized experiments. But do such guarantees extend to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-03-19 Joel A. Middleton

Distribution-free uncertainty estimation for ensemble methods is increasingly desirable due to the widening deployment of multi-modal black-box predictive models. Conformal prediction is one approach that avoids such distributional…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-26 Eduardo Ochoa Rivera , Yash Patel , Ambuj Tewari

The increased availability of massive data sets provides a unique opportunity to discover subtle patterns in their distributions, but also imposes overwhelming computational challenges. To fully utilize the information contained in big…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-04-12 Stanislav Volgushev , Shih-Kang Chao , Guang Cheng

This article is concerned with the fitting of multinomial regression models using the so-called "Poisson Trick". The work is motivated by Chen & Kuo (2001) and Malchow-M{\o}ller & Svarer (2003) which have been criticized for being…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-27 Jarod Y. L. Lee , Peter J. Green , Louise M. Ryan

This paper introduces a new fixed effects estimator for linear panel data models with clustered time patterns of unobserved heterogeneity. The method avoids non-convex and combinatorial optimization by combining a preliminary consistent…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-04-21 Martin Mugnier

Distribution regression seeks to estimate the conditional distribution of a multivariate response given a continuous covariate. This approach offers a more complete characterization of dependence than traditional regression methods.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-10 Rong Tang , Yun Yang

We generalize the derivation of model predictive path integral control (MPPI) to allow for a single joint distribution across controls in the control sequence. This reformation allows for the implementation of adaptive importance sampling…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-03-02 Dylan M. Asmar , Ransalu Senanayake , Shawn Manuel , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

We develop adaptive estimation and inference methods for high-dimensional Gaussian copula regression that achieve the same performance without the knowledge of the marginal transformations as that for high-dimensional linear regression.…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-12-09 T. Tony Cai , Linjun Zhang

Additive regression models with interactions are widely studied in the literature, using methods such as splines or Gaussian process regression. However, these methods can pose challenges for estimation and model selection, due to the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-06-14 Wicher Bergsma , Haziq Jamil

Additive models enjoy the flexibility of nonlinear models while still being readily understandable to humans. By contrast, other nonlinear models, which involve interactions between features, are not only harder to fit but also…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-03 Yiling Huang , Snigdha Panigrahi , Guo Yu , Jacob Bien

Regression method has been widely used to explore relationship between dependent and independent variables. In practice, data issues such as censoring and missing data often exist. When the response variable is (fixed) censored, Tobit…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-06 Hailin Huang

The generalized partially linear additive model (GPLAM) is a flexible and interpretable approach to building predictive models. It combines features in an additive manner, allowing each to have either a linear or nonlinear effect on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-29 Yin Lou , Jacob Bien , Rich Caruana , Johannes Gehrke

Fully nonparametric methods for regression from functional data have poor accuracy from a statistical viewpoint, reflecting the fact that their convergence rates are slower than nonparametric rates for the estimation of high-dimensional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-11-22 Dong Chen , Peter Hall , Hans-Georg Müller

We present a joint copula-based model for insurance claims and sizes. It uses bivariate copulae to accommodate for the dependence between these quantities. We derive the general distribution of the policy loss without the restrictive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-09-25 Nicole Kraemer , Eike C. Brechmann , Daniel Silvestrini , Claudia Czado

Within Bayesian nonparametrics, dependent Dirichlet process mixture models provide a highly flexible approach for conducting inference about the conditional density function. However, several formulations of this class make either rather…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-14 María Xosé Rodríguez-Álvarez , Vanda Inácio , Nadja Klein

The $p$-tensor Ising model is a one-parameter discrete exponential family for modeling dependent binary data, where the sufficient statistic is a multi-linear form of degree $p \geq 2$. This is a natural generalization of the matrix Ising…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-01 Somabha Mukherjee , Jaesung Son , Bhaswar B. Bhattacharya

We consider a flexible semiparametric quantile regression model for analyzing high dimensional heterogeneous data. This model has several appealing features: (1) By considering different conditional quantiles, we may obtain a more complete…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-25 Ben Sherwood , Lan Wang

Count data are common in medical research. When these data have more zeros than expected by the most used count distributions, it is common to employ a zero-inflated regression model. However, the interpretability of these models is much…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-30 Gustavo H. A. Pereira , Jeremias Leão , Manoel Santos-Neto , Jianwen Cai

When training predictive models on data with missing entries, the most widely used and versatile approach is a pipeline technique where we first impute missing entries and then compute predictions. In this paper, we view prediction with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Dimitris Bertsimas , Arthur Delarue , Jean Pauphilet

Probabilistic modeling is cyclical: we specify a model, infer its posterior, and evaluate its performance. Evaluation drives the cycle, as we revise our model based on how it performs. This requires a metric. Traditionally, predictive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-05-25 Alp Kucukelbir , David M. Blei