Related papers: Location Aggregation of Spatial Population CTMC Mo…
This work develops a block aggregation approach to spatial estimation and prediction when the response is observed at a coarse spatial scale, for example as counts of events in administrative areas, or blocks, while covariates are available…
Agent based models (ABMs) are a useful tool for modeling spatio-temporal population dynamics, where many details can be included in the model description. Their computational cost though is very high and for stochastic ABMs a lot of…
We present a stochastic model of population dynamics exploiting cross-sectional data in trend analysis and forecasts for groups and cohorts of a population. While sharing the convenient features of classic Markov models, it alleviates the…
Markov Population Models are a widespread formalism used to model the dynamics of complex systems, with applications in Systems Biology and many other fields. The associated Markov stochastic process in continuous time is often analyzed by…
To understand the long-run behavior of Markov population models, the computation of the stationary distribution is often a crucial part. We propose a truncation-based approximation that employs a state-space lumping scheme, aggregating…
Spatial aggregation with respect to a population distribution involves estimating aggregate quantities for a population based on an observation of individuals in a subpopulation. In this context, a geostatistical workflow must account for…
We investigate the behaviour of population models written in Stochastic Concurrent Constraint Programming (sCCP), a stochastic extension of Concurrent Constraint Programming. In particular, we focus on models from which we can define a…
Many complex systems can be described by population models, in which a pool of agents interacts and produces complex collective behaviours. We consider the problem of verifying formal properties of the underlying mathematical representation…
Many analyses of resource-allocation problems employ simplistic models of the population. Using the example of a resource-allocation problem of Marecek et al. [arXiv:1406.7639], we introduce rather a general behavioural model, where the…
The proliferation of advanced mobile terminals opened up a new crowdsourcing avenue, spatial crowdsourcing, to utilize the crowd potential to perform real-world tasks. In this work, we study a new type of spatial crowdsourcing, called…
Nonlinear dynamical stochastic models are ubiquitous in different areas. Excitable media models are typical examples with large state dimensions. Their statistical properties are often of great interest but are also very challenging to…
The paper reviews the results obtained for spatial population models and the evolution of the genealogies of these populations during the last decade by the author and his coworkers. The focus is on their large scale behaviour and on the…
Investigating relationships between response variables and covariates in areas such as environmental science, geoscience, and public health is an important endeavor. Based on a Bayesian mixture of finite mixtures model, we present a novel…
Stochastic processes on complex networks, where each node is in one of several compartments, and neighboring nodes interact with each other, can be used to describe a variety of real-world spreading phenomena. However, computational…
We survey results on the description of stochastically evolving genealogies of populations and marked genealogies of multitype populations or spatial populations via tree-valued Markov processes on (marked) ultrametric measure spaces. In…
Stochastic epidemic models which incorporate interactions between space and human mobility are a key tool to inform prioritisation of outbreak control to appropriate locations. However, methods for fitting such models to national-level…
We describe an approach for identifying groups of dynamically similar locations in spatial time-series data based on a simple Markov transition model. We give maximum-likelihood, empirical Bayes, and fully Bayesian formulations of the…
I present an approach for modeling areal spatial covariance by considering the stationary distribution of a spatio-temporal Markov random walk. In the areal data case, this stationary distribution corresponds to an intrinsic simultaneous…
We consider a class of continuous-time stochastic growth models on $d$-dimensional lattice with non-negative real numbers as possible values per site. The class contains examples such as binary contact path process and potlatch process. We…
Conditional sampling distributions (CSDs), sometimes referred to as copying models, underlie numerous practical tools in population genomic analyses. Though an important application that has received much attention is the inference of…