Related papers: Population growth, interest rate, and housing tax …
The latest global financial tsunami and its follow-up global economic recession has uncovered the crucial impact of housing markets on financial and economic systems. The Chinese stock market experienced a markedly fall during the global…
Push-pull theory, one of the most important macro theories in demography, argues that population migration is driven by a combination of push (repulsive) forces at the place of emigration and pull (attractive) forces at the place of…
The deep financial turmoil in China caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated fiscal shocks and soaring public debt levels, which raises concerns about the stability and sustainability of China's public debt growth in the future. This…
The existing theorization of development economics and transition economics is probably inadequate and perhaps even flawed to accurately explain and analyze a dual economic system such as that in China. China is a country in the transition…
In this article, we develop a model for the evolution of real estate prices. A wide range of inputs, including stochastic interest rates and changing demands for the asset, are considered. Maximizing their expected utility, home owners make…
House price increases have been steady over much of the last 40 years, but there have been occasional declines, most notably in the recent housing bust that started around 2007, on the heels of the preceding housing bubble. We introduce a…
Regulation is a major driver of housing supply, yet often difficult to observe directly. This paper estimates frontier cost, the non-land cost of producing housing absent regulation, and regulatory tax, which quantifies regulation in money…
This article identifies the factors that drove house prices in 13 advanced countries over the past 35 years. It does so based on Breiman s (2001) random forest model. Shapley values indicate that annual house price growth across countries…
We analyze how equilibrium housing prices are determined in the process of economic development within an overlapping generations model with perfect housing and rental markets. We characterize the rent growth rate in all equilibria. The…
While the size of China's mobile population continues to expand, the fertility rate is significantly lower than the stable generation replacement level of the population, and the structural imbalance of human resource supply has attracted…
We develop a framework to holistically test for and monitor the impact of different types of events affecting a country's housing market, yet originating from housing-external sources. We classify events along three dimensions leading to…
This paper employs the survey data of CHFS (2013) to investigate the impact of housing investment on household stock market participation and portfolio choice. The results show that larger housing investment encourages the household…
We study the effect of localized housing price hikes on renters' mobility, consumption, and credit outcomes. Consistent with a spatial equilibrium model, we find that the consumption responses vary greatly for movers and stayers. While…
I show that house prices can be modeled using machine learning (kNN and tree-bagging) and a small dataset composed of macro-economic factors (MEF), including an inflation metric (CPI), US treasury rates (10-yr), Gross Domestic Product…
In recent years Australia has observed a growing, unexplained resilience of increasing house price trends. Here, we seek to understand what is driving Australia's indestructible asset using insights from market experts. We construct a…
In this paper, we investigate the impact of mortgage rates on home prices, and how the impact may be used to help property purchase discussions at individual buyer level and to adjust home price indices across time. A mortgage-rate-adjusted…
In this study interest centers on regional differences in the response of housing prices to monetary policy shocks in the US. We address this issue by analyzing monthly home price data for metropolitan regions using a factor-augmented…
Excessive house price growth was at the heart of the financial crisis in 2007/08. Since then, many countries have added cooling measures to their regulatory frameworks. It has been found that these measures can indeed control price growth,…
In recent years, real estate industry has captured government and public attention around the world. The factors influencing the prices of real estate are diversified and complex. However, due to the limitations and one-sidedness of their…
This paper develops a House Price-at-Risk framework to examine how housing subsidies, credit conditions, and supply factors influence the distribution of house price growth in Hungary. Using quantile regression with adaptive LASSO variable…