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Contribution to the discussion of the paper "Causal inference using invariant prediction: identification and confidence intervals" by Peters, B\"uhlmann and Meinshausen, to appear in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B.

Methodology · Statistics 2016-05-27 Chris J. Oates , Jessica Kasza , Sach Mukherjee

This book chapter introduces the principles and practical applications of uncertainty quantification in machine learning. It explains how to identify and distinguish between different types of uncertainty and presents methods for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-08 Hans Weytjens , Wouter Verbeke

Mechanistic knowledge about the physical world is virtually always expressed via partial differential equations (PDEs). Recently, there has been a surge of interest in probabilistic PDE solvers -- Bayesian statistical models mostly based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Tim Weiland , Marvin Pförtner , Philipp Hennig

Exponential random graph models (ERGMs) are a widely used framework for network data, enabling hypothesis testing on the structural mechanisms underlying observed networks. Bayesian ERGMs provide principled uncertainty quantification and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-26 Alberto Caimo , Isabella Gollini

This survey covers state-of-the-art Bayesian techniques for the estimation of mixtures. It complements the earlier Marin, Mengersen and Robert (2005) by studying new types of distributions, the multinomial, latent class and t distributions.…

Computation · Statistics 2008-04-16 Kate Lee , Jean-Michel Marin , Kerrie Mengersen , Christian P. Robert

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) plays a pivotal role in reduction of uncertainties during both optimization and decision making processes. It can be applied to solve a variety of real-world applications in science and engineering. Bayesian…

Reduced-rank regression recognises the possibility of a rank-deficient matrix of coefficients. We propose a novel Bayesian model for estimating the rank of the coefficient matrix, which obviates the need for post-processing steps and allows…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-14 Maria F. Pintado , Matteo Iacopini , Luca Rossini , Alexander Y. Shestopaloff

We present a survey of some of our recent results on Bayesian nonparametric inference for a multitude of stochastic processes. The common feature is that the prior distribution in the cases considered is on suitable sets of piecewise…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-04 Denis Belomestny , Frank van der Meulen , Peter Spreij

The problem of joint estimation of multiple graphical models from high dimensional data has been studied in the statistics and machine learning literature, due to its importance in diverse fields including molecular biology, neuroscience…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-04 Peyman Jalali , Kshitij Khare , George Michailidis

Probabilistic convolutional neural networks, which predict distributions of predictions instead of point estimates, led to recent advances in many areas of computer vision, from image reconstruction to semantic segmentation. Besides state…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-01-19 Josef Lorenz Rumberger , Lisa Mais , Dagmar Kainmueller

We discuss the relation between entropic uncertainty relations by Buscemi et al. and by Barchielli et al.

Quantum Physics · Physics 2017-09-13 Daigo Watanabe , Osamu Narikiyo

This paper reviews the basic ideas behind a Bayesian unfolding published some years ago and improves their implementation. In particular, uncertainties are now treated at all levels by probability density functions and their propagation is…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2010-10-05 G. D'Agostini

Bayesian quadrature (BQ) is a model-based numerical integration method that is able to increase sample efficiency by encoding and leveraging known structure of the integration task at hand. In this paper, we explore priors that encode…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-06 Masha Naslidnyk , Javier Gonzalez , Maren Mahsereci

Precise probabilistic forecasts are fundamental for energy risk management, and there is a wide range of both statistical and machine learning models for this purpose. Inherent to these probabilistic models is some form of uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-10 Andreas Lebedev , Abhinav Das , Sven Pappert , Stephan Schlüter

This is a complement to my previous article "Advanced Determinant Calculus" (S\'eminaire Lotharingien Combin. 42 (1999), Article B42q, 67 pp.). In the present article, I share with the reader my experience of applying the methods described…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Christian Krattenthaler

Recent advances in reconstruction methods for inverse problems leverage powerful data-driven models, e.g., deep neural networks. These techniques have demonstrated state-of-the-art performances for several imaging tasks, but they often do…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-10-20 Riccardo Barbano , Chen Zhang , Simon Arridge , Bangti Jin

Our comment on Garc\'ia-Donato et al. (2025). "Model uncertainty and missing data: An objective Bayesian perspective" explores a further extension of the proposed methodology. Specifically, we consider the sequential setting where…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-01 Sebastian Arnold , Alexander Ly

Neural operators are a type of deep architecture that learns to solve (i.e. learns the nonlinear solution operator of) partial differential equations (PDEs). The current state of the art for these models does not provide explicit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-03 Emilia Magnani , Nicholas Krämer , Runa Eschenhagen , Lorenzo Rosasco , Philipp Hennig

In this article a novel approach for training deep neural networks using Bayesian techniques is presented. The Bayesian methodology allows for an easy evaluation of model uncertainty and additionally is robust to overfitting. These are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-03 Konstantin Posch , Jürgen Pilz

Effective Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) represents a key aspect for reliable deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs) in automated decision-making and beyond. Yet, for LLM generation with multiple choice structure, the state-of-the-art…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Ramzi Dakhmouche , Adrien Letellier , Hossein Gorji