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Monte Carlo inference has asymptotic guarantees, but can be slow when using generic proposals. Handcrafted proposals that rely on user knowledge about the posterior distribution can be efficient, but are difficult to derive and implement.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-01-16 Marco F. Cusumano-Towner , Vikash K. Mansinghka

This paper presents a new static analysis for deriving upper bounds on the expected resource consumption of probabilistic programs. The analysis is fully automatic and derives symbolic bounds that are multivariate polynomials of the inputs.…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2017-11-27 Van Chan Ngo , Quentin Carbonneaux , Jan Hoffmann

Complex cyber-physical systems interact in real-time and must consider both timing and uncertainty. Developing software for such systems is expensive and difficult, especially when modeling, inference, and real-time behavior must be…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2024-07-09 Lars Hummelgren , Matthias Becker , David Broman

Probabilistic programming languages aim to describe and automate Bayesian modeling and inference. Modern languages support programmable inference, which allows users to customize inference algorithms by incorporating guide programs to…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2021-04-09 Di Wang , Jan Hoffmann , Thomas Reps

Probabilistic time series forecasting involves estimating the distribution of future based on its history, which is essential for risk management in downstream decision-making. We propose a deep state space model for probabilistic time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-02 Longyuan Li , Junchi Yan , Xiaokang Yang , Yaohui Jin

Data cleaning is naturally framed as probabilistic inference in a generative model of ground-truth data and likely errors, but the diversity of real-world error patterns and the hardness of inference make Bayesian approaches difficult to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-22 Alexander K. Lew , Monica Agrawal , David Sontag , Vikash K. Mansinghka

The generation of comprehensible explanations is an essential feature of modern artificial intelligence systems. In this work, we consider probabilistic logic programming, an extension of logic programming which can be useful to model…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-08-17 Germán Vidal

This paper presents a fast algorithm for estimating hidden states of Bayesian state space models. The algorithm is a variation of amortized simulation-based inference algorithms, where a large number of artificial datasets are generated at…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-10-14 Ramis Khabibullin , Sergei Seleznev

Safe active learning (AL) is a sequential scheme for learning unknown systems while respecting safety constraints during data acquisition. Existing methods often rely on Gaussian processes (GPs) to model the task and safety constraints,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Cen-You Li , Marc Toussaint , Barbara Rakitsch , Christoph Zimmer

Neural posterior estimation has emerged as a powerful tool for amortized inference, with growing adoption across scientific and applied domains. In many of these applications, the conditioning variable is a set of observations whose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Antoine Wehenkel , Michael Kagan , Lukas Heinrich , Chris Pollard

We consider the task of performing probabilistic inference with probabilistic logical models. Many algorithms for approximate inference with such models are based on sampling. From a logic programming perspective, sampling boils down to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-03-19 Daan Fierens

We develop operators for construction of proposals in probabilistic programs, which we refer to as inference combinators. Inference combinators define a grammar over importance samplers that compose primitive operations such as application…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-18 Sam Stites , Heiko Zimmermann , Hao Wu , Eli Sennesh , Jan-Willem van de Meent

Probabilistic Logic Programming (PLP), exemplified by Sato and Kameya's PRISM, Poole's ICL, De Raedt et al's ProbLog and Vennekens et al's LPAD, combines statistical and logical knowledge representation and inference. Inference in these…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-03-21 Muhammad Asiful Islam , C. R. Ramakrishnan , I. V. Ramakrishnan

Modern Bayesian inference involves a mixture of computational techniques for estimating, validating, and drawing conclusions from probabilistic models as part of principled workflows for data analysis. Typical problems in Bayesian workflows…

We present probabilistic neural programs, a framework for program induction that permits flexible specification of both a computational model and inference algorithm while simultaneously enabling the use of deep neural networks.…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2016-12-05 Kenton W. Murray , Jayant Krishnamurthy

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are widely used tools in statistics, machine learning, robotics, computer vision, and scientific computation. However, despite their popularity, they can be difficult to apply; all but the simplest classification or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-01-06 Ulrich Schaechtle , Ben Zinberg , Alexey Radul , Kostas Stathis , Vikash K. Mansinghka

Probabilistic programs are typically normal-looking programs describing posterior probability distributions. They intrinsically code up randomized algorithms and have long been at the heart of modern machine learning and approximate…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2023-02-14 Lutz Klinkenberg , Tobias Winkler , Mingshuai Chen , Joost-Pieter Katoen

A major trend in academia and data science is the rapid adoption of Bayesian statistics for data analysis and modeling, leading to the development of probabilistic programming languages (PPL). A PPL provides a framework that allows users to…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2021-02-15 James. W. Nightingale , Richard G. Hayes , Matthew Griffiths

Recursive calls over recursive data are useful for generating probability distributions, and probabilistic programming allows computations over these distributions to be expressed in a modular and intuitive way. Exact inference is also…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2023-03-28 David Chiang , Colin McDonald , Chung-chieh Shan

Inference algorithms in probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) can be thought of as interpreters, since an inference algorithm traverses a model given evidence to answer a query. As with interpreters, we can improve the efficiency of…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2016-04-19 Rohin Shah , Emina Torlak , Rastislav Bodik