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The effectiveness of non-parametric, kernel-based methods for function estimation comes at the price of high computational complexity, which hinders their applicability in adaptive, model-based control. Motivated by approximation techniques…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-17 Anna Scampicchio , Elena Arcari , Melanie N. Zeilinger

We study the problem of identifying change points in high-dimensional generalized linear models, and propose an approach based on sample-weighted empirical risk minimization. Our method, Weighted ERM, encodes priors on the change points via…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-14 Gabriel Arpino , Ramji Venkataramanan

We study in this paper lower bounds for the generalization error of models derived from multi-layer neural networks, in the regime where the size of the layers is commensurate with the number of samples in the training data. We show that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-08 Inbar Seroussi , Ofer Zeitouni

Multiple generalized additive models (GAMs) are a type of distributional regression wherein parameters of probability distributions depend on predictors through smooth functions, with selection of the degree of smoothness via $L_2$…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-09-26 Yousra El-Bachir , Anthony C. Davison

Confidence measures for the generalization error are crucial when small training samples are used to construct classifiers. A common approach is to estimate the generalization error by resampling and then assume the resampled estimator…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-06-18 Eric B. Laber , Susan A. Murphy

In model development, model calibration and validation play complementary roles toward learning reliable models. In this article, we expand the Bayesian Validation Metric framework to a general calibration and validation framework by…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-04 Tony Tohme , Kevin Vanslette , Kamal Youcef-Toumi

Trained AI systems and expert decision makers can make errors that are often difficult to identify and understand. Determining the root cause for these errors can improve future decisions. This work presents Generative Error Model (GEM), a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-03-30 Ramya Ramakrishnan , Vaibhav Unhelkar , Ece Kamar , Julie Shah

Models for learning probability distributions such as generative models and density estimators behave quite differently from models for learning functions. One example is found in the memorization phenomenon, namely the ultimate convergence…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-03 Hongkang Yang , Weinan E

Optimization and generalization are two essential aspects of statistical machine learning. In this paper, we propose a framework to connect optimization with generalization by analyzing the generalization error based on the optimization…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-13 Fusheng Liu , Haizhao Yang , Soufiane Hayou , Qianxiao Li

We establish empirical risk minimization principles for active learning by deriving a family of upper bounds on the generalization error. Aligning with empirical observations, the bounds suggest that superior query algorithms can be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-17 Vincent Menden , Yahya Saleh , Armin Iske

We derive generalization error bounds for stationary univariate autoregressive (AR) models. We show that imposing stationarity is enough to control the Gaussian complexity without further regularization. This lets us use structural risk…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-06-06 Daniel J. McDonald , Cosma Rohilla Shalizi , Mark Schervish

Generalization error predictors (GEPs) aim to predict model performance on unseen distributions by deriving dataset-level error estimates from sample-level scores. However, GEPs often utilize disparate mechanisms (e.g., regressors,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-30 Puja Trivedi , Danai Koutra , Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan

In this paper, the method of gaps, a technique for deriving closed-form expressions in terms of information measures for the generalization error of supervised machine learning algorithms is introduced. The method relies on the notion of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-01 Samir M. Perlaza , Xinying Zou

In this paper, we study the generalization performance of global minima for implementing empirical risk minimization (ERM) on over-parameterized deep ReLU nets. Using a novel deepening scheme for deep ReLU nets, we rigorously prove that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-01 Shao-Bo Lin , Yao Wang , Ding-Xuan Zhou

Genetic Algorithms (GA) are a powerful tool for stochastic optimisation and non-parametric symbolic regression, already widely used in cosmology. They are capable of reconstructing analytical functions directly from data points without…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2026-02-16 Matteo Peronaci , Matteo Martinelli , Savvas Nesseris

Analyzing large datasets to select optimal features is one of the most important research areas in machine learning and data mining. This feature selection procedure involves dimensionality reduction which is crucial in enhancing the…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2024-09-24 Zhila Yaseen Taha , Abdulhady Abas Abdullah , Tarik A. Rashid

We introduce an alternative closed form lower bound on the Gaussian process ($\mathcal{GP}$) likelihood based on the R\'enyi $\alpha$-divergence. This new lower bound can be viewed as a convex combination of the Nystr\"om approximation and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-04 Xubo Yue , Raed Kontar

Model selection is difficult to analyse yet theoretically and empirically important, especially for high-dimensional data analysis. Recently the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) has been applied in the statistical and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-02 Ning Xu , Jian Hong , Timothy C. G. Fisher

The generalization error (risk) of a supervised statistical learning algorithm quantifies its prediction ability on previously unseen data. Inspired by exponential tilting, \citet{li2020tilted} proposed the {\it tilted empirical risk} (TER)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-10 Gholamali Aminian , Amir R. Asadi , Tian Li , Ahmad Beirami , Gesine Reinert , Samuel N. Cohen

Generalized linear models (GLMs) are fundamental tools for statistical modeling, with maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) serving as the classical approach for parameter inference. While MLE performs well for canonical GLMs, it can become…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-03 Linglingzhi Zhu , Jonghyeok Lee , Yao Xie