Related papers: Detection of intensity bursts using Hawkes process…
The Hawkes process is a model for counting the number of arrivals to a system which exhibits the self-exciting property - that one arrival creates a heightened chance of further arrivals in the near future. The model, and its…
We empirically investigated the relationships between the degree of efficiency and the predictability in financial time-series data. The Hurst exponent was used as the measurement of the degree of efficiency, and the hit rate calculated…
A method is presented for the identification of high-energy neutrinos from gamma ray bursts by means of a large-scale neutrino telescope. The procedure makes use of a time profile stacking technique of observed neutrino induced signals in…
We present a simple and fast method for incoherent dedispersion and fast radio burst (FRB) detection based on the Hough transform, which is widely used for feature extraction in image analysis. The Hough transform maps a point in the…
We address the reachability problem for continuous-time stochastic dynamic systems. Our objective is to present a unified framework that characterizes the reachable set of a dynamic system in the presence of both stochastic disturbances and…
Observing a load process above high thresholds, modeling it as a pulse process with random occurrence times and magnitudes, and extrapolating life-time maximum or design loads from the data is a common task in structural reliability…
The paper investigates the effect of the label green in bond markets from the lens of the trading activity. The idea is that jumps in the dynamics of returns have a specific memory nature that can be well represented through a self-exciting…
Interval-censored data solely records the aggregated counts of events during specific time intervals - such as the number of patients admitted to the hospital or the volume of vehicles passing traffic loop detectors - and not the exact…
Various classes of neurons alternate between high-frequency discharges and silent intervals. This phenomenon is called burst firing. To analyze burst activity in an insect system, grasshopper auditory receptor neurons were recorded in vivo…
Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHPs) are a class of point processes that can account for complex temporal dynamics among event sequences. In this work, we study the accuracy and computational efficiency of three classes of algorithms which,…
Based on a continuous-time stochastic volatility model with a linear drift, we develop a test for explosive behavior in financial asset prices at a low frequency when prices are sampled at a higher frequency. The test exploits the…
An extension of the Hawkes model where the productivity is variable is considered. In particular, the case is considered where each point may have its own productivity and a simple analytic formula is derived for the maximum likelihood…
This paper is devoted to problem of detecting critical events at finiacial markets using methods of multifractal analysis. Namely, the local regularity of time-series is studied. As a result, one can find out a special behavior or signal of…
We introduce an index based on information theory to quantify the stationarity of a stochastic process.The index compares on the one hand the information contained in the increment at the time scale $\tau$ of the process at time $t$ with,…
Models that contain intersample behavior are important for control design of systems with slow-rate outputs. The aim of this paper is to develop a system identification technique for fast-rate models of systems where only slow-rate output…
Predicting and perhaps mitigating against rare, extreme events in fluid flows is an important challenge. Due to the time-localised nature of these events, Fourier-based methods prove inefficient in capturing them. Instead, this paper uses…
The robust detection of statistical dependencies between the components of a complex system is a key step in gaining a network-based understanding of the system. Because of their simplicity and low computation cost, pairwise statistics are…
We develop theory leading to testing procedures for the presence of a change point in the intraday volatility pattern. The new theory is developed in the framework of Functional Data Analysis. It is based on a model akin to the stochastic…
The main technique that has been used to estimate the rate of gravitational wave (gw) bursts is to search for coincidence among times of arrival of candidate events in different detectors. Coincidences are modeled as a (possibly…
Many modern spatio-temporal data sets, in sociology, epidemiology or seismology, for example, exhibit self-exciting characteristics, triggering and clustering behaviors both at the same time, that a suitable Hawkes space-time process can…