Related papers: Bridging Asymptotic Independence and Dependence in…

The Gaussian model equips strong properties that facilitate studying and interpreting graphical models. Specifically it reduces conditional independence and the study of positive association to determining partial correlations and their…

We propose a specification test for conditional location--scale models based on extremal dependence properties of the standardized residuals. We do so comparing the left-over serial extremal dependence -- as measured by the pre-asymptotic…

The extremal behaviour of a Markov chain is typically characterized by its tail chain. For asymptotically dependent Markov chains existing formulations fail to capture the full evolution of the extreme event when the chain moves out of the…

In this paper, we study the asymptotic distribution of the maxima of suprema of dependent Gaussian processes with trend. For different scales of the time horizon we obtain different normalizing functions for the convergence of the maxima.…

The well-known M4 processes of Smith and Weissman are very flexible models for asymptotically dependent multivariate data. Extended M4 of Heffernan \emph{et al.} allows to also account for asymptotic independence. In this paper we introduce…

Let $\mathbf{X}(n) \in \mathbb{R}^d$ be a sequence of random vectors, where $n\in\mathbb{N}$ and $d = d(n)$. Under certain weakly dependence conditions, we prove that the distribution of the maximal component of $\mathbf{X}$ and the…

Inference over tails is performed by applying only the results of extreme value theory. Whilst such theory is well defined and flexible enough in the univariate case, multivariate inferential methods often require the imposition of…

Let (RU_1, R U_2) be a given bivariate scale mixture random vector, with R>0 being independent of the bivariate random vector (U_1,U_2). In this paper we derive exact asymptotic expansions of the tail probability P{RU_1> x, RU_2> ax}, a \in…

Both marginal and dependence features must be described when modelling the extremes of a stationary time series. There are standard approaches to marginal modelling, but long- and short-range dependence of extremes may both appear. In…

We propose a new class of extreme-value copulas which are extreme-value limits of conditional normal models. Conditional normal models are generalizations of conditional independence models, where the dependence among observed variables is…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are commonplace in spatial statistics. Although many non-stationary models have been developed, there is arguably a lack of flexibility compared to equipping each location with its own parameters. However, the…

Modelling the extremal dependence of bivariate variables is important in a wide variety of practical applications, including environmental planning, catastrophe modelling and hydrology. The majority of these approaches are based on the…

In situations where both extreme and non-extreme data are of interest, modelling the whole data set accurately is important. In a univariate framework, modelling the bulk and tail of a distribution has been extensively studied before.…

Stochastic volatility processes with heavy-tailed innovations are a well-known model for financial time series. In these models, the extremes of the log returns are mainly driven by the extremes of the i.i.d. innovation sequence which leads…

Over the last couple of decades, several copula based methods have been proposed in the literature to test for the independence among several random variables. But these existing tests are not invariant under monotone transformations of the…

Many processes in chemistry and physics take place on timescales that cannot be explored using standard molecular dynamics simulations. This renders the use of enhanced sampling mandatory. Here we introduce an enhanced sampling method that…

The conditional extremes framework allows for event-based stochastic modeling of dependent extremes, and has recently been extended to spatial and spatio-temporal settings. After standardizing the marginal distributions and applying an…

This paper is concerned with the asymptotic analysis of sojourn times of random fields with continuous sample paths. Under a very general framework we show that there is an interesting relationship between tail asymptotics of sojourn times…

This paper studies extremal quantiles under two-way clustered dependence. We show that the limiting distribution of unconditional intermediate-order tail quantiles is Gaussian. This result is notable because two-way clustering typically…

We propose a new multivariate dependency measure. It is obtained by considering a Gaussian kernel based distance between the copula transform of the given d-dimensional distribution and the uniform copula and then appropriately normalizing…