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The main contribution of this article is an asymptotic expression for the rate associated with moderate deviations of subgraph counts in the Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graph $G(n,m)$. Our approach is based on applying Freedman's inequalities…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2020-02-11 Christina Goldschmidt , Simon Griffiths , Alex Scott

Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs) are studied in a general framework. First, different constructions are proven to be equivalent. Second, we introduce a coupling between two PDMPs following the same differential flow which…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-08-03 Alain Durmus , Arnaud Guillin , Pierre Monmarché

The Poisson distribution of order $k$ is a special case of a compound Poisson distribution. For $k=1$ it is the standard Poisson distribution. Our main result is a proof that for sufficiently small values of the rate parameter $\lambda$,…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-10-03 S. R. Mane

We consider Markov chains which are polynomially mixing, in a weak sense expressed in terms of the space of functions on which the mixing speed is controlled. In this context, we prove polynomial large and moderate deviations inequalities.…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-07-22 J Dedecker , Sébastien Gouëzel , F Merlevède

We prove that moderate deviations for empirical measures for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chains hold under the assumption of uniform convergence of transition probability matrices for countable nonhomogeneous Markov chains in Ces\`aro…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-10-16 Mingzhou Xu , Kun Cheng

Precise asymptotics for moderate deviation probabilities are established for open convex sets in both the finite- and infinite-dimensional settings. Our results are based on the existence of dominating points for these sets, a related…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-07 Uwe Einmahl , James Kuelbs

This paper is devoted to a fractional generalization of the Dirichlet distribution. The form of the multivariate distribution is derived assuming that the $n$ partitions of the interval $[0,W_n]$ are independent and identically distributed…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-02-17 Elvira Di Nardo , Federico Polito , Enrico Scalas

In this paper, we study the asymptotic behaviour of plane partitions distributed according to a $q^{\text{Volume}}$-weighted Muttalib--Borodin ensemble and its associated discrete point process. We establish a Large Deviation Principle for…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-09 Jonathan Husson , Guido Mazzuca , Alessandra Occelli

Exchangeable random partition processes are the basis for Bayesian approaches to statistical inference in large alphabet settings. On the other hand, the notion of the pattern of a sequence provides an information-theoretic framework for…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2014-10-22 Narayana P. Santhanam , Anand D. Sarwate , Jae Oh Woo

We develop an analog for shifted primes of the Kubilius model of prime factors of integers. We prove a total variation distance estimate for the difference between the model and actual prime factors of shifted primes, and apply it to show…

Number Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-21 Kevin Ford

The general relationship between an arbitrary frequency distribution and the expectation value of the frequency distributions of its samples is esablished. A set of combinations of expectation values whose value does not in general depend…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2012-10-05 Paolo Rossi

We provide a detailed importance sampling analysis for variance reduction in stochastic volatility models. The optimal change of measure is obtained using a variety of results from large and moderate deviations: small-time, large-time,…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2021-11-02 Marc Geha , Antoine Jacquier , Zan Zuric

In this paper we prove large and moderate deviations principles for the recursive kernel estimators of a probability density function defined by the stochastic approximation algorithm introduced by Mokkadem et al. [2009. The stochastic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-01-29 Yousri Slaoui

We consider preferential attachment random graphs which may be obtained as follows: It starts with a single node. If a new node appears, it is linked by an edge to one or more existing node(s) with a probability proportional to function of…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-01-29 K. Doku-Amponsah , F. O. Mettle , E. N. N. Nortey

Consider two forms of sampling from a population: (i) drawing $s$ samples of $n$ elements with replacement and (ii) drawing a single sample of $ns$ elements. In this paper, under the setting where the descending order population frequency…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-02-05 Koji Tsukuda , Shuhei Mano

We exploit a suitable moment-based characterization of the mixture of Poisson distribution for developing Bayesian inference for the unknown size of a finite population whose units are subject to multiple occurrences during an enumeration…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-19 Danilo Alunni Fegatelli , Luca Tardella

Given a symmetric random walk in $Z^2$ with finite second moments, let $R_n$ be the range of the random walk up to time $n$. We study moderate deviations for $R_n -E R_n$ and $E R_n -R_n$. We also derive the corresponding laws of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Richard F. Bass , Xia Chen , Jay Rosen

The Pitman-Yor process is a random probability distribution, that can be used as a prior distribution in a nonparametric Bayesian analysis. The process is of species sampling type and generates discrete distributions, which yield of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-10 S. E. M. P. Franssen , A. W. van der Vaart

The aim of this paper is to develop tractable large deviation approximations for the empirical measure of a small noise diffusion. The starting point is the Freidlin-Wentzell theory, which shows how to approximate via a large deviation…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-11 Paul Dupuis , Guo-Jhen Wu

The Ewens-Pitman sampling model (EP-SM) is a distribution for random partitions of the set $\{1,\ldots,n\}$, with $n\in\mathbb{N}$, which is index by real parameters $\alpha$ and $\theta$ such that either $\alpha\in[0,1)$ and…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-11-05 Emanuele Dolera , Stefano Favaro