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State space models (SSM) have been widely applied for the analysis and visualization of large sequential datasets. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) is a very popular particle-based method to sample latent states from intractable posteriors.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-01-07 Duo Xu

We present the Monte Carlo with Absorbing Markov Chains (MCAMC) method for extremely long kinetic Monte Carlo simulations. The MCAMC algorithm does not modify the system dynamics. It is extremely useful for models with discrete state spaces…

Materials Science · Physics 2007-05-23 M. A. Novotny , Shannon M. Wheeler

In this article we develop a new sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method for multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo estimation. In particular, the method can be used to estimate expectations with respect to a target probability distribution over an…

Computation · Statistics 2017-03-16 Alexandros Beskos , Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Youssef Marzouk , Yan Zhou

Path integral Monte Carlo (PIMC) simulations have become an important tool for the investigation of the statistical mechanics of quantum systems. I discuss some of the history of applying the Monte Carlo method to non-relativistic quantum…

History and Philosophy of Physics · Physics 2016-11-23 Tilman Sauer

Process monitoring and control requires detection of structural changes in a data stream in real time. This article introduces an efficient sequential Monte Carlo algorithm designed for learning unknown changepoints in continuous time. The…

Applications · Statistics 2015-09-29 Melissa J. M. Turcotte , Nicholas A. Heard

We propose a variant of the Simulated Annealing method for optimization in the multivariate analysis of differentiable functions. The method uses global actualizations via the Hybrid Monte Carlo algorithm in their generalized version for…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-30 R. Salazar , R. Toral

We introduce a Monte Carlo scheme for sampling bold-line diagrammatic series specifying an unknown function in terms of itself. The range of convergence of this bold(-line) diagrammatic Monte Carlo (BMC) is significantly broader than that…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-13 Nikolay Prokof'ev , Boris Svistunov

The primary focus of Monte Carlo simulation is to identify and quantify risk related to uncertainty and variability in spreadsheet model inputs. The stress of Monte Carlo simulation often reveals logical errors in the underlying spreadsheet…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2010-01-26 Hilary L. Emmett , Lawrence I. Goldman

Computing risk measures of a financial portfolio comprising thousands of derivatives is a challenging problem because (a) it involves a nested expectation requiring multiple evaluations of the loss of the financial portfolio for different…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-01-10 Michael B. Giles , Abdul-Lateef Haji-Ali

A quantum Monte Carlo method combining update of the loop algorithm with the global flip of the world line is proposed as an efficient method to study the magnetization process in an external field, which has been difficult because of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 Hiroaki Onishi , Masamichi Nishino , Naoki Kawashima , Seiji Miyashita

Designing efficient learning algorithms with complexity guarantees for Markov decision processes (MDPs) with large or continuous state and action spaces remains a fundamental challenge. We address this challenge for entropy-regularized MDPs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-05 Matthieu Meunier , Christoph Reisinger , Yufei Zhang

Monte Carlo studies involving real time dynamics are severely restricted by the sign problem that emerges from highly oscillatory phase of the path integral. In this letter, we present a new method to compute real time quantities on the…

High Energy Physics - Lattice · Physics 2016-08-24 Andrei Alexandru , Gokce Basar , Paulo F. Bedaque , Sohan Vartak , Neill C. Warrington

Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are used to simulate from complex statistical distributions by way of a local exploration of these distributions. This local feature avoids heavy requests on understanding the nature of the target, but it…

Computation · Statistics 2018-04-12 Christian P. Robert , Victor Elvira , Nick Tawn , Changye Wu

Computational methods both open the frontiers of economic analysis and serve as a bottleneck in what can be achieved. We are the first to study whether Quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) algorithm can improve the runtime of economic applications and…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-09-24 Vladimir Skavysh , Sofia Priazhkina , Diego Guala , Thomas R. Bromley

Adaptive Monte Carlo methods are very efficient techniques designed to tune simulation estimators on-line. In this work, we present an alternative to stochastic approximation to tune the optimal change of measure in the context of…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-10-23 Benjamin Jourdain , Jérôme Lelong

This paper describes a new Monte Carlo method based on a novel stochastic potential switching algorithm. This algorithm enables the equilibrium properties of a system with potential $V$ to be computed using a Monte Carlo simulation for a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 C. H. Mak

We review quantum Monte Carlo methods for dealing with large shell model problems. These methods reduce the imaginary-time many-body evolution operator to a coherent superposition of one-body evolutions in fluctuating one-body fields; the…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2009-10-30 S. E. Koonin , D. J. Dean , K. Langanke

We propose a variance reduction framework for variational inference using the Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method. Our framework is built on reparameterized gradient estimators and "recycles" parameters obtained from past update history in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-03 Masahiro Fujisawa , Issei Sato

Computer simulation with Monte Carlo is an important tool to investigate the function and equilibrium properties of many systems with biological and soft matter materials solvable in solvents. The appropriate treatment of long-range…

Computational Physics · Physics 2015-06-15 Zecheng Gan , Zhenli Xu

Sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle methods, are a popular set of techniques for approximating high-dimensional probability distributions and their normalizing constants. These methods have found numerous applications in…

Computation · Statistics 2021-06-23 Jeremy Heng , Adrian N. Bishop , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet