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Recurrent boom-and-bust cycles are a salient feature of economic and financial history. Cycles found in the data are stochastic, often highly persistent, and span substantial fractions of the sample size. We refer to such cycles as "long".…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-03-10 Natasha Kang , Vadim Marmer

Searching for new effective risk factors on stock returns is an important research topic in asset pricing. Factor modeling is an active research topic in statistics and econometrics, with many new advances. However, these new methods have…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-09-27 Xialu Liu , John Guerard , Rong Chen , Ruey Tsay

High-dimensional multivariate spatial-temporal data arise frequently in a wide range of applications; however, there are relatively few statistical methods that can simultaneously deal with spatial, temporal and variable-wise dependencies…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-05 Elynn Y. Chen , Xin Yun , Rong Chen , Qiwei Yao

Modern time series forecasting methods, such as Transformer and its variants, have shown strong ability in sequential data modeling. To achieve high performance, they usually rely on redundant or unexplainable structures to model complex…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-30 Jingyi Hou , Zhen Dong , Jiayu Zhou , Zhijie Liu

This study presents an analytical approach to sector rotation, leveraging both factor models and fundamental metrics. We initiate with a systematic classification of sectors, followed by an empirical investigation into their returns.…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-01-02 Runjia Yang , Beining Shi

Estimating large covariance and precision matrices are fundamental in modern multivariate analysis. The problems arise from statistical analysis of large panel economics and finance data. The covariance matrix reveals marginal correlations…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-04-17 Jianqing Fan , Yuan Liao , Han Liu

We consider the estimation of approximate factor models for time series data, where strong serial and cross-sectional correlations amongst the idiosyncratic component are present. This setting comes up naturally in many applications, but…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-10 Jiahe Lin , George Michailidis

This paper deals with the time-varying high dimensional covariance matrix estimation. We propose two covariance matrix estimators corresponding with a time-varying approximate factor model and a time-varying approximate characteristic-based…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-10-29 Jaeheon Jung

We propose a combined model, which integrates the latent factor model and the logistic regression model, for the citation network. It is noticed that neither a latent factor model nor a logistic regression model alone is sufficient to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-12-03 Namjoon Suh , Xiaoming Huo , Eric Heim , Lee Seversky

Factor analysis refers to a statistical model in which observed variables are conditionally independent given fewer hidden variables, known as factors, and all the random variables follow a multivariate normal distribution. The parameter…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-03-04 Mathias Drton , Bernd Sturmfels , Seth Sullivant

Multi-event detection and recognition in real time is of challenge for a modern grid as its feature is usually non-identifiable. Based on factor model, this paper porposes a data-driven method as an alternative solution under the framework…

Applications · Statistics 2017-12-27 Fan Yang , Xing He , Robert Caiming Qiu , Zenan Ling

The paper considers linear regression problems where the number of predictor variables is possibly larger than the sample size. The basic motivation of the study is to combine the points of view of model selection and functional regression…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-02-24 Alois Kneip , Pascal Sarda

High-dimensional data analysis using traditional models suffers from overparameterization. Two types of techniques are commonly used to reduce the number of parameters - regularization and dimension reduction. In this project, we combine…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-26 Xialu Liu , Xin Wang

Recently, convex formulations of low-rank matrix factorization problems have received considerable attention in machine learning. However, such formulations often require solving for a matrix of the size of the data matrix, making it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-08-29 Benjamin D. Haeffele , Rene Vidal

Modeling matrix-valued time series is an interesting and important research topic. In this paper, we extend the method of Chang et al. (2017) to matrix-valued time series. For any given $p\times q$ matrix-valued time series, we look for…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-11 Zhaoxing Gao

Factorization models express a statistical object of interest in terms of a collection of simpler objects. For example, a matrix or tensor can be expressed as a sum of rank-one components. However, in practice, it can be challenging to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-06 Lorenzo Schiavon , Antonio Canale , David B. Dunson

This paper investigates the issue of determining the dimensions of row and column factor spaces in matrix-valued data. Exploiting the eigen-gap in the spectrum of sample second moment matrices of the data, we propose a family of randomised…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-29 Yong He , Xin-bing Kong , Lorenzo Trapani , Long Yu

We propose a novel approximate factor model tailored for analyzing time-dependent curve data. Our model decomposes such data into two distinct components: a low-dimensional predictable factor component and an unpredictable error term. These…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-26 Sven Otto , Nazarii Salish

We consider statistical inference in factor analysis for ergodic and non-ergodic diffusion processes from discrete observations. Factor model based on high frequency time series data has been mainly discussed in the field of high…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-02-04 Shogo Kusano , Masayuki Uchida

The evaluation of a matrix exponential function is a classic problem of computational linear algebra. Many different methods have been employed for its numerical evaluation [Moler C and van Loan C 1978 SIAM Review 20 4], none of which…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2008-11-18 D H Gebremedhin , C A Weatherford , X Zhang , A Wynn , G Tanaka