Related papers: Structure of continuous-time ARMA process driven b…
This paper derives a Minimum Message Length (MML) criterion for the model selection of the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) time series model. The MML87 performances on the ARMA model compared with other well known model selection…
Threshold autoregressive moving-average (TARMA) models are popular in time series analysis due to their ability to parsimoniously describe several complex dynamical features. However, neither theory nor estimation methods are currently…
Time-averaged autocorrelation functions of a dichotomous random process switching between 1 and 0 and governed by wide power law sojourn time distribution are studied. Such a process, called a L\'evy walk, describes dynamical behaviors of…
The class of locally stationary processes assumes that there is a time-varying spectral representation, that is, the existence of finite second moment. We propose the $\alpha$-stable locally stationary process by modifying the innovations…
In this paper, we investigate the asymptotic properties of Le Cam's one-step estimator for weak Fractionally AutoRegressive Integrated Moving-Average (FARIMA) models. For these models, noises are uncorrelated but neither necessarily…
For a L\'evy basis $L$ on $\mathbb{R}^d$ and a suitable kernel function $f:\mathbb{R}^d \to \mathbb{R}$, consider the continuous spatial moving average field $X=(X_t)_{t\in \mathbb{R}^d}$ defined by $X_t = \int_{\mathbb{R}^d} f(t-s) \,…
In this paper we study a class of \emph{self-consistent dynamical systems}, self-consistent in the sense that the discrete time dynamics is different in each step depending on current statistics. The general framework admits popular…
We define Conditional quasi concave Performance Measures (CPMs), on random variables bounded from below, to accommodate for additional information. Our notion encompasses a wide variety of cases, from conditional expected utility and…
Time-series forecasting underpins critical decisions across aviation, energy, retail and health. Classical autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models offer interpretability via coefficients but struggle with nonlinearities,…
We introduce a recursive algorithm of conveniently general form for estimating the coefficient of a moving average model of order one and obtain convergence results for both correct and misspecified MA(1) models. The algorithm encompasses…
Levy processes are widely used in financial mathematics, telecommunication, economics, queueing theory and natural sciences for modelling. A typical model is obtained by considering finite dimensional linear stochastic SISO systems driven…
In the paper we consider some piecewise deterministic Markov process whose continuous component evolves according to semiflows, which are switched at the jump times of a Poisson process. The associated Markov chain describes the states of…
In this paper, we investigate continual learning performance metrics used in class incremental learning strategies for continual learning (CL) using some high performing methods. We investigate especially mean task accuracy. First, we show…
The starting point for much of multivariate analysis (MVA) is an $n\times p$ data matrix whose $n$ rows represent observations and whose $p$ columns represent variables. Some multivariate data sets, however, may be best conceptualized not…
Let $A$ be a Lebesgue measure space. We interpret measures on $A\times A\times R_+$ as 'maps' from $A$ to $A$, which spread $A$ along itself; their Radon-Nikodym derivatives also are spread. We discuss basic properties of the semigroup of…
We present supremum Lagrange Multiplier tests to compare a linear ARMA specification against its threshold ARMA extension. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the test statistics both under the null hypothesis and contiguous local…
The semiclassical dynamics of a charged particle moving in a two-component plasma is considered using a corrected Kelbg pseudopotential. We employ the classical Nevanlinna-type theory of frequency moments to determine the velocity and force…
We propose convenient inferential methods for potentially nonstationary multivariate unobserved components models with fractional integration and cointegration. Based on finite-order ARMA approximations in the state space representation,…
We discuss dual time evolution scenarios which, albeit running according to the same real time clock, in each considered case may be mapped among each other by means of an analytic continuation in time. This dynamical duality is a generic…
The Levy-flight dynamics can stem from simple random walks in a system whose operational time (number of steps n) typically grows superlinearly with physical time t. Thus, this processes is a kind of continuous-time random walks (CTRW),…