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A program is a finite piece of data that produces a (possibly infinite) sequence of primitive instructions. From scratch we develop a linear notation for sequential, imperative programs, using a familiar class of primitive instructions and…
This paper introduces a local-to-unity/small sigma process for a stationary time series with strong persistence and non-negligible long run risk. This process represents the stationary long run component in an unobserved short- and long-run…
This paper aims at semi-parametrically estimating the input process to a L\'evy-driven queue by sampling the workload process at Poisson times. We construct a method-of-moments based estimator for the L\'evy process' characteristic…
Classical KAM theory guarantees the existence of a positive measure set of invariant tori for sufficiently smooth non-degenerate near-integrable systems. When seen as a function of the frequency this invariant collection of tori is called…
In this paper, we derive (local) orthogonality graphs for the popular continuous-time state space models, including in particular multivariate continuous-time ARMA (MCARMA) processes. In these (local) orthogonality graphs, vertices…
In this paper we present some limit theorems for power variation of L\'evy semi-stationary processes in the setting of infill asymptotics. L\'evy semi-stationary processes, which are a one-dimensional analogue of ambit fields, are moving…
Subspace methods like canonical variate analysis (CVA) are regression based methods for the estimation of linear dynamic state space models. They have been shown to deliver accurate (consistent and asymptotically equivalent to quasi maximum…
This work presents a Bayesian approach for the estimation of Beta Autoregressive Moving Average ($\beta$ARMA) models. We discuss standard choice for the prior distributions and employ a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from the…
Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models are widely used for analyzing time series data. However, standard likelihood-based inference methodology for ARMA models has avoidable limitations. We show that currently accepted standards for…
This paper investigates a partially linear spatial autoregressive panel data model that incorporates fixed effects, constant and time-varying regression coefficients, and a time-varying spatial lag coefficient. A two-stage least squares…
The standard approach for studying the periodic ARMA model with coefficients that vary over the seasons is to express it in a vector form. In this paper we introduce an alternative method which views the periodic formulation as a time…
This paper proposes the beta binomial autoregressive moving average model (BBARMA) for modeling quantized amplitude data and bounded count data. The BBARMA model estimates the conditional mean of a beta binomial distributed variable…
Vector AutoRegressive Moving Average (VARMA) models form a powerful and general model class for analyzing dynamics among multiple time series. While VARMA models encompass the Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) models, their popularity in…
High-dimensional time series are a core ingredient of the statistical modeling toolkit, for which numerous estimation methods are known.But when observations are scarce or corrupted, the learning task becomes much harder.The question is:…
We develop an approach to time-consistent risk evaluation of continuous-time processes in Markov systems. Our analysis is based on dual representation of coherent risk measures, differentiability concepts for multivalued mappings, and a…
Safe autonomous driving requires both accurate HD map construction and persistent awareness of traffic rules, even when their associated signs are no longer visible. However, existing methods either focus solely on geometric elements or…
This paper is concerned with deriving the limit distributions of stopping times devised to sequentially uncover structural breaks in the parameters of an autoregressive moving average, ARMA, time series. The stopping rules are defined as…
This paper is about vector autoregressive-moving average (VARMA) models with time-dependent coefficients to represent non-stationary time series. Contrarily to other papers in the univariate case, the coefficients depend on time but not on…
Generalized autoregressive moving average (GARMA) models are a class of models that was developed for extending the univariate Gaussian ARMA time series model to a flexible observation-driven model for non-Gaussian time series data. This…
The ordinary Levy motion is a random process whose stationary independent increments are statistically self-affine and distributed with a stable probability law characterized by the Levy index alpha, 0 < alpha < 2. The divergence of…