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Reinforcement learning (RL) plays a crucial role in shaping the behavior of large language and reasoning models (LLMs/LRMs). However, it often produces brittle and unstable policies, leading to critical failures such as spurious reasoning,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-07-29 Xingcheng Xu

Uncertainty estimation is critical for deploying reasoning language models, yet remains poorly understood under extended chain-of-thought reasoning. We study parallel sampling as a fully black-box approach using verbalized confidence and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-20 Maksym Del , Markus Kängsepp , Marharyta Domnich , Ardi Tampuu , Lisa Yankovskaya , Meelis Kull , Mark Fishel

In this paper, we have considered the dense rank for assigning positions to alternatives in weak orders. If we arrange the alternatives in tiers (i.e., indifference classes), the dense rank assigns position 1 to all the alternatives in the…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-07-03 José Luis García-Lapresta , Miguel Martínez-Panero

The problem of ranking/ordering instances, instead of simply classifying them, has recently gained much attention in machine learning. In this paper we formulate the ranking problem in a rigorous statistical framework. The goal is to learn…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-16 Stéphan Clémençon , Gábor Lugosi , Nicolas Vayatis

Ordered probit and logit models have been frequently used to estimate the mean ranking of happiness outcomes (and other ordinal data) across groups. However, it has been recently highlighted that such ranking may not be identified in most…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-06-08 Le-Yu Chen , Ekaterina Oparina , Nattavudh Powdthavee , Sorawoot Srisuma

This paper analyzes the limit properties of the empirical process of $\alpha$-stable random variables with long range dependence. The $\alpha$-stable random variables are constructed by non-linear transformations of bivariate sequences of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-07-29 Emanuele Taufer

The problem of statistical inference in its various forms has been the subject of decades-long extensive research. Most of the effort has been focused on characterizing the behavior as a function of the number of available samples, with far…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-12 Tomer Berg , Or Ordentlich , Ofer Shayevitz

Ranked set sampling is a sampling design which has a wide range of applications in industrial statistics, and environmental and ecological studies, etc.. It is well known that ranked set samples provide more Fisher information than simple…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-01-21 Mohammad Jafari Jozani , Jafar Ahmadi

Let $M$ be an $n \times m$ matrix of independent Rademacher ($\pm 1$) random variables. It is well known that if $n \leq m$, then $M$ is of full rank with high probability. We show that this property is resilient to adversarial changes to…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2021-07-01 Asaf Ferber , Kyle Luh , Gweneth McKinley

A number of random matrix ensembles permitting exact determination of their eigenvalue and eigenvector statistics maintain this property under a rank $1$ perturbation. Considered in this review are the additive rank $1$ perturbation of the…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2022-01-24 Peter J. Forrester

Symmetry arises often when learning from high dimensional data. For example, data sets consisting of point clouds, graphs, and unordered sets appear routinely in contemporary applications, and exhibit rich underlying symmetries.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-02-06 Mateo Díaz , Dmitriy Drusvyatskiy , Jack Kendrick , Rekha R. Thomas

Adaptive experiments such as multi-arm bandits adapt the treatment-allocation policy and/or the decision to stop the experiment to the data observed so far. This has the potential to improve outcomes for study participants within the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-03 Aurélien Bibaut , Nathan Kallus

It is common to be interested in rankings or order relationships among entities. In complex settings where one does not directly measure a univariate statistic upon which to base ranks, such inferences typically rely on statistical models…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-12 Andres F. Barrientos , Deborshee Sen , Garritt L Page , David B Dunson

Bayesian inference for rank-order problems is frustrated by the absence of an explicit likelihood function. This hurdle can be overcome by assuming a latent normal representation that is consistent with the ordinal information in the data:…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-20 Johnny van Doorn , Alexander Ly , Maarten Marsman , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

We generalize the notion of minimax convergence rate. In contrast to the standard definition, we do not assume that the sample size is fixed in advance. Allowing for varying sample size results in time-robust minimax rates and estimators.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-01 Alisa Kirichenko , Peter Grünwald

Random samples are lossy summaries which allow queries posed over the data to be approximated by applying an appropriate estimator to the sample. The effectiveness of sampling, however, hinges on estimator selection. The choice of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-04-10 Edith Cohen

Language Models (LMs) have shown promising performance in natural language generation. However, as LMs often generate incorrect or hallucinated responses, it is crucial to correctly quantify their uncertainty in responding to given inputs.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-17 Xinmeng Huang , Shuo Li , Mengxin Yu , Matteo Sesia , Hamed Hassani , Insup Lee , Osbert Bastani , Edgar Dobriban

We prove that a suitably de-biased version of Chatterjee's rank correlation based on i.i.d. copies of a random vector $(X,Y)$ is asymptotically normal whenever $Y$ is not almost surely constant. No further conditions on the joint…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-19 Marius Kroll

Asymptotic normality of intermediate order statistics taken from univariate iid random variables is well-known. We generalize this result to random vectors in arbitrary dimension, where the order statistics are taken componentwise.

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-07-21 Michael Falk , Florian Wisheckel

Benchmarks have emerged as the central approach for evaluating Large Language Models (LLMs). The research community often relies on a model's average performance across the test prompts of a benchmark to evaluate the model's performance.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-06-07 Melissa Ailem , Katerina Marazopoulou , Charlotte Siska , James Bono