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We present a Boltzmann equation for mixtures of three species of particles reducing to the Kermack-McKendrick (SIR) equations for the time-evolution of the density of infected agents in an isolated population. The kinetic model is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-05-21 Mario Pulvirenti , Sergio Simonella

The SIR model is a classical model characterizing the spreading of infectious diseases. This model describes the time-dependent quantity changes among Susceptible, Infectious, and Recovered groups. By introducing space-depend effects such…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2024-09-18 Md Abu Talha , Yongjia Xu , Shan Zhao , Weihua Geng

We propose a stochastic SIR model, specified as a system of stochastic differential equations, to analyse the data of the Italian COVID-19 epidemic, taking also into account the under-detection of infected and recovered individuals in the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-02-22 Sara Pasquali , Antonio Pievatolo , Antonella Bodini , Fabrizio Ruggeri

This paper is concerned with the well-posedness of a diffusion-reaction system for a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) mathematical model. This model is written in terms of four nonlinear partial differential equations with…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2023-07-26 Ferdinando Auricchio , Pierluigi Colli , Gianni Gilardi , Alessandro Reali , Elisabetta Rocca

In this article, we construct a numerical method for a stochastic version of the Susceptible Infected Susceptible (SIS) epidemic model, expressed by a suitable stochastic differential equation (SDE), by using the semi-discrete method to a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-07-28 Yiannis Kiouvrekis , Ioannis S. Stamatiou

We investigate nonparametric estimation of sliced inverse regression (SIR) via the $k$-nearest neighbors approach with a kernel. An estimator of the covariance matrix of the conditional expectation of the explanatory random vector given the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-27 Luran Bengono Mintogo , Emmanuel de Dieu Nkou , Guy Martial Nkiet

In this work, we have described the mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission using fractional differential equations. The mathematical modeling of infectious disease goes back to the 1760s when the famous mathematician Daniel…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-08-01 Rishi Patel , P. Sainani , M. Brar , R. Patel , X. Li , J. Drozd , F. A. Chishtie , A. Benterki , T. C. Scott , S. R. Valluri

In this paper, we show how to modify a compartmental epidemic model, without changing the dimension, such that separable static heterogeneity is taken into account. The derivation is based on the Kermack-McKendrick renewal equation.

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-11-24 Odo Diekmann , Hisashi Inaba

The principal objective in this paper is a new inverse approach to general Dirac-type systems modeled after B. Simon's 1999 inverse approach to half-line Schr\"odinger operators. In particular, we derive the so-called A-equation associated…

Spectral Theory · Mathematics 2019-03-05 Fritz Gesztesy , Alexander Sakhnovich

We analyse the infection-age-dependent SIR model from a numerical point of view. First, we present an algorithm for calculating the solution the infection-age-structured SIR model without demography of the background host. Second, we…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-06-29 Ralph Brinks , Annika Hoyer

Predicting Pandemic evolution involves complex modeling challenges, often requiring detailed discrete mathematics executed on large volumes of epidemiological data. Differential equations have the advantage of offering smooth, well-behaved…

Biological Physics · Physics 2023-02-28 Clara Bender , Abhimanyu Ghosh , Hamed Vakili , Preetam Ghosh , Avik W. Ghosh

We generalize the well known formulation of the susceptibles, infected, susceptibles (SIS) spatial epidemics with creation and annihilation operators to the reinfection model including recovered which can be reinfected, the SIRI model,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-06-30 Nico Stollenwerk , Maira Aguiar

Within the likes of any highly contagious and unpredictable disease, lies a predictable and attainable growth rate that researchers can find in order to make logistical conclusions about that particular disease and its affected regions'…

Applications · Statistics 2024-02-05 Julian Bennett , Lauren Eriksen , Xingjie Helen Li

The primary tool for predicting infectious disease spread and intervention effectiveness is the mass action Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model of Kermack and McKendrick. Its usefulness derives largely from its conceptual and mathematical…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-09-03 Joel C. Miller , Anja C. Slim , Erik M. Volz

In this work, the SIR epidemiological model is reformulated so to highlight the important {\em effective reproduction number}, as well as to account for the {\em generation time}, inverse of the {\em incidence rate}, and the {\em infectious…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-07-27 Ignazio Lazzizzera

We introduce a digital twin of the classical compartmental SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) epidemic model and study the interrelation between the digital twin and the system. In doing so, we use Stieltjes derivatives to feed the data…

Other Quantitative Biology · Quantitative Biology 2021-05-06 Iván Area , F. J. Fernández , Juan J. Nieto , F. Adrián F. Tojo

As global living standards improve and medical technology advances, many infectious diseases have been effectively controlled. However, certain diseases, such as the recent COVID-19 pandemic, continue to pose significant threats to public…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-02-24 Ayesha Baig , Li Zhouxin

Sliced inverse regression (SIR) is the most widely-used sufficient dimension reduction method due to its simplicity, generality and computational efficiency. However, when the distribution of the covariates deviates from the multivariate…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-09 Jia Zhang , Xin Chen , Wang Zhou

The SIR infection theory initiated by Kermack-Mckendrick in 1927 discusses the infection in an isolated population with uniform properties such as the uniform population distribution. In the infection, there exist two aspects: (1) The…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-09-04 Hiroshi Isshiki , Masao Namiki , Takeshi Kinoshita , Ryosuke Yano

We study extended infection fronts advancing over a spatially uniform susceptible population by solving numerically a diffusive Kermack McKendrick SIR model with a dichotomous spatially random transmission rate, in two dimensions. We find a…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2019-06-11 A. B. Kolton , K. Laneri