Related papers: Risk-Consistent Conditional Systemic Risk Measures
We study the task of learning from non-i.i.d. data. In particular, we aim at learning predictors that minimize the conditional risk for a stochastic process, i.e. the expected loss of the predictor on the next point conditioned on the set…
This paper contains an overview of results for dynamic multivariate risk measures. We provide the main results of four different approaches. We will prove under which assumptions results within these approaches coincide, and how properties…
Conformal prediction provides prediction sets with finite-sample marginal coverage, but many applications require coverage guarantees that adapt to individual test points, a subpopulation, or a structural component of the data. Existing…
This paper studies the security of cyber-physical systems under attacks. Our goal is to design system parameters, such as a set of initial conditions and input bounds so that it is secure by design. To this end, we propose new sufficient…
Two approaches to time consistency of risk averse multistage stochastic problems were discussed in the recent literature. In one approach certain properties of the cor-responding risk measure are postulated which imply its decomposability.…
We study coherent risk measures which are time-consistent for multiple filtrations. We show that a coherent risk measure is time-consistent for every filtration if and only if it is one of four main types. Furthermore, if the risk measure…
In this paper, we propose a novel association measure for longitudinal studies based on the traditional definition of relative risk. In a Markovian fashion, such a proposal takes into account the information content regarding the previous…
We present a scheme for sequential decision making with a risk-sensitive objective and constraints in a dynamic environment. A neural network is trained as an approximator of the mapping from parameter space to space of risk and policy with…
The paper concerns primal and dual representations as well as time consistency of set-valued dynamic risk measures. Set-valued risk measures appear naturally when markets with transaction costs are considered and capital requirements can be…
Systemic risk measures play a crucial role in analyzing individual losses conditional on extreme system-wide disasters. In this paper, we provide a unified asymptotic treatment for systemic risk measures. First, we classify them into two…
We give a complete characterization of both comonotone and not comonotone coherent risk measures in the discrete finite probability space, where each outcome is equally likely. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that…
We develop a framework for regularly varying measures on complete separable metric spaces $\mathbb{S}$ with a closed cone $\mathbb{C}$ removed, extending material in Hult & Lindskog (2006), Das, Mitra & Resnick (2013). Our framework…
Monetary risk measures are usually interpreted as the smallest amount of external capital that must be added to a financial position to make it acceptable. We propose a new concept: intrinsic risk measures and argue that this approach…
Symmetry plays a central role in the sciences, machine learning, and statistics. While statistical tests for the presence of distributional invariance with respect to groups have a long history, tests for conditional symmetry in the form of…
We develop a new method for generating prediction sets that combines the flexibility of conformal methods with an estimate of the conditional distribution $P_{Y \mid X}$. Existing methods, such as conformalized quantile regression and…
The main goal of this paper is to investigate under which conditions cash-subadditive convex dynamic risk measures are time-consistent. Proceeding as in Detlefsen and Scandolo \cite{detlef-scandolo} and inspired by their result, we give a…
Starting from the global financial crisis to the more recent disruptions brought about by geopolitical tensions and public health crises, the volatility of risk in financial markets has increased significantly. This underscores the…
We present a framework for constructing multivariate risk measures that is inspired from univariate Optimized Certainty Equivalent (OCE) risk measures. We show that this new class of risk measures verifies the desirable properties such as…
We introduce the formalism of generalized Fourier transforms in the context of risk management. We develop a general framework to efficiently compute the most popular risk measures, Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall (also known as…
While on the one hand, chaotic dynamical systems can be predicted for all time given exact knowledge of an initial state, they are also in many cases rapidly mixing, meaning that smooth probabilistic information (quantified by measures) on…