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In this article, we propose a network spread model for HIV epidemics, wherein each individual is represented by a node of the transmission network and the edges are the connections between individuals along which the infection may spread.…

Ending the HIV/AIDS pandemic is among the Sustainable Development Goals for the next decade. In order to overcome the gap between the need for care and the available resources, better understanding of HIV epidemics is needed to guide policy…

Estimating new HIV infections is significant yet challenging due to the difficulty in distinguishing between recent and long-term infections. We demonstrate that HIV recency status (recent v.s. long-term) could be determined from the…

An increasing amount of geo-referenced mobile phone data enables the identification of behavioral patterns, habits and movements of people. With this data, we can extract the knowledge potentially useful for many applications including the…

We present a comprehensive statistical methodological framework for estimating contextual exposure to HIV that includes local (grid-cell level) estimation of HIV prevalence and human activity space estimation based on GPS data. The…

As the global HIV pandemic enters its fourth decade, increasing numbers of surveillance sites have been established which allows countries to look into the epidemics at a finer scale, e.g. at sub-national level. However, the epidemic models…

We establish a stochastic HIV/AIDS model for the individuals with protection awareness and reveal how the protection awareness plays its important role in the control of AIDS. We firstly show that there exists a global positive solution for…

Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is a procedure to sample from hard-to-reach populations. It has been widely used in several countries, especially in the monitoring of HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted infections. Hard-to-reach…

Key populations at high risk of HIV infection are critical for understanding and monitoring HIV epidemics, but global estimation is hampered by sparse, uneven data. We analyze data from 199 countries for female sex workers (FSW), men who…

Network surveys of key populations at risk for HIV are an essential part of the effort to understand how the epidemic spreads and how it can be prevented. Estimation of population values from the sample data has been probematical, however,…

It is the main purpose of this paper to introduce a graph-valued stochastic process in order to model the spread of a communicable infectious disease. The major novelty of the SIR model we promote lies in the fact that the social network on…

This study conducts a comparative analysis of stochastic and deterministic models to better understand the dynamics of the HIV epidemic across genders. By incorporating gender-specific transmission probabilities and treatment uptake rates,…

A two-sex Basic Reproduction Number (BRN) is used to investigate the conditions under which the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) may spread through heterosexual contacts in Sub-Saharan Africa. (The BRN is the expected number of new…

This article introduces novel methodologies for estimating contextual exposure to HIV population viral load using GPS data. We propose a comprehensive analytical framework comprising (i) local (grid-cell level) estimation of HIV population…

Men who have sex with men (MSM) remain disproportionately affected by HIV, yet optimizing Pre-exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) distribution remains a public health challenge. Current guidelines and most modelling studies do not incorporate…

The spread of sexually transmitted diseases (e.g. Chlamydia, Syphilis, Gonorrhea, HIV) across populations is a major concern for scientists and health agencies. In this context, both data collection on sexual contact networks and the…

The United Nations (UN) issued official probabilistic population projections for all countries to 2100 in July 2015. This was done by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy from Bayesian hierarchical models, and…

Recent clinical studies have shown that HIV disease pathogenesis can depend strongly on many factors at the time of transmission, including the strength of the initial viral load and the local availability of CD4+ T-cells. In this article,…

Respondent-Driven Sampling (RDS) is a variant of link-tracing sampling techniques that aim to recruit hard-to-reach populations by leveraging individuals' social relationships. As such, an RDS sample has a graphical component which…

A simple deterministic model is proposed to represent the basic aspects concerning the effects of different antiretroviral treatment schedules on HIV incidence and prevalence of affected populations. The model mimics current treatment…