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We propose a novel class of multivariate GARCH models that incorporate realized measures of volatility and correlations. The key innovation is an unconstrained vector parametrization of the conditional correlation matrix, which enables the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-07 Ilya Archakov , Peter Reinhard Hansen , Asger Lunde

Although stochastic volatility and GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) models have successfully described the volatility dynamics of univariate asset returns, extending them to the multivariate models with…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-10-09 Yuta Yamauchi , Yasuhiro Omori

We suggest two classes of multivariate GARCH--models which are both easy to estimate and perform well in forecasting the covariance matrix of more than one hundred stocks. We apply methods from random matrix theory (RMT) to determine the…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2007-05-23 C. Reese , B. Rosenow

A plethora of static and dynamic models exist to forecast Value-at-Risk and other quantile-related metrics used in financial risk management. Industry practice tends to favour simpler, static models such as historical simulation or its…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-11 Carol Alexander , Yang Han

This paper examines volatility in REITs using a multivariate GARCH based model. The Multivariate VAR-GARCH technique documents the return and volatility linkages between REIT sub-sectors and also examines the influence of other US equity…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2011-03-30 John Cotter , Simon Stevenson

Matrix-variate time series data are largely available in applications. However, no attempt has been made to study their conditional heteroskedasticity that is often observed in economic and financial data. To address this gap, we propose a…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-09 Cheng Yu , Dong Li , Feiyu Jiang , Ke Zhu

In the stochastic volatility models for multivariate daily stock returns, it has been found that the estimates of parameters become unstable as the dimension of returns increases. To solve this problem, we focus on the factor structure of…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-09-16 Yuta Yamauchi , Yasuhiro Omori

We introduce a novel GARCH model that integrates two sources of uncertainty to better capture the rich, multi-component dynamics often observed in the volatility of financial assets. This model provides a quasi closed-form representation of…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-10-21 Luca Vincenzo Ballestra , Enzo D'Innocenzo , Christian Tezza

Multivariate GARCH models are important tools to describe the dynamics of multivariate times series of financial returns. Nevertheless, these models have been much less used in practice due to the lack of reliable software. This paper…

Computation · Statistics 2014-12-10 Jose A. Fioruci , Ricardo S. Ehlers , Francisco Louzada

It is now widely accepted that volatility models have to incorporate the so-called leverage effect in order to to model the dynamics of daily financial returns.We suggest a new class of multivariate power transformed asymmetric models. It…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-10-17 Yacouba Boubacar Maïnassara , Othman Kadmiri , Bruno Saussereau

Modeling returns on large portfolios is a challenging problem as the number of parameters in the covariance matrix grows as the square of the size of the portfolio. Traditional correlation models, for example, the dynamic conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-25 Lupe Shun Hin Chan , Amanda Man Ying Chu , Mike Ka Pui So

Modeling the time-varying covariance structures of high-dimensional variables is critical across diverse scientific and industrial applications; however, existing approaches exhibit notable limitations in either modeling flexibility or…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Taehee Lee , Jun S. Liu

We provide a simple method to estimate the parameters of multivariate stochastic volatility models with latent factor structures. These models are very useful as they alleviate the standard curse of dimensionality, allowing the number of…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-02-15 Giorgio Calzolari , Roxana Halbleib , Christian Mücher

This work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical and financial time series. A class of volatility models with time-varying parameters is presented to forecast the volatility of time series in a stationary environment. The modeling…

Motivated by practical applications, we explore the constrained multi-period mean-variance portfolio selection problem within a market characterized by a dynamic factor model. This model captures predictability in asset returns driven by…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-02-26 Jianjun Gao , Chengneng Jin , Yun Shi , Xiangyu Cui

A spin model is used for simulations of financial markets. To determine return volatility in the spin financial market we use the GARCH model often used for volatility estimation in empirical finance. We apply the Bayesian inference…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-11-28 Tetsuya Takaishi

We introduce a multivariate stochastic volatility model for asset returns that imposes no restrictions to the structure of the volatility matrix and treats all its elements as functions of latent stochastic processes. When the number of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-01-09 P. Dellaportas , A. Plataniotis , M. K. Titsias

We examine how the most prevalent stochastic properties of key financial time series have been affected during the recent financial crises. In particular we focus on changes associated with the remarkable economic events of the last two…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-03-28 Menelaos Karanasos , Alexandros Paraskevopoulos , Faek Menla Ali , Michail Karoglou , Stavroula Yfanti

The majority of stylized facts of financial time series and several Value-at-Risk measures are modeled via univariate or multivariate GARCH processes. It is not rare that advanced GARCH models fail to converge for computational reasons, and…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-05-02 Stavros Stavroyiannis

We present a reactive beta model that includes the leverage effect to allow hedge fund managers to target a near-zero beta for market neutral strategies. For this purpose, we derive a metric of correlation with leverage effect to identify…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2019-11-05 Sebastien Valeyre , Denis S. Grebenkov , Sofiane Aboura
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