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In this paper, we introduce a new concept for constructing prior distributions. We exploit the natural nested structure inherent to many model components, which defines the model component to be a flexible extension of a base model. Proper…

Specifying a Bayesian prior is notoriously difficult for complex models such as neural networks. Reasoning about parameters is made challenging by the high-dimensionality and over-parameterization of the space. Priors that seem benign and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-22 Eric Nalisnick , Jonathan Gordon , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

The autoregressive process of order $p$ (AR($p$)) is a central model in time series analysis. A Bayesian approach requires the user to define a prior distribution for the coefficients of the AR($p$) model. Although it is easy to write down…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-09-01 Sigrunn Holbek Sørbye , Håvard Rue

Advancements in computational power and methodologies have enabled research on massive datasets. However, tools for analyzing data with directional or periodic characteristics, such as wind directions and customers' arrival time in 24-hour…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-07 Xiang Ye , Janet Van Niekerk , Håvard Rue

Many of the data, particularly in medicine and disease mapping are count. Indeed, the under or overdispersion problem in count data distrusts the performance of the classical Poisson model. For taking into account this problem, in this…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-19 Mahsa Nadifar , Hossein Baghishani , Thomas Kneib , Afshin Fallah

Bayesian statistical models allow us to formalise our knowledge about the world and reason about our uncertainty, but there is a need for better procedures to accurately encode its complexity. One way to do so is through compositional…

Computation · Statistics 2017-03-01 Maria Lomeli

The goal of causal inference is to understand the outcome of alternative courses of action. However, all causal inference requires assumptions. Such assumptions can be more influential than in typical tasks for probabilistic modeling, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-31 Dustin Tran , Francisco J. R. Ruiz , Susan Athey , David M. Blei

The penalized profile sampler for semiparametric inference is an extension of the profile sampler method (Lee, Kosorok and Fine, 2005) obtained by profiling a penalized log-likelihood. The idea is to base inference on the posterior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Guang Cheng , Michael R. Kosorok

This work builds on a rich discourse surrounding the social brain hypothesis as well as the definition and quantification of social complexity. We believe this manuscript provides a new perspective on the topic by pairing a conceptual…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-03-25 Etienne Lein , Cécile Aprili , Jayaditya Deep , Isaac Kazuo Uyehara

The paper considers model selection in regression under the additional structural constraints on admissible models where the number of potential predictors might be even larger than the available sample size. We develop a Bayesian formalism…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-02-19 Felix Abramovich , Vadim Grinshtein

Our article described an experiment that adjudicates between different causal accounts of Bell inequality violations by a comparison of their predictive power, finding that certain types of models that are structurally radical but…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-12-05 Patrick Daley , Kevin J. Resch , Robert W. Spekkens

Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) are commonly considered *interpretable* within the ML community, as their structure makes the relationship between inputs and outputs relatively understandable. Therefore, it may seem natural to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-06 Shahaf Bassan , Michal Moshkovitz , Guy Katz

Challenging research in various fields has driven a wide range of methodological advances in variable selection for regression models with high-dimensional predictors. In comparison, selection of nonlinear functions in models with additive…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-03-05 Fabian Scheipl , Thomas Kneib , Ludwig Fahrmeir

Motivated by the problem of finding finite versions of classical incompleteness theorems, we present some conjectures that go beyond ${\bf NP\neq co NP}$. These conjectures formally connect computational complexity with the difficulty of…

Logic · Mathematics 2017-05-22 Pavel Pudlak

Turning rich neuroimaging data into mechanistic insight remains challenging. Statistical models capture associations but remain largely agnostic to underlying mechanisms. Biophysical models embody candidate mechanisms but remain difficult…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2026-01-15 Dominic Boutet , Sylvain Baillet

This paper is devoted to the estimation of a partial graphical model with a structural Bayesian penalization. Precisely, we are interested in the linear regression setting where the estimation is made through the direct links between…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-25 Eunice Okome Obiang , Pascal Jézéquel , Frédéric Proïa

Compositionality is thought to be a key component of language, and various compositional benchmarks have been developed to empirically probe the compositional generalization of existing sequence processing models. These benchmarks often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-07 Parikshit Ram , Tim Klinger , Alexander G. Gray

Recently, topic modeling has been widely used to discover the abstract topics in text corpora. Most of the existing topic models are based on the assumption of three-layer hierarchical Bayesian structure, i.e. each document is modeled as a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2017-04-10 Yi-Kun Tang , Xian-Ling Mao , Heyan Huang , Guihua Wen

Building software-driven systems that are easily understood becomes a challenge, with their ever-increasing complexity and autonomy. Accordingly, recent research efforts strive to aid in designing explainable systems. Nevertheless, a common…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-02-11 Dimitri Bohlender , Maximilian A. Köhl

Neurally-parameterized Structural Causal Models in the Pearlian notion to causality, referred to as NCM, were recently introduced as a step towards next-generation learning systems. However, said NCM are only concerned with the learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-27 Matej Zečević , Devendra Singh Dhami , Kristian Kersting
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