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This paper is concerned with the study of the stability of dynamical systems evolving on time scales. We first {formalize the notion of matrix measures on time scales, prove some of their key properties and make use of this notion to study…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-06-10 Giovanni Russo , Fabian Wirth

We investigate the large-sample behavior of change-point tests based on weighted two-sample U-statistics, in the case of short-range dependent data. Under some mild mixing conditions, we establish convergence of the test statistic to an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-04-04 Herold Dehling , Kata Vuk , Martin Wendler

We investigate the properties of uniform doubly stochastic random matrices, that is non-negative matrices conditioned to have their rows and columns sum to 1. The rescaled marginal distributions are shown to converge to exponential…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-11-01 Sourav Chatterjee , Persi Diaconis , Allan Sly

This paper introduces constrained mixtures for continuous distributions, characterized by a mixture of distributions where each distribution has a shape similar to the base distribution and disjoint domains. This new concept is used to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-03-29 Conrado S. Miranda , Fernando J. Von Zuben

It will be discussed the statistics of the extreme values in time series characterized by finite-term correlations with non-exponential decay. Precisely, it will be considered the results of numerical analyses concerning the return…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-13 Cecilia Pennetta

A {\em maximal inequality} seeks to estimate $\mathbb{E}\max_i X_i$ in terms of properties of the $X_i$. When the latter are independent, the union bound (in its various guises) can yield tight upper bounds. If, however, the $X_i$ are…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-07-25 Aryeh Kontorovich

Inspired by applications in sports where the skill of players or teams competing against each other varies over time, we propose a probabilistic model of pairwise-comparison outcomes that can capture a wide range of time dynamics. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-20 Lucas Maystre , Victor Kristof , Matthias Grossglauser

We establish general conditions under which there exists uniform in time convergence between a stochastic process and its approximated system. These standardised conditions consist of a local in time estimate between the original and the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-12-09 Katharina Schuh , Iain Souttar

Building on the recent notion of non-uniform complete observability, and on the fact that this property ensures non-uniform exponential detectability, this paper establishes the converse implication under suitable additional assumptions.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-12-16 Ignacio Huerta , Pablo Monzón

Hoeffding-type exponential inequalities are obtained for the distribution tails of canonical von Mises' statistics of arbitrary order based on samples from a stationary sequence of random variables satisfying the {\varphi}-mixing condition.…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-02 I. S. Borisov , N. Volodko

In this work we prove sufficient conditions for the Glauber dynamics corresponding to a sequence of (non-product) measures on finite product spaces to be rapidly mixing, i.e. that the mixing time with respect to the total variation distance…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-02-27 Arthur Sinulis

The strong convergence of Euler approximations of stochastic delay differential equations is proved under general conditions. The assumptions on drift and diffusion coefficients have been relaxed to include polynomial growth and only…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-03-07 Chaman Kumar , Sotirios Sabanis

Measuring the statistical dependence between observed signals is a primary tool for scientific discovery. However, biological systems often exhibit complex non-linear interactions that currently cannot be captured without a priori knowledge…

We develop a class of exponential bounds for the probability that a martingale sequence crosses a time-dependent linear threshold. Our key insight is that it is both natural and fruitful to formulate exponential concentration inequalities…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-18 Steven R. Howard , Aaditya Ramdas , Jon McAuliffe , Jasjeet Sekhon

We present a simple and general result that the sign of the variations or increments of uncorrelated times series are predictable with a remarkably high success probability of 75% for symmetric sign distributions. The origin of this…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 D. Sornette , J. V. Andersen

In this paper, we obtain quantitative, non-asymptotic, and data-dependent \textit{Bernstein-von Mises type} bounds on the normal approximation of the posterior distribution in exponential family models with arbitrary centring and scaling.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-14 Adrian Fischer , Robert E. Gaunt , Gesine Reinert , Yvik Swan

Recurrence plots provide a graphical representation of the recurrent patterns in a timeseries, the quantification of which is a relatively new field. Here we derive analytical expressions which relate the values of key statistics, notably…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 T. K. March , S. C. Chapman , R. O. Dendy

Using the superstatistics method, we propose an extension of the random matrix theory to cover systems with mixed regular-chaotic dynamics. Unlike most of the other works in this direction, the ensembles of the proposed approach are basis…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 A. Y. Abul-Magd

Generalized linear statistics are an unifying class that contains U-statistics, U-quantiles, L-statistics as well as trimmed and winsorized U-statistics. For example, many commonly used estimators of scale fall into this class.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-08-19 Martin Wendler

Time series shapelets are discriminative subsequences and their similarity to a time series can be used for time series classification. Since the discovery of time series shapelets is costly in terms of time, the applicability on long or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-03-18 Martin Wistuba , Josif Grabocka , Lars Schmidt-Thieme
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