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Change point estimation in its offline version is traditionally performed by optimizing over the data set of interest, by considering each data point as the true location parameter and computing a data fit criterion. Subsequently, the data…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-10 Zhiyuan Lu , Moulinath Banerjee , George Michailidis

Change-point analysis is a flexible and computationally tractable tool for the analysis of times series data from systems that transition between discrete states and whose observables are corrupted by noise. The change-point algorithm is…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-05-22 Paul A. Wiggins , Colin H. LaMont

We propose a novel and unified framework for change-point estimation in multivariate time series. The proposed method is fully nonparametric, enjoys effortless tuning and is robust to temporal dependence. One salient and distinct feature of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-12 Zifeng Zhao , Feiyu Jiang , Xiaofeng Shao

In panel data we observe a usually high number N of individuals over a time period T. Even if T is large one often assumes stability of the model over time. We propose a nonparametric and robust test for a change in location and derive its…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-03-22 Alexander Dürre , Roland Fried

Changepoint detection is commonly formulated by minimizing the sum of in-sample losses to quantify the model's overall fit. However, for flexible modeling procedures -- especially those involving high-dimensional parameter spaces or…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-05 Chengde Qian , Guanghui Wang , Zhaojun Wang , Changliang Zou

It is quite common that the structure of a time series changes abruptly. Identifying these change points and describing the model structure in the segments between these change points is of interest. In this paper, time series data is…

Computation · Statistics 2019-12-18 Lijing Ma , Andrew Grant , Georgy Sofronov

Change-point processes are one flexible approach to model long time series. We propose a method to uncover which model parameter truly vary when a change-point is detected. Given a set of breakpoints, we use a penalized likelihood approach…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-02-09 Arnaud Dufays , Aristide Houndetoungan , Alain Coën

We study online change point detection for multivariate inhomogeneous Poisson point process time series. This setting arises commonly in applications such as earthquake seismology, climate monitoring, and epidemic surveillance, yet remains…

Given a heterogeneous time-series sample, the objective is to find points in time (called change points) where the probability distribution generating the data has changed. The data are assumed to have been generated by arbitrary unknown…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-05-13 Azadeh Khaleghi , Daniil Ryabko

This paper studies the unsupervised change point detection problem in time series of networks using the Separable Temporal Exponential-family Random Graph Model (STERGM). Inherently, dynamic network patterns are complex due to dyadic and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-01 Yik Lun Kei , Hangjian Li , Yanzhen Chen , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

Graph-based change point detection (CPD) play an irreplaceable role in discovering anomalous graphs in the time-varying network. While several techniques have been proposed to detect change points by identifying whether there is a…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2022-12-20 Yongshun Gong , Xue Dong , Jian Zhang , Meng Chen

Change point analysis is concerned with detecting and locating structure breaks in the underlying model of a sequence of observations ordered by time, space or other variables. A widely adopted approach for change point analysis is to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-10 Xingchi Li , Xianyang Zhang

This paper investigates change-point of variance in panel data models with time series of $\alpha$-mixing. Based on the cumulative sum (CUSUM) method and the individual differences, we construct a CUSUM test for panel data models to detect…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-16 Wenzhi Yang , Yueting Xu , Xiaoping Shi , Qiong Li

We present tidychangepoint, a new R package for changepoint detection analysis. Most R packages for segmenting univariate time series focus on providing one or two algorithms for changepoint detection that work with a small set of models…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-14 Benjamin S. Baumer , Biviana Marcela Suarez Sierra

Bayesian change-point detection, together with latent variable models, allows to perform segmentation over high-dimensional time-series. We assume that change-points lie on a lower-dimensional manifold where we aim to infer subsets of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-04 Lorena Romero-Medrano , Pablo Moreno-Muñoz , Antonio Artés-Rodríguez

Change-point detection studies the problem of detecting the changes in the underlying distribution of the data stream as soon as possible after the change happens. Modern large-scale, high-dimensional, and complex streaming data call for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-06-05 Haoyun Wang , Yao Xie

Online detection of instantaneous changes in the generative process of a data sequence generally focuses on retrospective inference of such change points without considering their future occurrences. We extend the Bayesian Online Change…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-25 Diego Agudelo-España , Sebastian Gomez-Gonzalez , Stefan Bauer , Bernhard Schölkopf , Jan Peters

Change-points are a routine feature of 'big data' observed in the form of high-dimensional data streams. In many such data streams, the component series possess group structures and it is natural to assume that changes only occur in a small…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-20 Hanqing Cai , Tengyao Wang

Conformal prediction has been explored as a general and efficient way to provide uncertainty quantification for time series. However, current methods struggle to handle time series data with change points - sudden shifts in the underlying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-02 Sophia Sun , Rose Yu

Many real-world time series, such as in health, have changepoints where the system's structure or parameters change. Since changepoints can indicate critical events such as onset of illness, it is highly important to detect them. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-17 Zahra Ebrahimzadeh , Min Zheng , Selcuk Karakas , Samantha Kleinberg