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Let F be a distribution function with negative mean and regularly varying right tail. Under a mild smoothness condition we derive higher order asymptotic expansions for the tail distribution of the maxima of the random walk generated by F.…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Ph . Barbe , W. P. McCormick , C. Zhang

We derive upper bounds for probabilities of the form $P(g(\mathbf{X})\geq t)$ using the southwest boundary (recently introduced in our previous work) $\partial_{\mathrm{SW}} Q(g^{-1}[t,\infty))$, where $Q$ is a reflection to the first…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-27 Stephen Jordan Harrison

In this paper non-asymptotic exponential estimates are derived for tail of maximum martingale distribution by naturally norming in the spirit of the classical Law of Iterated Logarithm. Key words: Martingales, exponential estimations,…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-01-15 E. Ostrovsky , L. Sirota

We study the height and width of a Galton--Watson tree with offspring distribution B satisfying E(B)=1, 0 < Var(B) < infinity, conditioned on having exactly n nodes. Under this conditioning, we derive sub-Gaussian tail bounds for both the…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-22 Louigi Addario-Berry , Luc Devroye , Svante Janson

An alternate form for the binomial tail is presented, which leads to a variety of bounds for the central tail. A few can be weakened into the corresponding Chernoff and Slud bounds, which not only demonstrates the quality of the presented…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-04-07 Matus Telgarsky

We consider upper exponential bounds for the probability of the event that an absolute deviation of sample mean from mathematical expectation p is bigger comparing with some ordered level epsilon. These bounds include 2 coefficients {alpha,…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-04-13 Vladimir Nikulin

We study the asymptotic probability that a random walk with heavy-tailed increments crosses a high boundary on a random time interval. We use new techniques to extend results of Asmussen [Ann. Appl. Probab. 8 (1998) 354-374] to completely…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-11-29 Sergey Foss , Zbigniew Palmowski , Stan Zachary

This paper develops upper and lower bounds for the probability of Boolean functions by treating multiple occurrences of variables as independent and assigning them new individual probabilities. We call this approach dissociation and give an…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-06-30 Wolfgang Gatterbauer , Dan Suciu

In this paper, we introduce the concept of hyperbolic valued random variables, their expectation and moments. We develop the hyperbolic analogue of Binomial and Poisson distributions. We study some of the properties of expectation on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-03-28 Romesh Kumar , Kailash Sharma

We prove non-asymptotic stretched exponential tail bounds on the height of a randomly sampled node in a random combinatorial tree, which we use to prove bounds on the heights and widths of random trees from a variety of models. Our results…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-04-26 Louigi Addario-Berry , Anna Brandenberger , Jad Hamdan , Céline Kerriou

The probability that the sum of independent, centered, identically distributed, heavy-tailed random variables achieves a very large value is asymptotically equal to the probability that there exists a single summand equalling that value. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-02-15 Quirin Vogel

Let $(S_0,S_1,...)$ be a supermartingale relative to a nondecreasing sequence of $\sigma$-algebras $H_{\le0},H_{\le1},...$, with $S_0\le0$ almost surely (a.s.) and differences $X_i:=S_i-S_{i-1}$. Suppose that $X_i\le d$ and $\mathsf…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Iosif Pinelis

Let $(\xi_i)_{i=1,...,n}$ be a sequence of independent and symmetric random variables. We consider the upper bounds on tail probabilities of self-normalized deviations $$ \mathbf{P} \Big( \max_{1\leq k \leq n} \sum_{i=1}^{k} |\xi_i|\big/…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-05-05 Xiequan Fan

The problem of estimating the coefficient of bivariate tail dependence is considered here from the robustness point of view; it combines two apparently contradictory theories of robust statistics and extreme value statistics. The usual…

Applications · Statistics 2014-07-08 Abhik Ghosh

In this paper, we study estimates on tail probabilities $\mathbb{P}(S_r \ge t)$ of several classes of subordinators under mild assumptions on the tail of its L\'evy measure. As an application of that result, we obtain two-sided estimates…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-05-02 Soobin Cho , Panki Kim

The tail of the distribution of a sum of a random number of independent and identically distributed nonnegative random variables depends on the tails of the number of terms and of the terms themselves. This situation is of interest in the…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-12-10 Christian Y. Robert , Johan Segers

The Peaks Over Threshold (POT) method is the most popular statistical method for the analysis of univariate extremes. Even though there is a rich applied literature on Bayesian inference for the POT, the asymptotic theory for such proposals…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-01 Clément Dombry , Simone A. Padoan , Stefano Rizzelli

Let $X$ be an $n\times n$ symmetric random matrix with independent but non-identically distributed entries. The deviation inequalities of the spectral norm of $X$ with Gaussian entries have been obtained by using the standard concentration…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-22 Guozheng Dai , Zhonggen Su , Hanchao Wang

This work prepares new probability bounds for sums of random, independent, Hermitian tensors. These probability bounds characterize large-deviation behavior of the extreme eigenvalue of the sums of random tensors. We extend Lapalace…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-01 Shih Yu Chang

A novel, non-trivial, probabilistic upper bound on the entropy of an unknown one-dimensional distribution, given the support of the distribution and a sample from that distribution, is presented. No knowledge beyond the support of the…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2007-07-13 Joseph DeStefano , Erik Learned-Miller