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We consider finite state space stationary hidden Markov models (HMMs) in the situation where the number of hidden states is unknown. We provide a frequentist asymptotic evaluation of Bayesian analysis methods. Our main result gives…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-10-27 Elisabeth Gassiat , Judith Rousseau

Hidden Markov models and their variants are the predominant sequential classification method in such domains as speech recognition, bioinformatics and natural language processing. Being generative rather than discriminative models, however,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-02-18 John A. Quinn , Masashi Sugiyama

The Baum-Welsh algorithm together with its derivatives and variations has been the main technique for learning Hidden Markov Models (HMM) from observational data. We present an HMM learning algorithm based on the non-negative matrix…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2011-01-11 George Cybenko , Valentino Crespi

Hidden semi-Markov Models (HSMM's) - while broadly in use - are restricted to a discrete and uniform time grid. They are thus not well suited to explain often irregularly spaced discrete event data from continuous-time phenomena. We show…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-18 Nicolai Engelmann , Heinz Koeppl

In this paper, we introduce a new estimator for the emission densities of a nonparametric hidden Markov model. It is adaptive and minimax with respect to each state's regularity--as opposed to globally minimax estimators, which adapt to the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-17 Luc Lehéricy

In this paper, we explore the class of the Hidden Semi-Markov Model (HSMM), a flexible extension of the popular Hidden Markov Model (HMM) that allows the underlying stochastic process to be a semi-Markov chain. HSMMs are typically used less…

Applications · Statistics 2023-01-26 Patrick Aschermayr , Konstantinos Kalogeropoulos

This paper is concerned with the computational complexity of learning the Hidden Markov Model (HMM). Although HMMs are some of the most widely used tools in sequential and time series modeling, they are cryptographically hard to learn in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-27 Sham M. Kakade , Akshay Krishnamurthy , Gaurav Mahajan , Cyril Zhang

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) offer a robust and efficient framework for analyzing time series data, modelling both the underlying latent state progression over time and the observation process, conditional on the latent state. However, a…

Applications · Statistics 2024-07-19 Ioannis Rotous , Alex Diana , Alessio Farcomeni , Eleni Matechou , Andréa Thiebault

For multivariate time series driven by underlying states, hidden Markov models (HMMs) constitute a powerful framework which can be flexibly tailored to the situation at hand. However, in practice it can be challenging to choose an adequate…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-14 Rouven Michels , Roland Langrock

There is much interest in the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) as a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the traditional HMM. However, in many settings the HDP-HMM's strict Markovian constraints are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-03-19 Matthew J. Johnson , Alan Willsky

We consider Markov models of stochastic processes where the next-step conditional distribution is defined by a kernel density estimator (KDE), similar to Markov forecast densities and certain time-series bootstrap schemes. The KDE Markov…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-31 Gustav Eje Henter , Arne Leijon , W. Bastiaan Kleijn

Hidden Markov Model (HMM) combined with Gaussian Process (GP) emission can be effectively used to estimate the hidden state with a sequence of complex input-output relational observations. Especially when the spectral mixture (SM) kernel is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-08 Yohan Jung , Jinkyoo Park

We present a novel approach for learning an HMM whose outputs are distributed according to a parametric family. This is done by {\em decoupling} the learning task into two steps: first estimating the output parameters, and then estimating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-02-26 Aryeh Kontorovich , Boaz Nadler , Roi Weiss

We develop a latent variable model and an efficient spectral algorithm motivated by the recent emergence of very large data sets of chromatin marks from multiple human cell types. A natural model for chromatin data in one cell type is a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-09 Chicheng Zhang , Jimin Song , Kevin C Chen , Kamalika Chaudhuri

We consider learning parameters of Binomial Hidden Markov Models, which may be used to model DNA methylation data. The standard algorithm for the problem is EM, which is computationally expensive for sequences of the scale of the mammalian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-02-08 Chicheng Zhang , Eran A. Mukamel , Kamalika Chaudhuri

In this paper, we prove that finite state space non parametric hidden Markov models are identifiable as soon as the transition matrix of the latent Markov chain has full rank and the emission probability distributions are linearly…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-06-20 Elisabeth Gassiat , Alice Cleynen , Stéphane Robin

In this letter we borrow from the inference techniques developed for unbounded state-cardinality (nonparametric) variants of the HMM and use them to develop a tuning-parameter free, black-box inference procedure for Explicit-state-duration…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-04 Michael Dewar , Chris Wiggins , Frank Wood

Searches for persistent gravitational radiation from nonpulsating neutron stars in young supernova remnants (SNRs) are computationally challenging because of rapid stellar braking. We describe a practical, efficient, semi-coherent search…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2018-02-28 L. Sun , A. Melatos , S. Suvorova , W. Moran , R. J. Evans

The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is one of the most widely used statistical models for sequential data analysis. One of the key reasons for this versatility is the ability of HMM to deal with missing data. However, standard HMM learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-04 Binyamin Perets , Mark Kozdoba , Shie Mannor

We demonstrate the application of pattern recognition algorithms via hidden Markov models (HMM) for qubit readout. This scheme provides a state-path trajectory approach capable of detecting qubit state transitions and makes for a robust…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-01-04 Luis A. Martinez , Yaniv J. Rosen , Jonathan L. DuBois