Related papers: Weather instabilities as a warning sign for a near…
We discuss the non-equilibrium critical phenomena in liquids, and the models for these phenomena based on local equilibrium and extended scaling assumptions. Special situations are proposed for experimental tests of the theory.…
The paper is focused on the discussion of the phenomenon of transitional chaos in dynamic autonomous and non-autonomous systems. This phenomenon involves the disappearance of chaotic oscillations in specific time periods and the system…
Numerical climate models are used to project future climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. Differences between projections from different climate models are a major source of uncertainty about future climate. Emergent…
We consider instabilities of a single mode with finite wavenumber in inversion symmetric spatially one dimensional systems, where the character of the bifurcation changes from sub- to supercritical behaviour. Starting from a general…
On the phase diagram of a system undergoing a continuous phase transition of the second order, three lines, hyper-surfaces, convergent into the critical point feature prominently: the ordered and disordered phases in the thermodynamic…
Representing and quantifying uncertainty in physical parameterisations is a central challenge in weather and climate modelling, and approaches are often developed separately for different timescales. Here, we introduce a unified framework…
In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, the extreme weather events triggering the variability in Arctic ice cover has drawn increasing attention. A non-Gaussian $\alpha$-stable L\'evy process is thought to be an appropriate…
Multi-model ensembles provide a pragmatic approach to the representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction. However, such representations are inherently ad hoc, and, as shown, probability distributions of climate variables based on…
In order to investigate the evolutionary process of many deterministic Dynamical systems with unfixed parameter, a set of dynamical models with parameter changing continuously and the accumulation of this change might be large is introduced…
Critical transitions occur in a variety of dynamical systems. Here, we employ quantifiers of chaos to identify changes in the dynamical structure of complex systems preceding critical transitions. As suitable indicator variables for…
Stochastic motion of particles in a highly unstable potential generates a number of diverging trajectories leading to undefined statistical moments of the particle position. This makes experiments challenging and breaks down a standard…
We theoretically study divergent fluctuations of dynamical events at non-ergodic transitions. We first focus on the finding that a non-ergodic transition can be described as a saddle connection bifurcation of an order parameter for a time…
Linear stability analysis currently fails to predict turbulence transition in canonical viscous flows. We show that two alternative models of the boundary condition for incipient perturbations at solid walls produce linear instabilities…
Many complex networks are known to exhibit sudden transitions between alternative steady states with contrasting properties. Such a sudden transition demonstrates a network's resilience, which is the ability of a system to persist in the…
Climate models indicate a possible collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) even for moderate climate change scenarios. There is considerable uncertainty in its likelihood for a given scenario and the critical…
Maintaining stability in feedback systems, from aircraft and autonomous robots to biological and physiological systems, relies on monitoring their behavior and continuously adjusting their inputs. Incremental damage can make such control…
Tipping points (TP) in climate sub-systems are usually thought to occur at a well-defined, critical forcing parameter threshold, via destabilization of the system state by a single, dominant positive feedback. However, coupling to other…
Nonlinear systems with model uncertainty are often described by stochastic differential equations. Some techniques from random dynamical systems are discussed. They are relevant to better understanding of solution processes of stochastic…
Periodic and semi periodic patterns are very common in nature. In this paper we introduce a topological toolbox aiming in detecting and quantifying periodicity. The presented technique is of a general nature and may be employed wherever…
Catastrophes of all kinds can be roughly defined as short duration-large amplitude events following and followed by long periods of "ripening". Major earthquakes surely belong to the class of 'catastrophic' events. Because of the space-time…