English
Related papers

Related papers: Copula-Based Univariate Time Series Structural Shi…

200 papers

Visualization and assessment of copula structures are crucial for accurately understanding and modeling the dependencies in multivariate data analysis. In this paper, we introduce an innovative method that employs functional boxplots and…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-19 Cristian F. Jimenez-Varon , Hao Lee , Marc G. Genton , Ying Sun

Structural causal models postulate noisy functional relations among a set of interacting variables. The causal structure underlying each such model is naturally represented by a directed graph whose edges indicate for each variable which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-15 David Strieder , Tobias Freidling , Stefan Haffner , Mathias Drton

This paper provides a simple, yet reliable, alternative to the (Bayesian) estimation of large multivariate VARs with time variation in the conditional mean equations and/or in the covariance structure. With our new methodology, the original…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-01-01 Mike Tsionas , Marwan Izzeldin , Lorenzo Trapani

We develop factor copula models for analysing the dependence among mixed continuous and discrete responses. Factor copula models are canonical vine copulas that involve both observed and latent variables, hence they allow tail, asymmetric…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-18 Sayed H. Kadhem , Aristidis K. Nikoloulopoulos

In this work we study the problem of constructing stochastic processes with a predetermined covariance decay by parameterizing its marginals and a given family of copulas. We show that the proposed methodology is compatibility-free and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-01 Guilherme Pumi , Sílvia R. C. Lopes

We discuss the so-called "simplifying assumption" of conditional copulas in a general framework. We introduce several tests of the latter assumption for non- and semiparametric copula models. Some related test procedures based on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-05-05 Alexis Derumigny , Jean-David Fermanian

We propose pair copula constructed point-optimal sign tests in the context of linear and nonlinear predictive regressions with endogenous, persistent regressors, and disturbances exhibiting serial (nonlinear) dependence. The proposed…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-11-10 Kaveh Salehzadeh Nobari

Prior elicitation methods for Bayesian analyses transfigure prior information into quantifiable prior distributions. Recently, methods that leverage copulas have been proposed to accommodate more flexible dependence structures when…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-22 Luke Hagar , Nathaniel T. Stevens

We propose a new multivariate dependency measure. It is obtained by considering a Gaussian kernel based distance between the copula transform of the given d-dimensional distribution and the uniform copula and then appropriately normalizing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-12 Angshuman Roy , Alok Goswami , C. A. Murthy

Causal analyses of longitudinal data generally assume that the qualitative causal structure relating variables remains invariant over time. In structured systems that transition between qualitatively different states in discrete time steps,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-11 Ranjani Srinivasan , Jaron Lee , Rohit Bhattacharya , Narges Ahmidi , Ilya Shpitser

This paper proposes a regression tree procedure to estimate conditional copulas. The associated algorithm determines classes of observations based on covariate values and fits a simple parametric copula model on each class. The association…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-03-20 Francesco Bonacina , Olivier Lopez , Maud Thomas

Statistical differentiability of the measure along the reconstructed trajectory is a good candidate to quantify determinism in time series. The procedure is based upon a formula that explicitly shows the sensitivity of the measure to…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-10-31 Guillermo J. Ortega , Enrique Louis

Parametric copula families have been known to flexibly capture various dependence patterns, e.g., either positive or negative dependence in either the lower or upper tails of bivariate distributions. In this paper, our objective is to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-11 Ruyi Pan , Luis E. Nieto-Barajas , Radu Craiu

Motivated by the development and deployment of large-scale dynamical systems, often composed of geographically distributed smaller subsystems, we address the problem of verifying their controllability in a distributed manner. In this work…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-06-19 Joao Carvalho , Sergio Pequito , A. Pedro Aguiar , Soummya Kar , Karl H. Johansson

Causal discovery in time series is a rapidly evolving field with a wide variety of applications in other areas such as climate science and neuroscience. Traditional approaches assume a stationary causal graph, which can be adapted to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-26 Carles Balsells-Rodas , Yixin Wang , Pedro A. M. Mediano , Yingzhen Li

In observational studies, treatment may be adapted to covariates at several times without a fixed protocol, in continuous time. Treatment influences covariates, which influence treatment, which influences covariates, and so on. Then even…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-09-02 Judith J. Lok

Real-world problems, for example in climate applications, often require causal reasoning on spatially gridded time series data or data with comparable structure. While the underlying system is often believed to behave similarly at different…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-16 Martin Rabel , Jakob Runge

We develop a general variational inference method that preserves dependency among the latent variables. Our method uses copulas to augment the families of distributions used in mean-field and structured approximations. Copulas model the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-11-03 Dustin Tran , David M. Blei , Edoardo M. Airoldi

We demonstrate how the uncertainty of parameter point estimates can be assessed in a maximum likelihood framework in order to prevent overfitting and erroneous detection of time-inhomogeneity. The class of models we consider are regular…

Computation · Statistics 2012-05-23 Jakob Stöber , Ulf Schepsmeier

The empirical copula process, a fundamental tool for copula inference, is studied in the high dimensional regime where the dimension is allowed to grow to infinity exponentially in the sample size. Under natural, weak smoothness assumptions…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-25 Axel Bücher , Cambyse Pakzad