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At high levels, the asymptotic distribution of a stationary, regularly varying Markov chain is conveniently given by its tail process. The latter takes the form of a geometric random walk, the increment distribution depending on the sign of…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-11 Holger Drees , Johan Segers , Michał Warchoł

In the present paper, we consider a class of Markov processes on the discrete circle which has been introduced by K\"onig, O'Connell and Roch. These processes describe movements of exchangeable interacting particles and are discrete…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-01 Anna Ben-Hamou , Pierre Tarrago

We focus in this text on the adaptation to the study of shuffles of the main combinatorial tool in the theory of free Lie algebras, namely the existence of a universal algebra of endomorphisms for tensor and other cocommutative Hopf…

Rings and Algebras · Mathematics 2012-05-15 Loïc Foissy , Frédéric Patras

This paper is a survey of various proofs of the so called {\em fundamental theorem of Markov chains}: every ergodic Markov chain has a unique positive stationary distribution and the chain attains this distribution in the limit independent…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-04-05 Somenath Biswas

Consider a system of \(n\) players in which each initially starts on a different team. At each time step, we select an individual winner and an individual loser randomly and the loser joins the winner's team. The resulting Markov chain and…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-01-15 Robert Mena , Will Murray

Since 1997 a considerable effort has been spent to study the mixing time of switch Markov chains on the realizations of graphic degree sequences of simple graphs. Several results were proved on rapidly mixing Markov chains on unconstrained,…

Consider the coradical filtrations of the Hopf algebras of planar binary trees of Loday and Ronco and of permutations of Malvenuto and Reutenauer. We give explicit isomorphisms showing that the associated graded Hopf algebras are dual to…

Quantum Algebra · Mathematics 2010-03-29 Marcelo Aguiar , Frank Sottile

This simple note lays out a few observations which are well known in many ways but may not have been said in quite this way before. The basic idea is that when comparing two different Markov chains it is useful to couple them is such a way…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-11-16 James E. Johndrow , Jonathan C. Mattingly

It was recently shown that the renormalization of quantum field theory is organized by the Hopf algebra of decorated rooted trees, whose coproduct identifies the divergences requiring subtraction and whose antipode achieves this. We…

High Energy Physics - Theory · Physics 2007-05-23 D. J. Broadhurst , D. Kreimer

We propose an exact technique to calculate lower bounds of spectral gaps of discrete time reversible Markov chains on finite state sets. Spectral gaps are a common tool for evaluating convergence rates of Markov chains. As an illustration,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-08-31 N. Destainville

We consider the problem of defining and fitting models of autoregressive time series of probability distributions on a compact interval of $\mathbb{R}$. An order-$1$ autoregressive model in this context is to be understood as a Markov…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-17 Laya Ghodrati , Victor M. Panaretos

We consider the problem of uniformly generating a spanning tree, of a connected undirected graph. This process is useful to compute statistics, namely for phylogenetic trees. We describe a Markov chain for producing these trees. For cycle…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2020-07-08 Luís M. S. Russo , Andreia Sofia Teixeira , Alexandre P Francisco

Predictive constructions are a powerful way of characterizing the probability law of stochastic processes with certain forms of invariance, such as exchangeability or Markov exchangeability. When de Finetti-like representation theorems are…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-11-16 Sandra Fortini , Sonia Petrone

A finite ergodic Markov chain is said to exhibit cutoff if its distance to stationarity remains close to 1 over a certain number of iterations and then abruptly drops to near 0 on a much shorter time scale. Discovered in the context of card…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-04-10 Anna Ben-Hamou , Justin Salez

Conformal prediction is a widely used method to quantify the uncertainty of a classifier under the assumption of exchangeability (e.g., IID data). We generalize conformal prediction to the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) framework where the…

Full Bayesian computational inference for model determination in undirected graphical models is currently restricted to decomposable graphs, except for problems of very small scale. In this paper we develop new, more efficient methodology…

Computation · Statistics 2012-06-05 Peter J. Green , Alun Thomas

The expectation of the descent number of a random Young tableau of a fixed shape is given, and concentration around the mean is shown. This result is generalized to the major index and to other descent functions. The proof combines…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Ron M. Adin , Yuval Roichman

We introduce a new Hopf algebra that operates on pairs of finite interval partitions and permutations of equal length. This algebra captures vincular patterns, which involve specifying both the permutation patterns and the consecutive…

Rings and Algebras · Mathematics 2023-07-03 Joscha Diehl , Emanuele Verri

We extend Hoeffding's lemma to general-state-space and not necessarily reversible Markov chains. Let $\{X_i\}_{i \ge 1}$ be a stationary Markov chain with invariant measure $\pi$ and absolute spectral gap $1-\lambda$, where $\lambda$ is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-19 Jianqing Fan , Bai Jiang , Qiang Sun

The basic question in perturbation analysis of Markov chains is: how do small changes in the transition kernels of Markov chains translate to chains in their stationary distributions? Many papers on the subject have shown, roughly, that the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-13 Na Lin , Yuanyuan Liu , Aaron Smith