Related papers: Grouped functional time series forecasting: An app…

We introduce a compositional power transformation, known as an {\alpha}-transformation, to model and forecast a time series of life-table death counts, possibly with zero counts observed at older ages. As a generalisation of the isometric…

Survival analysis serves as a fundamental component in numerous healthcare applications, where the determination of the time to specific events (such as the onset of a certain disease or death) for patients is crucial for clinical…

The Cox proportional hazards model is routinely used to analyze time-to-event data. To use this model requires the definition of a unique well-defined time scale. Most often, observation time is used as the time scale for both clinical and…

Excess mortality, i.e. the difference between expected and observed mortality, is used to quantify the death toll of mortality shocks, such as infectious disease-related epidemics and pandemics. However, predictions of expected mortality…

With large quantities of data typically available nowadays, forecasting models that are trained across sets of time series, known as Global Forecasting Models (GFM), are regularly outperforming traditional univariate forecasting models that…

Existing datasets available to address crucial problems, such as child mortality and family planning discontinuation in developing countries, are not ample for data-driven approaches. This is partly due to disjoint data collection efforts…

In this paper, we propose a machine learning approach for forecasting hierarchical time series. When dealing with hierarchical time series, apart from generating accurate forecasts, one needs to select a suitable method for producing…

Accurately predicting chronological age from DNA methylation patterns is crucial for advancing biological age estimation. However, this task is made challenging by Epigenetic Correlation Drift (ECD) and Heterogeneity Among CpGs (HAC), which…

The process of integration of inputs from several sensory modalities in the human brain is referred to as multisensory integration. Age-related cognitive decline leads to a loss in the ability of the brain to conceive multisensory inputs.…

In a recent article in PNAS, Case and Deaton show a figure illustrating "a marked increase in the all-cause mortality of middle-aged white non-Hispanic men and women in the United States between 1999 and 2013." The authors state that their…

There has been growing interest on forecasting mortality. In this article, we propose a novel dynamic Bayesian approach for modeling and forecasting the age-at-death distribution, focusing on a three-components mixture of a Dirac mass, a…

Cohort effects are important factors in determining the evolution of human mortality for certain countries. Extensions of dynamic mortality models with cohort features have been proposed in the literature to account for these factors under…

Methods for forecasting time series adhering to linear constraints have seen notable development in recent years, especially with the advent of forecast reconciliation. This paper extends forecast reconciliation to the open question of…

This paper considers the problem of forecasting mortality rates. A large number of models have already been proposed for this task, but they generally have the disadvantage of either estimating the model in a two-step process, possibly…

A new forecasting method based on the concept of the profile predictive the likelihood function is proposed for discrete-valued processes. In particular, generalized autoregressive and moving average (GARMA) models for Poisson distributed…

Univariate time series often take the form of a collection of curves observed sequentially over time. Examples of these include hourly ground-level ozone concentration curves. These curves can be viewed as a time series of functions…

Age dependent performance disparities in medical image classification often arise because age acts as a confounder, linking imaging morphology with disease prevalence. In practice, disparities can manifest as overdiagnosis at ages where…

Physical activity is crucial for human health. With the increasing availability of large-scale mobile health data, strong associations have been found between physical activity and various diseases. However, accurately capturing this…

The decrease in the increase in death rates at old ages is a phenomenon that has repeatedly been discussed in demographic research. While mortality deceleration can be explained in the gamma-Gompertz model as an effect of selection in…

Particulate matter data now include various particle sizes, which often manifest as a collection of curves observed sequentially over time. When considering 51 distinct particle sizes, these curves form a high-dimensional functional time…