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We study model evaluation and model selection from the perspective of generalization ability (GA): the ability of a model to predict outcomes in new samples from the same population. We believe that GA is one way formally to address…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-10-19 Ning Xu , Jian Hong , Timothy C. G. Fisher

Recent studies show that transformer-based architectures emulate gradient descent during a forward pass, contributing to in-context learning capabilities - an ability where the model adapts to new tasks based on a sequence of prompt…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-13 Karthik Duraisamy

Our main focus is on the generalization bound, which serves as an upper limit for the generalization error. Our analysis delves into regression and classification tasks separately to ensure a thorough examination. We assume the target…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-30 Wen-Liang Hwang

We discuss the prediction accuracy of assumed statistical models in terms of prediction errors for the generalized linear model and penalized maximum likelihood methods. We derive the forms of estimators for the prediction errors, such as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-22 Ayaka Sakata

This work performs a non-asymptotic analysis of the generalized Lasso under the assumption of sub-exponential data. Our main results continue recent research on the benchmark case of (sub-)Gaussian sample distributions and thereby explore…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-18 Martin Genzel , Christian Kipp

Penalization schemes like Lasso or ridge regression are routinely used to regress a response of interest on a high-dimensional set of potential predictors. Despite being decisive, the question of the relative strength of penalization is…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-11-08 Britta Velten , Wolfgang Huber

We study a high-dimensional generalized linear model and penalized empirical risk minimization with $\ell_1$ penalty. Our aim is to provide a non-trivial illustration that non-asymptotic bounds for the estimator can be obtained without…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-09-12 Sara A. van de Geer

Research on generalization bounds for deep networks seeks to give ways to predict test error using just the training dataset and the network parameters. While generalization bounds can give many insights about architecture design, training…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-21 Yi Zhang , Arushi Gupta , Nikunj Saunshi , Sanjeev Arora

We derive new and improved non-asymptotic deviation inequalities for the sample average approximation (SAA) of an optimization problem. Our results give strong error probability bounds that are "sub-Gaussian"~even when the randomness of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-03-28 Roberto I. Oliveira , Philip Thompson

This note examines the behavior of generalization capabilities - as defined by out-of-sample mean squared error (MSE) - of Linear Gaussian (with a fixed design matrix) and Linear Least Squares regression. Particularly, we consider a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-09-21 Karthik Duraisamy

Many algorithms have been recently proposed for causal machine learning. Yet, there is little to no theory on their quality, especially considering finite samples. In this work, we propose a theory based on generalization bounds that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-16 Daniel Csillag , Claudio José Struchiner , Guilherme Tegoni Goedert

The goal of machine learning is to find models that minimize prediction error on data that has not yet been seen. Its operational paradigm assumes access to a dataset $S$ and articulates a scheme for evaluating how well a given model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-22 Maxim Raginsky , Benjamin Recht

The ability to predict an NLP model's accuracy on unseen, potentially out-of-distribution data is a prerequisite for trustworthiness. We present a novel model that establishes upper and lower bounds on the accuracy, without requiring gold…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-22 Yuekun Yao , Alexander Koller

A growing statistical literature focuses on causal inference in the context of experiments where the target of inference is the average treatment effect in a finite population and random assignment determines which subjects are allocated to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-04 Jonas M. Mikhaeil , Donald P. Green

The purpose of this article is to develop a general parametric estimation theory that allows the derivation of the limit distribution of estimators in non-regular models where the true parameter value may lie on the boundary of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-28 Junichiro Yoshida , Nakahiro Yoshida

For many applications, an ensemble of base classifiers is an effective solution. The tuning of its parameters(number of classes, amount of data on which each classifier is to be trained on, etc.) requires G, the generalization error of a…

Thompson Sampling, one of the oldest heuristics for solving multi-armed bandits, has recently been shown to demonstrate state-of-the-art performance. The empirical success has led to great interests in theoretical understanding of this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-10-29 Lihong Li

In this paper we present a series of results that permit to extend in a direct manner uniform deviation inequalities of the empirical process from the independent to the dependent case characterizing the additional error in terms of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-08-03 David Barrera , Emmanuel Gobet

In this paper, we provide finite sample results to assess the consistency of Generalized Pareto regression trees, as tools to perform extreme value regression. The results that we provide are obtained from concentration inequalities, and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-21 Sébastien Farkas , Antoine Heranval , Olivier Lopez , Maud Thomas

Modern regression problems often involve high-dimensional data and a careful tuning of the regularization hyperparameters is crucial to avoid overly complex models that may overfit the training data while guaranteeing desirable properties…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-08 Maria-Florina Balcan , Saumya Goyal , Dravyansh Sharma
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