Related papers: Importance sampling of heavy-tailed iterated rando…

Let $p>2$, $B\geq 1$, $N\geq n$ and let $X$ be a centered $n$-dimensional random vector with the identity covariance matrix such that $\sup\limits_{a\in S^{n-1}}{\mathrm E}|\langle X,a\rangle|^p\leq B$. Further, let $X_1,X_2,\dots,X_N$ be…

We propose a stochastic process driven by the memory effect with novel distributions which include both exponential and leptokurtic heavy-tailed distributions. A class of the distributions is analytically derived from the continuum limit of…

For a class of stationary Markov-dependent sequences $(A_n,B_n)\in\mathbb{R}^2,$ we consider the random linear recursion $S_n=A_n+B_nS_{n-1},$ $n\in\mathbb{Z},$ and show that the distribution tail of its stationary solution has a power law…

We consider a strictly substochastic matrix or an stochastic matrix with absorbing states. By using quasi-stationary distributions one shows there is a canonical associated stationary Markov chain. Based upon $2-$stringing representation of…

In this paper, the recurrent events that can occur more than one over the follow-up time have been modeled by phase-type distributions. We use the finite-state continuous-time Markov process with multi states for patients with recurrent…

Recent likelihood theory produces $p$-values that have remarkable accuracy and wide applicability. The calculations use familiar tools such as maximum likelihood values (MLEs), observed information and parameter rescaling. The usual…

Stochastic volatility processes with heavy-tailed innovations are a well-known model for financial time series. In these models, the extremes of the log returns are mainly driven by the extremes of the i.i.d. innovation sequence which leads…

Let $\{X_i\}$ be a sequence of independent identically distributed random variables with an intermediate regularly varying (IR) right tail $\bar{F}$. Let $(N, C_1, ..., C_N)$ be a nonnegative random vector independent of the $\{X_i\}$ with…

Let us consider a homogeneous Markov chain with discrete time and with a finite set of states $E_0,\ldots,E_n$ such that the state $E_0$ is absorbing, states $E_1,\ldots,E_n$ are nonrecurrent. The goal of this work is to study frequencies…

This paper is about the rate of convergence of the Markov chain $X_{n+1}=AX_{n}+B_{n}$ (mod $p$), where $A$ is an integer matrix with nonzero eigenvalues and ${B_{n}}_{n}$ is a sequence of independent and identically distributed integer…

This paper presents a stochastic approach to theorems concerning the behavior of iterations of the Bernstein operator $B_n$ taking a continuous function $f \in C[0,1]$ to a degree-$n$ polynomial when the number of iterations $k$ tends to…

Non-Markovian models have great expressive power, at the cost of complex analysis of the stochastic process. The method of Stochastic State Classes (SSCs) derives closed-form analytical expressions for the joint Probability Density…

In this article we show how ideas, methods and results from optimal transportation can be used to study various aspects of the stationary measuresof Iterated Function Systems equipped with a probability distribution. We recover a classical…

We explore two notions of stationary processes. The first is called a random-step Markov process in which the stationary process of states, $(X_i)_{i \in \mathbb{Z}}$ has a stationary coupling with an independent process on the positive…

Probabilistic models in physics often require from the evaluation of normalized Boltzmann factors, which in turn implies the computation of the partition function Z. Getting the exact value of Z, though, becomes a forbiddingly expensive…

The estimation of the probability of rare events is an important task in reliability and risk assessment. We consider failure events that are expressed in terms of a limit state function, which depends on the solution of a partial…

For a class of additive processes driven by the affine recursion $X_{n+1} = A_n X_n + B_n$, we develop a sample-path large deviations principle in the $M_1'$ topology on $D [0,1]$. We allow $B_n$ to have both signs and focus on the case…

We present a complete framework for determining the asymptotic (or logarithmic) efficiency of estimators of large deviation probabilities and rate functions based on importance sampling. The framework relies on the idea that importance…

We consider binary infinite order stochastic chains perturbed by a random noise. This means that at each time step, the value assumed by the chain can be randomly and independently flipped with a small fixed probability. We show that the…

A new class of integer-valued autoregressive models with dynamic survival probability is proposed. The peculiarity of this class of models lies on the specification of the survival probability through a stochastic recurrence equation. The…