Related papers: Uncertainty quantification for generalized Langevi…

The article focuses on determining the predictive uncertainty of a model on the example of atrial fibrillation detection problem by a single-lead ECG signal. To this end, the model predicts parameters of the beta distribution over class…

Precisely estimating out-of-sample upper quantiles is very important in risk assessment and in engineering practice for structural design to prevent a greater disaster. For this purpose, the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution has…

Computing cross-partial derivatives using fewer model runs is relevant in modeling, such as stochastic approximation, derivative-based ANOVA, exploring complex models, and active subspaces. This paper introduces surrogates of all the…

Time-varying linear state-space models are powerful tools for obtaining mathematically interpretable representations of neural signals. For example, switching and decomposed models describe complex systems using latent variables that evolve…

The gradient discretisation method (GDM) is a generic framework designed recently, as a discretise in spatial space, to partial differential equations. This paper aims to use the GDM to establish a first general error estimate for numerical…

In this paper we propose a generalization of a class of Gaussian Semiparametric Estimators (GSE) of the fractional differencing parameter for long-range dependent multivariate time series. We generalize a known GSE-type estimator by…

The scalability of Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) for large-scale, high-dimensional data often forces a trade-off between computational feasibility and statistical accuracy, particularly for inference on pre-specified parameters. While…

In many fields of science, generalized likelihood ratio tests are established tools for statistical inference. At the same time, it has become increasingly common that a simulator (or generative model) is used to describe complex processes…

A general class of models is proposed that is able to estimate the whole predictive distribution of a dependent variable $Y$ given a vector of explanatory variables $\xb$. The models exploit that the strength of explanatory variables to…

We consider the generalized Langevin equation (GLE) in a harmonic potential with power law decay memory. We study the anomalous diffusion of the particle's displacement and velocity. By comparison with the free particle situation in which…

In many applications we seek to maximize an expectation with respect to a distribution over discrete variables. Estimating gradients of such objectives with respect to the distribution parameters is a challenging problem. We analyze…

Propensity score methods have been shown to be powerful in obtaining efficient estimators of average treatment effect (ATE) from observational data, especially under the existence of confounding factors. When estimating, deciding which type…

Accurate estimates of long-term risk probabilities and their gradients are critical for many stochastic safe control methods. However, computing such risk probabilities in real-time and in unseen or changing environments is challenging.…

We propose a novel method for sampling from unnormalized Boltzmann densities based on a probability flow ordinary differential equation (ODE) derived from linear stochastic interpolants. The key innovation of our approach is the use of a…

Unsupervised feature selection is an important method to reduce dimensions of high dimensional data without labels, which is benefit to avoid ``curse of dimensionality'' and improve the performance of subsequent machine learning tasks, like…

Latent variable models are crucial in scientific research, where a key variable, such as effort, ability, and belief, is unobserved in the sample but needs to be identified. This paper proposes a novel method for estimating realizations of…

The classical Langevin Monte Carlo method looks for samples from a target distribution by descending the samples along the gradient of the target distribution. The method enjoys a fast convergence rate. However, the numerical cost is…

This paper develops a flexible method for decreasing the variance of estimators for complex experiment effect metrics (e.g. ratio metrics) while retaining asymptotic unbiasedness. This method uses the auxiliary information about the…

Ensemble methods have become ubiquitous for the solution of Bayesian inference problems. State-of-the-art Langevin samplers such as the Ensemble Kalman Sampler (EKS), Affine Invariant Langevin Dynamics (ALDI) or its extension using weighted…

Stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) is a computationally efficient sampler for Bayesian posterior inference given a large scale dataset. Although SGLD is designed for unbounded random variables, many practical models incorporate…