Related papers: Stochastic Tail Exponent For Asymmetric Power Laws
We study the asymptotic behavior of the marginal expected shortfall when the two random variables are asymptotic independent but positive associated, which is modeled by the so-called tail dependent coefficient. We construct an estimator of…
Treatment effects of stochastic policy shifts quantify differences in outcomes across counterfactual scenarios with varying treatment distributions. Stochastic policy shifts may be of interest in settings where it is unrealistic or…
This paper describes limiting behaviour of tail empirical process associated with long memory stochastic volatility models. We show that such process has dichotomous behaviour, according to an interplay between a Hurst parameter and a tail…
We derive new and improved non-asymptotic deviation inequalities for the sample average approximation (SAA) of an optimization problem. Our results give strong error probability bounds that are "sub-Gaussian"~even when the randomness of the…
Stochastic feedback systems give rise to a variety of notions of stability. The conditions for the stability of the median, mean, and variance stability conditions differ. These conditions can be stated explicitly for scalar discrete-time…
With latent variables, stochastic recurrent models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in modeling sound-wave sequence. However, opposite results are also observed in other domains, where standard recurrent networks often outperform…
We propose a random walk model of asset returns where the parameters depend on market stress. Stress is measured by, e.g., the value of an implied volatility index. We show that model parameters including standard deviations and…
The fluctuation scaling law has universally been observed in a wide variety of phenomena. For counting processes describing the number of events occurred during time intervals, it is expressed as a power function relationship between the…
We introduce a novel regression model for the conditional left and right tail of a possibly heavy-tailed response. The proposed model can be used to learn the effect of covariates on an extreme value setting via a Lasso-type specification…
The statistical theory of extremes is extended to observations that are non-stationary and not independent. The non-stationarity over time and space is controlled via the scedasis (tail scale) in the marginal distributions. Spatial…
Heavy-tailed or power-law distributions are becoming increasingly common in biological literature. A wide range of biological data has been fitted to distributions with heavy tails. Many of these studies use simple fitting methods to find…
The purpose of this letter is to improve Hoeffding's lemma and consequently Hoeffding's tail bounds. The improvement pertains to left skewed zero mean random variables $X\in[a,b]$, where $a<0$ and $-a>b$. The proof of Hoeffding's improved…
We revisit the problem of condensation for independent, identically distributed random variables with a power-law tail, conditioned by the value of their sum. For large values of the sum, and for a large number of summands, a condensation…
The extreme value dependence of regularly varying stationary time series can be described by the spectral tail process. Drees, Segers and Warchol [Extremes 18(3): 369--402, 2015] proposed estimators of the marginal distributions of this…
The state of a stochastic process evolving over a time $t$ is typically assumed to lie on a normal distribution whose width scales like $t^{1/2}$. However, processes where the probability distribution is not normal and the scaling exponent…
For a sequence of random variables $(X_1, X_2, \ldots, X_n)$, $n \geq 1$, that are independent and identically distributed with a regularly varying tail with index $-\alpha$, $\alpha \geq 0$, we show that the contribution of the maximum…
Power-law distributions occur in many situations of scientific interest and have significant consequences for our understanding of natural and man-made phenomena. Unfortunately, the detection and characterization of power laws is…
Heavy tailed phenomena are naturally analyzed by extreme value statistics. A crucial step in such an analysis is the estimation of the extreme value index, which describes the tail heaviness of the underlying probability distribution. We…
In a recent Nature paper, Gabaix et al. \cite{Gabaix03} presented a theory to explain the power law tail of price fluctuations. The main points of their theory are that volume fluctuations, which have a power law tail with exponent roughly…
Chebyshev's inequality provides an upper bound on the tail probability of a random variable based on its mean and variance. While tight, the inequality has been criticized for only being attained by pathological distributions that abuse the…