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We propose a multiscale approach to time series autoregression, in which linear regressors for the process in question include features of its own path that live on multiple timescales. We take these multiscale features to be the recent…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are well-known tools for modeling dependent data with applications in spatial statistics, time series analysis, or econometrics. In this article, we present the R package varycoef that implements estimation,…

Constructing a more effective value at risk (VaR) prediction model has long been a goal in financial risk management. In this paper, we propose a novel parametric approach and provide a standard paradigm to demonstrate the modeling. We…

In this article, we introduce the R package portes with extensive illustrative applications. The asymptotic distributions and the Monte Carlo procedures of the most popular univariate and multivariate portmanteau test statistics, including…

We propose NonStGM, a general nonparametric graphical modeling framework for studying dynamic associations among the components of a nonstationary multivariate time series. It builds on the framework of Gaussian Graphical Models (GGM) and…

Lithium-ion batteries are powering the ongoing transportation electrification revolution. Lithium-ion batteries possess higher energy density and favourable electrochemical properties which make it a preferable energy source for electric…

We develop an automated variational method for inference in models with Gaussian process (GP) priors and general likelihoods. The method supports multiple outputs and multiple latent functions and does not require detailed knowledge of the…

A methodology for high dimensional causal inference in a time series context is introduced. It is assumed that there is a monotonic transformation of the data such that the dynamics of the transformed variables are described by a Gaussian…

The conditional autoregressive model is a routinely used statistical model for areal data that arise from, for instances, epidemiological, socio-economic or ecological studies. Various multivariate conditional autoregressive models have…

Prediction invariance of causal models under heterogeneous settings has been exploited by a number of recent methods for causal discovery, typically focussing on recovering the causal parents of a target variable of interest. Existing…

The paper proposes a time-varying parameter global vector autoregressive (TVP-GVAR) framework for predicting and analysing developed region economic variables. We want to provide an easily accessible approach for the economy application…

Recently, several spectra have emerged, designed to encapsulate the distributional characteristics of non-Gaussian stationary processes. This article introduces parametric families of generalized spectra based on the characteristic…

The gmwm R package for inference on time series models is mainly based on the quantity called wavelet variance which is derived from a wavelet decomposition of a time series. This quantity provides a means to summarize and graphically…

Nonstationarity in spatial and spatio-temporal processes is ubiquitous in environmental datasets, but is not often addressed in practice, due to a scarcity of statistical software packages that implement nonstationary models. In this…

This paper introduces a novel approach, the bivariate generalized autoregressive (BGAR) model, for modeling and forecasting bivariate time series data. The BGAR model generalizes the bivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) models by allowing…

Generalized additive models (GAMs) provide a way to blend parametric and non-parametric (function approximation) techniques together, making them flexible tools suitable for many modeling problems. For instance, GAMs can be used to…

We present a method for the joint analysis of a panel of possibly nonstationary time series. The approach is Bayesian and uses a covariate-dependent infinite mixture model to incorporate multiple time series, with mixture components…

Autoregressive models are ubiquitous tools for the analysis of time series in many domains such as computational neuroscience and biomedical engineering. In these domains, data is, for example, collected from measurements of brain activity.…

Graphs are an intuitive way to represent relationships between variables in fields such as finance and neuroscience. However, these graphs often need to be inferred from data. In this paper, we propose a novel framework to infer a latent…

This paper proposes Fourier-based and wavelet-based techniques for analyzing periodic financial time series. Conventional models such as the periodic autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (PGARCH) and periodic autoregressive…