Related papers: Generalized Autoregressive Score Models in R: The …

Generalized autoregressive score (GAS) models are a class of observation-driven time series models that employ the score to dynamically update time-varying parameters of the underlying probability distribution. GAS models have been…

We propose methods to improve the forecasts from generalized autoregressive score (GAS) models (Creal et. al, 2013; Harvey, 2013) by localizing their parameters using decision trees and random forests. These methods avoid the curse of…

GAS models have been recently proposed in time-series econometrics as valuable tools for signal extraction and prediction. This paper details how financial risk managers can use GAS models for Value-at-Risk (VaR) prediction using the novel…

This article introduces the GNAR package, which fits, predicts, and simulates from a powerful new class of generalised network autoregressive processes. Such processes consist of a multivariate time series along with a real, or inferred,…

Score-driven models, also known as generalized autoregressive score models, represent a class of observation-driven time series models. They possess powerful properties, such as the ability to model different conditional distributions and…

Due to the skessed distribution, high peak and thick tail and asymmetry of financial return data, it is difficult to describe the traditional distribution. In recent years, generalized autoregressive score (GAS) has been used in many fields…

The R package BigVAR allows for the simultaneous estimation of high-dimensional time series by applying structured penalties to the conventional vector autoregression (VAR) and vector autoregression with exogenous variables (VARX)…

Using a proper model to characterize a time series is crucial in making accurate predictions. In this work we use time-varying autoregressive process (TVAR) to describe non-stationary time series and model it as a mixture of multiple stable…

Heteroskedasticity is a common feature of financial time series and is commonly addressed in the model building process through the use of ARCH and GARCH processes. More recently multivariate variants of these processes have been in the…

One of the important and widely used classes of models for non-Gaussian time series is the generalized autoregressive model average models (GARMA), which specifies an ARMA structure for the conditional mean process of the underlying time…

In time-series analyses, particularly for finance, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models are widely applied statistical tools for modelling volatility clusters (i.e., periods of increased or decreased…

Despite their popularity, deep neural networks (DNNs) applied to time series forecasting often fail to beat simpler statistical models. One of the main causes of this suboptimal performance is the data non-stationarity present in many…

This paper offers a new method for estimation and forecasting of the volatility of financial time series when the stationarity assumption is violated. Our general local parametric approach particularly applies to general varying-coefficient…

Multi-output regression models must exploit dependencies between outputs to maximise predictive performance. The application of Gaussian processes (GPs) to this setting typically yields models that are computationally demanding and have…

Matrix-variate time series data are largely available in applications. However, no attempt has been made to study their conditional heteroskedasticity that is often observed in economic and financial data. To address this gap, we propose a…

How best to model structurally heterogeneous processes is a foundational question in the social, health and behavioral sciences. Recently, Fisher et al., (2022) introduced the multi-VAR approach for simultaneously estimating…

This paper compares the Value--at--Risk (VaR) forecasts delivered by alternative model specifications using the Model Confidence Set (MCS) procedure recently developed by Hansen et al. (2011). The direct VaR estimate provided by the…

Generalized additive models (GAMs) play an important role in modeling and understanding complex relationships in modern applied statistics. They allow for flexible, data-driven estimation of covariate effects. Yet researchers often have a…

Multivariate GARCH models are important tools to describe the dynamics of multivariate times series of financial returns. Nevertheless, these models have been much less used in practice due to the lack of reliable software. This paper…

High-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models are important tools for the analysis of multivariate time series. This paper focuses on high-dimensional time series and on the different regularized estimation procedures proposed for…