Related papers: Multilevel Monte Carlo for Reliability Theory
We consider a class of queries called durability prediction queries that arise commonly in predictive analytics, where we use a given predictive model to answer questions about possible futures to inform our decisions. Examples of…
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) includes the characterization, integration, and propagation of uncertainties that result from stochastic variations and a lack of knowledge or data in the natural world. Monte Carlo (MC) method is a…
We propose a multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for the Bayesian inference of random field parameters in PDEs using high-resolution data. Compared to existing multilevel MCMC methods, we additionally consider level-dependent…
Multilevel sampling methods, such as multilevel and multifidelity Monte Carlo, multilevel stochastic collocation, or delayed acceptance Markov chain Monte Carlo, have become standard uncertainty quantification (UQ) tools for a wide class of…
Conditional Monte Carlo (CMC) has been widely used for sensitivity estimation with discontinuous integrands as a standard simulation technique. A major limitation of using CMC in this context is that finding conditioning variables to ensure…
We consider the computational efficiency of Monte Carlo (MC) and Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods applied to partial differential equations with random coefficients. These arise, for example, in groundwater flow modelling, where a…
An algorithm is proposed to solve robust control problems constrained by partial differential equations with uncertain coefficients, based on the so-called MG/OPT framework. The levels in this MG/OPT hierarchy correspond to discretization…
Random field Monte Carlo (MC) reliability analysis is a robust stochastic method to determine the probability of failure. This method, however, requires a large number of numerical simulations demanding high computational costs. This paper…
The multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method has proven to be an effective variance-reduction statistical method for Uncertainty quantification in PDE models. It combines approximations at different levels of accuracy using a hierarchy of…
We discuss the application of multilevel Monte Carlo methods to elliptic partial differential equations with random coefficients. Such problems arise, for example, in uncertainty quantification in subsurface flow modeling. We give a brief…
Monte Carlo (MC) sampling is a popular method for estimating the statistics (e.g. expectation and variance) of a random variable. Its slow convergence has led to the emergence of advanced techniques to reduce the variance of the MC…
In this work, we propose a smart idea to couple importance sampling and Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). We advocate a per level approach with as many importance sampling parameters as the number of levels, which enables us to compute the…
The multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for continuous-time Markov chains, first introduced by Anderson and Higham (SIAM Multiscal Model. Simul. 10(1), 2012), is a highly efficient simulation technique that can be used to estimate various…
We develop a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) framework for uncertainty quantification with Monte Carlo dropout. Treating dropout masks as a source of epistemic randomness, we define a fidelity hierarchy by the number of stochastic forward…
We apply multilevel Monte Carlo for option pricing problems using exponential L\'{e}vy models with a uniform timestep discretisation to monitor the running maximum required for lookback and barrier options. The numerical results demonstrate…
The multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method is highly efficient for estimating expectations of a functional of a solution to a stochastic differential equation (SDE). However, MLMC estimators may be unstable and have a poor (noncanonical)…
In this work, we extend the hybrid Chernoff tau-leap method to the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) setting. Inspired by the work of Anderson and Higham on the tau-leap MLMC method with uniform time steps, we develop a novel algorithm that is…
Uncertainty estimation in deep models is essential in many real-world applications and has benefited from developments over the last several years. Recent evidence suggests that existing solutions dependent on simple Gaussian formulations…
We propose a variance reduction framework for variational inference using the Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method. Our framework is built on reparameterized gradient estimators and "recycles" parameters obtained from past update history in…
Practical structural engineering problems often exhibit a significant degree of uncertainty in the material properties being used, the dimensions of the modeled structures, etc. In this paper, we consider a cantilever beam and a beam…