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We derive upper bounds for probabilities of the form $P(g(\mathbf{X})\geq t)$ using the southwest boundary (recently introduced in our previous work) $\partial_{\mathrm{SW}} Q(g^{-1}[t,\infty))$, where $Q$ is a reflection to the first…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-27 Stephen Jordan Harrison

Given an arbitrary continuous probability density function, it is introduced a conjugated probability density, which is defined through the Shannon information associated with its cumulative distribution function. These new densities are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-26 H. M. de Oliveira , R. J. Cintra

Let $Y=\sum_{k\ge 1} 1_{A_k}$ be an infinite sum of the indicators of independent events. We investigate a precise (as opposed to logarithmic) first-order asymptotic behavior of the tail probabilities $\mathbb{P}\{Y\ge n\}$ and the point…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-10 Alexander Iksanov , Valeriya Kotelnikova

In this paper, we investigate the large deviations of sums of weighted random variables that are approximately independent, generalizing and improving some of the results of Montgomery and Odlyzko. We are motivated by examples arising from…

Number Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-05 Andrew Granville , Youness Lamzouri

Since the experimental observation of the violation of the Bell-CHSH inequalities, much has been said about the non-local and contextual character of the underlying system. But the hypothesis from which Bell's inequalities are derived…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-07-09 Aldo F. G. Solis-Labastida , Melina Gastelum , Jorge G. Hirsch

An identity between two versions of the Chernoff bound on the probability a certain large deviations event, is established. This identity has an interpretation in statistical physics, namely, an isothermal equilibrium of a composite system…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2007-07-13 Neri Merhav

This article discusses modelling of the tail of a multivariate distribution function by means of a large deviation principle (LDP), and its application to the estimation of the probability of a multivariate extreme event from a sample of n…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-02-23 Cees de Valk

We present simple randomized and exchangeable improvements of Markov's inequality, as well as Chebyshev's inequality and Chernoff bounds. Our variants are never worse and typically strictly more powerful than the original inequalities. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-05-10 Aaditya Ramdas , Tudor Manole

This is Part II of our work about random tensor inequalities and tail bounds for bivariate random tensor means. After reviewing basic facts about random tensors, we first consider tail bounds with more general connection functions. Then, a…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-05-08 Shih-Yu Chang

Recently some papers, such as Aban, Meerschaert and Panorska (2006), Nuyts (2010) and Clark (2013), have drawn attention to possible truncation in Pareto tail modelling. Sometimes natural upper bounds exist that truncate the probability…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-05-21 Jan Beirlant , Isabel Fraga Alves , Ivette Gomes

Two new information-theoretic methods are introduced for establishing Poisson approximation inequalities. First, using only elementary information-theoretic techniques it is shown that, when $S_n=\sum_{i=1}^nX_i$ is the sum of the (possibly…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-10-21 Ioannis Kontoyiannis , Peter Harremoes , Oliver Johnson

We study the effect of approximation errors in assessing the extreme behavior of heavy-tailed random objects. We give conditions for the approximation error such that the standard asymptotic results hold for the classical Hill estimator and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-18 Jaakko Pere , Benny Avelin , Valentin Garino , Pauliina Ilmonen , Lauri Viitasaari

In this paper we establish a large deviations type estimate for strongly mixing Markov chains with respect to the Lp norm. As applications we derive such estimates for the iterates of a locally constant random cocycle with mixed rank, as…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-02-10 Anselmo Pontes

For a fixed unit vector a=(a_1,a_2,...,a_n) in S^{n-1}, i.e. sum_{i=1}^n a_i^2=1, we consider the 2^n sign vectors epsilon=(epsilon_1,epsilon_2,...,epsilon_n) in {-1,1}^n and the corresponding scalar products a.epsilon=sum_{i=1}^n a_i…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-10-04 Harrie Hendriks , Martien C. A. van Zuijlen

In this paper we extend the results of Lenci and Rey-Bellet on the large deviation upper bound of the distribution measures of local Hamiltonians with respect to a Gibbs state, in the setting of translation-invariant finite-range…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2009-11-13 Fumio Hiai , Milan Mosonyi , Tomohiro Ogawa

We study the asymptotic probability that a random walk with heavy-tailed increments crosses a high boundary on a random time interval. We use new techniques to extend results of Asmussen [Ann. Appl. Probab. 8 (1998) 354-374] to completely…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-11-29 Sergey Foss , Zbigniew Palmowski , Stan Zachary

The ratio $P(S_n=x)/P(Z_n=x)$ is investigated for three cases: (a) when $S_n$ is a sum of 1-dependent non-negative integer-valued random variables (rvs), satisfying some moment conditions, and $Z_n$ is Poisson rv; (b) when $S_n$ is a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-14 Vydas Čekanavičius , Palaniappan Vellaisamy

We provide a systematic approach to deal with the following problem. Let $X_1,\ldots,X_n$ be, possibly dependent, $[0,1]$-valued random variables. What is a sharp upper bound on the probability that their sum is significantly larger than…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-07-27 Christos Pelekis , Jan Ramon

This paper discusses a forgotten remark of Paul L\'evy (1935), determining the asymptotic distribution of sums of i.i.d. random variables with tails $cx^{-\alpha}\psi(\log x)$, where $0<\alpha<2$ and $\psi$ is a periodic function on…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-28 István Berkes

We consider random vectors $X$ that satisfy the equation in law $X=AX+B$, where $A$ is a given random diagonal matrix and $B$ a given random vector, both independent of $X$. It is well known by the works of Kesten and Goldie that the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-28 Ewa Damek , Sebastian Mentemeier