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The Bayes linear estimator is derived by minimizing the Bayes risk with respect to the squared loss function. Non-unbiased estimators such as ordinary ridge, typical shrinkage, fractional rank, and restricted least squares estimators, as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-15 Hirai Mukasa

It is common to show the confidence intervals or $p$-values of selected features, or predictor variables in regression, but they often involve selection bias. The selective inference approach solves this bias by conditioning on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-02 Yoshikazu Terada , Hidetoshi Shimodaira

We explore the performance of sample average approximation in comparison with several other methods for stochastic optimization when there is information available on the underlying true probability distribution. The methods we evaluate are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-22 Eddie Anderson , Harrison Nguyen

Bayesian nonparametric regression under a rescaled Gaussian process prior offers smoothness-adaptive function estimation with near minimax-optimal error rates. Hierarchical extensions of this approach, equipped with stochastic variable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-15 Sheng Jiang , Surya T. Tokdar

Bayesian optimization through Gaussian process regression is an effective method of optimizing an unknown function for which every measurement is expensive. It approximates the objective function and then recommends a new measurement point…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-05-17 Hildo Bijl , Thomas B. Schön , Jan-Willem van Wingerden , Michel Verhaegen

A Bayesian network is a widely used probabilistic graphical model with applications in knowledge discovery and prediction. Learning a Bayesian network (BN) from data can be cast as an optimization problem using the well-known…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-09-01 Zhenyu A. Liao , Charupriya Sharma , James Cussens , Peter van Beek

This work is a re-examination of the sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) of linear regression models of Tipping (2001) in a high-dimensional setting. We propose a hard-thresholded version of the SBL estimator that achieves, for orthogonal design…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-02-12 Yves Atchade , Chia Chye Yee

We consider the estimation of a regression function with random design and heteroscedastic noise in a nonparametric setting. More precisely, we address the problem of characterizing the optimal penalty when the regression function is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-29 Adrien Saumard

Let $X_1,\ldots,X_n$ be a random sample from an unknown probability distribution $P$ on the sample space ${\cal X}$, and let $\theta=\theta(P)$ be a parameter of interest. The present paper proposes a nonparametric `Bayesian bootstrap'…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-13 Nils Lid Hjort

ReRecent studies in machine learning are based on models in which parameters or state variables are bounded restricted. These restrictions are from prior information to ensure the validity of scientific theories or structural consistency…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-26 Solmaz Seifollahi , Hossein Bevrani , Kristofer Mansson

The problem of Bayesian reduced rank regression is considered in this paper. We propose, for the first time, to use Langevin Monte Carlo method in this problem. A spectral scaled Student prior distrbution is used to exploit the underlying…

Computation · Statistics 2021-02-16 The Tien Mai

Variable selection in the linear regression model takes many apparent faces from both frequentist and Bayesian standpoints. In this paper we introduce a variable selection method referred to as a rescaled spike and slab model. We study the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Hemant Ishwaran , J. Sunil Rao

Optimization is widely used in statistics, and often efficiently delivers point estimates on useful spaces involving structural constraints or combinatorial structure. To quantify uncertainty, Gibbs posterior exponentiates the negative loss…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-23 Cheng Zeng , Eleni Dilma , Jason Xu , Leo L Duan

For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…

Applications · Statistics 2022-08-08 Taylor R. Brown

We introduce a symmetric random scan Gibbs sampler for scalable Bayesian variable selection that eliminates storage of the full cross-product matrix by computing required quantities on-the-fly. Data-informed proposal weights, constructed…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-14 Mengta Chung

We provide a flexible framework for selecting among a class of additive partial linear models that allows both linear and nonlinear additive components. In practice, it is challenging to determine which additive components should be…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-20 Seonghyun Jeong , Taeyoung Park , David A. van Dyk

We study the problem of estimating the mode and maximum of an unknown regression function in the presence of noise. We adopt the Bayesian approach by using tensor-product B-splines and endowing the coefficients with Gaussian priors. In the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-03-16 William Weimin Yoo , Subhashis Ghosal

Bayesian model reduction provides an efficient approach for comparing the performance of all nested sub-models of a model, without re-evaluating any of these sub-models. Until now, Bayesian model reduction has been applied mainly in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-15 Jim Beckers , Bart van Erp , Ziyue Zhao , Kirill Kondrashov , Bert de Vries

Many machine learning tools for regression are based on recursive partitioning of the covariate space into smaller regions, where the regression function can be estimated locally. Among these, regression trees and their ensembles have…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-11-30 Stephanie van der Pas , Veronika Rockova

The model averaging problem is to average multiple models to achieve a prediction accuracy not much worse than that of the best single model in terms of mean squared error. It is known that if the models are misspecified, model averaging is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-02-28 Dong Dai , Lei Han , Ting Yang , Tong Zhang
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